ChescoWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco with 6z GFS/NAM combo has: Sleet/Snow mix arriving by 9am tomorrow temp at 30.7 Mod sleet by noon temp 31.3 Heavy Sleet at 2pm temp 31.6 (0.56" of w.e.) Heavy Sleet/ZR mix at 6pm temp 31.3 (0.86" of w.e.) ZR at 9pm ending temp 31.7 Plain rain by midnight temp 32.6 Heavy Rain at 3am temp 33.6 (1.40" w.e.) Back to Heavy Rain/Snow mix at 6am temp 33.8 (1.80" w.e.) Ends by 7am total precip w.e. 1.92" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just glanced at the 6z euro. Caving to the gfs more tucked and warmer solution. Winter of yore or winter of the tease coming? If we put the experimental gfs mid range and euro on lockdown maybe we can avoid the teases.....euro has been bad dating back to 2 seasons with last minute caving and I can already see the new gfs has a cold bias in medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: reJust glanced at the 6z euro. Caving to the gfs more tucked and warmer solution. Winter of yore or winter of the tease coming? If we put the experimental gfs mid range and euro on lockdown maybe we can avoid the teases.....euro has been bad dating back to 2 seasons with last minute caving and I can already see the new gfs has a cold bias in medium range. 6z Euro really not much of a cave although the snow totals are ridiculous as it is counting sleet as snow...even EPS has 5" at Coatesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: 6z Euro really not much of a cave although the snow totals are ridiculous as it is counting sleet as snow...even EPS has 5" at Coatesville Was more or less referring to slp positioning and more importantly warm tongue blasting thru at 850 mb now. Lots of sleet (to rain far SE PA) for many outside of the mountains and high high hills of interior and N PA. Those euro snow maps (among others) are laughable quite honestly and should be discontinued until sleet and fzra are eliminated from the algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 ^^^Btw that is the 0z euro u posted not the 6z. 6z cut totals by like 2/3s across most of PA outside of the Apps. 6z was a huge cave. I would post map but from a pay site and policy violation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Was more or less referring to slp positioning and more importantly warm tongue blasting thru at 850 mb now. Lots of sleet (to rain far SE PA) for many outside of the mountains and high high hills of interior and N PA. Those euro snow maps (among others) are laughable quite honestly and should be discontinued until sleet and fzra are eliminated from the algorithm. Agreed, doesn't take the warm tongue into account at all. Now 3-6" of heavy wet snow and sleet can definitely cause issues so people shouldn't be sleeping on this in the N and W areas. But this should be more hyped as an ice/sleet storm than snow storm imo. I don't think anyone in this area sees close to a foot. And I certainly don't see 3-6" from Philly and along the Delaware. I do think the low level cold may actually be underdone(closer to the para gfs/euro)though as usually the case in these situations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Yeah, I still see slopfest written all over this one. Good thing JB didn't forecast a November to remember... could have set a record for earliest season bust ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 New nam holds serve temp wise but actually is a pretty good solution. Mostly frozen for everyone N and W of the delaware before being dryslotted. Now the NAM is the only one really showing this dry slot but would be a good solution for most imo very limited plain rain save for S jersey. Not much snow but at least it's frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Since this is a daytime event mostly I will point out sun angle is generally the same now as the the last few days of January or first couple days of Feb so that should be a non factor anyway. Travel has a decent chance of being impacted n and w especially if road crews just shrug this one off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 CMC and OP GFS way warmer at the surface at 12 for most of the area. Even the pocono's change over to rain eventually and most start as sleet with no snow. This one is trending in the wrong direction to even see a few flakes on the onset for SE PA. There will be a ton of virga and by the time the column moistens enough, mid levels are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, The Iceman said: CMC and OP GFS way warmer at the surface at 12 for most of the area. Even the pocono's change over to rain eventually and most start as sleet with no snow. This one is trending in the wrong direction to even see a few flakes on the onset for SE PA. There will be a ton of virga and by the time the column moistens enough, mid levels are too warm. I fear this is the groundwork we are laying down early for this upcoming season. Didnt like the mid range teaser but more disturbing imo is the last minute shift to an inside runner (slp almost right over the Del River now on the approach) and lack of ull influence. As u said....wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Since this is a daytime event mostly I will point out sun angle is generally the same now as the the last few days of January or first couple days of Feb so that should be a non factor anyway. Travel has a decent chance of being impacted n and w especially if road crews just shrug this one off.Nah, we don’t use this sub forum thankfully or a lot would be shrugged off. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Made adjustments for the upcoming winter, disregard Euro and new GFS and you should be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Continue to think this is mainly a sleet event N and W of Philly...with minimal snow even in burbs at the onset. The dry air drilling in however is impressive - but overrunning will get things going a bit earlier than modeled. With low DPs... temps will fall at onset and be slow to rise...hopefully the cold air gets scoured out before evening rush hour or else it will not be a pretty one out in the philly burbs as we transition to non-solid by late PM. By the way I for one think these early storms bode quite well for an active season with well above normal snowfall. I am working up my local winter forecast for the local paper and think we do a bit better than even last year's 59" of snow out here....just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 The latest 12z Euro Kuchera maps which account for sleet and LL thermals - a little more realistic but IMHO still a bit high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Continue to think this is mainly a sleet event N and W of Philly...with minimal snow even in burbs at the onset. The dry air drilling in however is impressive - but overrunning will get things going a bit earlier than modeled. With low DPs... temps will fall at onset and be slow to rise...hopefully the cold air gets scoured out before evening rush hour or else it will not be a pretty one out in the philly burbs as we transition to non-solid by late PM. By the way I for one think these early storms bode quite well for an active season with well above normal snowfall. I am working up my local winter forecast for the local paper and think we do a bit better than even last year's 59" of snow out here....just my 2 cents.Agree. 2 or 3 inches tops, then lots of sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3-5" SEPA is a significant and rare event for the first half of November if it happens. Never mind the fantasy runs of a major snow the para GFS and Euro printed out the last couple days this would be a great start to winter. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018111412/pennsylvania/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20181116-0000z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just for giggles the Ukie has the insane snow totals for tomorrow the para GFS is holding onto it's posted in the MA forum. I understand the para is not operational yet and has things to be ironed out but what's wrong with the Ukmet? 10-14" in the Lehigh Valley lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 35 minutes ago, RedSky said: 3-5" SEPA is a significant and rare event for the first half of November if it happens. Never mind the fantasy runs of a major snow the para GFS and Euro printed out the last couple days this would be a great start to winter. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018111412/pennsylvania/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20181116-0000z.html Where in se pa do you see 3-5 snow ? Im in quakertown area. An even here looks like very little snow an mostly sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I will say I did not anticipate the euro holding serve and the ukie coming aboard. Very early season battle of the Foreign and North american models. NAM is actually kind of in between the two. It may end up being the best solution of every model honestly... Euro not budging on low level and mid level temps though is encouraging. I think the key will be getting radiational cooling tonight.. if the cloud deck moves in too early overnight then it may really hurt frozen chances for 95 and snow chances for much of the LV(mostly sleet). If areas around 95 can get down to 25F tonight, things will be looking pretty good imo. Right now NWS is projecting 27 for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 FWIW the WRF Meso models are all pretty significant hits including sleet. I think I would still knock off 40% of what is put out on the map but would still be a pretty nice hit for 95 N and W. 18z and 00z will be very interesting as we approach nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Fwiw going back to last winter and the Euro's inconsistencies leading up to an event, it was usually pretty well dialed in by 24 hours before. Still probably at the high end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Wxsim with 12z GFS/NAM went colder for NW Chesco - now shows temps staying below freezing thru entire event with 1.64" falling - looks like about 0.80" falling as IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 18z NAM has the high a bit slower to scoot off the coast...looks a tad colder from 12z. should be a significant hit for the lehigh valley even with the sleet changeover. Much of 95 stays frozen as well. Even with 3:1 sleet ratios, would still be 2-3" for much of 95 over a 6 hour period. Would be a commute home from hell. Roads in NJ have been treated already in the capitol, didn't notice any treatment in lower bucks yet though. This solution was definitely a slight nod towards the euro imo especially with the low level cold. Snow to start also looks back in the picture after 12z looked like sleet even to start for much of 95. Hopefully the start of a cave in to the euro and not a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 18z NAM looks like the UKMET and should raise some eyebrows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: 18z NAM looks like the UKMET and should raise some eyebrows All frozen thru hour 32.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 NE PA and Lehigh Valley get absolutely smoked. 3-6"+ of snow followed by a potentially significant ice storm. 32 line never gets above ABE and its really 33-34 at that time at 95... very close to being freezing throughout most or all of the precip even down in Philly. I think this will be a nowcast tomorrow morning based on how low we are able to cool off tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 NE PA and Lehigh Valley get absolutely smoked. 3-6"+ of snow followed by a potentially significant ice storm. 32 line never gets above ABE and its really 33-34 at that time at 95... very close to being freezing throughout most or all of the precip even down in Philly. I think this will be a nowcast tomorrow morning based on how low we are able to cool off tonight...Getting really interesting real fast for up here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: Getting really interesting real fast for up here . Tony, Are you going to update your totals in your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Tony, Are you going to update your totals in your forecast? Yeah wanna see if the GFS gets any colder.WWAs up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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