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November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF

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18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hearing 18z euro might have been a touch better than 12z. Anyone confirm?

A little colder when it counts. 18z was kind across the board. HRR is looking great last couple runs too. Considering normal high temps are still in the upper 50s, we're getting really lucky to have a shot at measurable. 

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11 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

The snow map looks better. That's about all I can say from my phone. I95 amounts up by an inch. The 2" line went from just SE of 95 to Waldorf-Annap. 

Definitely better than 12z especially along 95 — less pronounced differences for the favorable areas.  Delays the flip to plain rain in DC to 18z (vs 16z at 12z’s run).  Surface is a touch colder too.

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1 hour ago, H2O said:

I just hope they reconsider and close for just rain. That’s for @mattie g

Me too. Just because.

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Prince William County schools are closed tomorrow. 

Cue Mattie G

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Heh...Loudoun and Prince William schools closed.  Why?

See watcher’s post above. 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

DP down to 20. Dropped 5 degrees in an hour and half. Looks good for tomorrow out this way. The latest RAP looks good. DC gets around 8 hours of frozen stuff. Keeps Leesburg and west frozen through the entire run.

Wow.  Still having trouble comprehending this but the whiskey is helping.  36.7/26

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Interestingly enough the HRRR and 18z Euro have very similar flip times (18z) for DC.  Not hating the short term guidance as we near start time.

Yea man, getting interesting for us burb folks. If it's below freezing at onset and ptype stays snow until noon or later it would be pretty incredible. Sleet likes to sneak in quicker than guidance with WWA precip so I'll remain skeptical. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, getting interesting for us burb folks. If it's below freezing at onset and ptype stays snow until noon or later it would be pretty incredible. Sleet likes to sneak in quicker than guidance with WWA precip so I'll remain skeptical. 

Pretty remarkable given the time of year and our average high.  I wasn’t even expecting any snow for the Beltway and was hoping for an hour of frozen before rain.  Latest guidance is suggesting 5-6 hours of frozen is certainly possible.  Imagine if that happens and we score a snow squall as the ULL passes by.  #housemoney

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2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Eh, I don't mind it as much for ice in the forecast.  I'm fully expecting my kid's school getting delayed since it has a large walker community

Hear that!  My kids are rooting hard for anything ice at this point. They know a penguin sneezes in HoCo and we’re closed. They know. They totally know. 

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