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November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF

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Man, this is really turning into a nice event for many, including those near 95. I was intrigued by the shifts models were having last night with the colder setup, but this is a reverse bust type setup thanks to how well we do with CAD. Some decent 850-700mb Frontogen setting up over VA over to WV and will be pushing northward in the next several hours. Expect a pretty solid band of heavy precip to impact the region between 9-11am with heavy snow potential for an hour or two before we start seeing mixing becoming a factor from south to north. Current progs lead to believe a solid 2-4" is possible across NoVa to Central MD and the 81 corridor. Sleet will cut back the snow potential from south to north with areas near the Mason Dixon and NW staying snow the longest, thus flirting with potential for WSW criteria accumulation. Sleet will eventually mix all the way to the Allegheny front for a time before the ULL swings east and we see top-down colder air mixing through the column. Question is, does the best PVA stay to the north, or can we get a solid lobe of vorticity to provide enough lift to generate a line of snow to round out things across the region. The best suspects for that one will be our northern crew, but we've already had a nice surprise with this one, what's another positive to tack on to this system. Glad y'all are enjoying the snow! Go out and enjoy if you can :) 

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9 minutes ago, mappy said:

coming down now, instantly sticking to the deck and grass. no sleet, all snow. 

 Same in Clarksburg. Still all snow in Germantown as I drive south. I will report back where it changes to sleet mixed in when I see that happen.

And for everyone else, don’t forget to submit your mPING reports  as the storm transitions through its lifecycle. Those reports will make the numerical weather forecast that much better.

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