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1st Winter Event of 2018-19 Fall/Winter Season


ChescoWx

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I remember watching that game.  At some point, you couldn't even see the lines on the field.  The sports pundits were ecstatic because they felt it represented "real" football! :lol:

Crazy (and fun) to play in no doubt. We had to take a family member to the airport for a 5 pm flight - took 2 hours to get there, fortunately the back roads weren't jammed up.

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30 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

That might be a little harsh, imo. More of a group responsibility - there are probably people out there who shouldn't drive in snow, which doesn't help. The snow came down hard and with the latent ground heat melting the bottom layer with all that compression on top, you get effectively a sheet of ice. December 8th 2013 was a lot like this storm - 1st snow of the season, came down hard, forecast was underdone, and people in general were unprepared. With all the cars on the road and gridlocked it's hard for plows and salt trucks to make a difference. If you read people like HM on Twitter you might have been aware of the potential for heavy snow in the mid day to afternoon, but even with that, it's just potential, it's the weather. So I can imagine PennDOT might have been under prepared, but so were many others, and even then I'm not sure how you overcome 2" an hour rates with roads packed with traffic in the middle of the day. Glad you made it home okay!

Most people are going to blame the forecasters in this situation because, well, they got it completely wrong! BUT, this was such a volatile system where the mid-levels were razor sharp between snow and sleet. Not to mention the CAD overperformed, which is often the case. AND snow ratios were no where near 8:1 but more like 10-12:1 with the crazy snow growth and frontogenesis. For many of us in the NW burbs it was a matter of being a couple inches off. For those down towards Philly the bust was even bigger. It should be a storm that many of us learn from.

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As of 6 am here in East Nantmeal Township in Chester County just light snow now - however, since midnight we have picked up another 1.3" of wet snow with temps just above freezing. This now brings our snowstorm total to 7.3" this now moves this storm past the 7.0" that fell on 11/26/38 into 3rd place all-time for greatest November snowstorms in Chester County history dating back to 1894. Behind only the 9.5" that fell on November 15, 1906 and the 8.6" that fell on November 6, 1953 - mighty impressive event. 

2018-11-16 05.54.32.jpg

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Just now, Newman said:

Most people are going to blame the forecasters in this situation because, well, they got it completely wrong! BUT, this was such a volatile system where the mid-levels were razor sharp between snow and sleet. Not to mention the CAD overperformed, which is often the case. AND snow ratios were no where near 8:1 but more like 10-12:1 with the crazy snow growth and frontogenesis. For many of us in the NW burbs it was a matter of being a couple inches off. For those down towards Philly the bust was even bigger. It should be a storm that many of us learn from.

I heard some ad hoc discussion by a broadcast met about evaporative cooling, which makes sense if you have a dynamic system.

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6 minutes ago, Newman said:

Most people are going to blame the forecasters in this situation because, well, they got it completely wrong! BUT, this was such a volatile system where the mid-levels were razor sharp between snow and sleet. Not to mention the CAD overperformed, which is often the case. AND snow ratios were no where near 8:1 but more like 10-12:1 with the crazy snow growth and frontogenesis. For many of us in the NW burbs it was a matter of being a couple inches off. For those down towards Philly the bust was even bigger. It should be a storm that many of us learn from.

Agree the snow was quite powdery and easy to shovel at first, if u got to it early before the sleet fest. But we didn’t get much freezing rain just freezing drizzle. And now the backedge is moving through we picked up another 1.5 so I’m going with 8.5 total snow. I’ll take it for November 

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1 minute ago, penndotguy said:

Agree the snow was quite powdery and easy to shovel at first, if u got to it early before the sleet fest. But we didn’t get much freezing rain just freezing drizzle. And now the backedge is moving through we picked up another 1.5 so I’m going with 8.5 total snow. I’ll take it for November 

Yeah I did some shovelling right before it changed to rain here and was reminded how dense and heavy sleet is, lol.

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1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

That might be a little harsh, imo. More of a group responsibility - there are probably people out there who shouldn't drive in snow, which doesn't help. The snow came down hard and with the latent ground heat melting the bottom layer with all that compression on top, you get effectively a sheet of ice. December 8th 2013 was a lot like this storm - 1st snow of the season, came down hard, forecast was underdone, and people in general were unprepared. With all the cars on the road and gridlocked it's hard for plows and salt trucks to make a difference. If you read people like HM on Twitter you might have been aware of the potential for heavy snow in the mid day to afternoon, but even with that, it's just potential, it's the weather. So I can imagine PennDOT might have been under prepared, but so were many others, and even then I'm not sure how you overcome 2" an hour rates with roads packed with traffic in the middle of the day. Glad you made it home okay!

This 100%! You have 8 times the cars and population you had in this area 25 years ago and the same infrastructure. Not to mention people who simply cannot drive in the snow. We are so dependable on the road crews and 99% of the time they are giving it pure hell on the streets in the storm that there is rarely an issue to go out simply to get "bread and milk" in a storm. If you are stuck in the snow in a massive traffic jam, where do you think the plow trucks are? That's right stuck in the same mess as well. Everyone was being sent home from school and work (if they weren't essential) at exactly the same time. What did anyone expect?

 

We can have this exact same storm one or two months from now and you will have the exact same results.

 

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2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Snow has stopped...sun breaking through. Although the amounts weren't super high, it was a great storm! Especially for Nov...

Yep. Temp drop must have been due to the 700mb energy pass and heavy snowfall rates for a time this morning. Sun creeping out and temp up to 34 now. Nice early event to shake the rust off. Hopefully the pattern can lock in for the season and doesnt do that reverse flip that we sometimes see with early wintry weather. 

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep. Temp drop must have been due to the 700mb energy pass and heavy snowfall rates for a time this morning. Sun creeping out and temp up to 34 now.

Damn, if I had a solid camera I would take some scenic pictures w/the sun breaking out along w/the snow. A cell phone won't do it justice...

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With yesterday's 7.3" of snow... this November is now the 6th snowiest November in Chester County PA weather Coop history since 1894. Also the snowiest in 65 years - since the 8.6" that fell in 1953. For the snowiest November? you need to go way back to 1898 when 11.4" fell - of interest that winter 1898-99 was also the snowiest winter in history with 95.0" falling

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5 hours ago, Stormman96 said:

Wow looks like another 1-2 fell overnight on top of the 7.5 I measured in the early evening here.  So final total about 8-9 here in quakertown 

I was wondering if anything happened with the ULL passage early this morning there's my answer

Numbers are close to frankenstorm 2011. I wonder what the odds are of two such anomalous events in Oct Nov in a span of eight years.

Also what a difference close to three weeks makes in regards to leaf drop and power outages. Never forget my 8 days without power there.

 

 

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3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Looking back, there's a pretty good correlation between good winters and November snowfall in the Philadelphia area. It's honestly almost unanimously the case...

We must be looking at different areas and research points?

Eta: I'm looking broadly at moderate el Nino years and novembers qith large snowfalls in philly.

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Here is the snow pile yesterday shortly after things changed over to rain. I mentioned in October that the critters here have been going to town eating this fall - the squirrels in particular are looking pretty husky. Apparently the Squirrel Weather Network has the goods...not sure if the call was for an early snow or a long winter. Hopefully both B).

snowpile_11-15-18.thumb.jpg.54ee9847654b6008b59387b9f9b9a221.jpg

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19 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Here is the snow pile yesterday shortly after things changed over to rain. I mentioned in October that the critters here have been going to town eating this fall - the squirrels in particular are looking pretty husky. Apparently the Squirrel Weather Network has the goods...not sure if the call was for an early snow or a long winter. Hopefully both B).

snowpile_11-15-18.thumb.jpg.54ee9847654b6008b59387b9f9b9a221.jpg

I was just thinking of your winter "snow pile" as I was driving through my local shopping center seeing large mounds of snow. It would be cool if this one would be "only one" for this winter (no matter how small it gets) and just keep replenishing after each storm. However, it look like this pile will die before any additional snow. 

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

I was just thinking of your winter "snow pile" as I was driving through my local shopping center seeing large mounds of snow. It would be cool if this one would be "only one" for this winter (no matter how small it gets) and just keep replenishing after each storm. However, it look like this pile will die before any additional snow. 

It's dense but I figured about 2 weeks, so probably.....

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