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November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF

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On 11/13/2018 at 5:55 PM, Bob Chill said:

All models today are so borderline witb mid level temps that it's nearly impossible to have confidence. The optimistic side of the coin is snow moves in hot and heavy and lasts a little longer than expected before mixing. Pessimistic side of the coin is mid levels don't support any snow at onset and it's just a bunch of sleet before rain. 

Surface temps are no different. The euro had the 32 line straddling the beltway. That's pretty cold man. If the column does support snow and the surface is at or below freezing then it could be winter wonderland very quickly for everyone along and west of 95. 

The basic climo side of the argument says prepare to be disappointed except in the preferred zones where climo isn't so hostile. 

Lastly is precip amounts... this is a juiced up storm with upper level support. Rates look to come in hot and heavy with the WWA piece. So whatever the precip type is its going to mean business from onset until sometime in the early afternoon. 

Gun to head.... Winchester-Mt airy-Parkville line will get 3-5" of various frozen precip types. Burbs and beltway crews in the 1-3" range if everything breaks right but T-2" is prob a better call. 

Fairfax county schools will be closed even if its all rain. 

Looks like I'm going to bust low in the NW zones but not a bad WAG

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Need to put up a forcefield to keep that sleet to the south of me. NWS changed my forecast to 2-6 inches. I have never seen that amount called for before :)

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and snow
  accumulation of 2 to 6 inches
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This band does appear to be pingers, so that should do it. Exciting start, but a bit disappointing here given the obs all around me and the fact that this big band is not snow, but happy for all of you that cashed in on the better returns. Going to hope we get a lot of sleet the rest of the afternoon. Pretty wild start to winter, except it's only the halfway mark of November!

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

Just looked at my records going back to 04-05 and I got 0.25” on 11/23/05 and 0.25” on 11/26/14.  So this is a pretty big deal. 

Unless I'm missing something in my records, this is the biggest Nov event in my yard since I bought this house in 03. I wasn't here in 95 and I was in Frostburg in 87 so I missed Vet day. Very nice Nov event. 

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