11/14/18-11/15/18 Winter storm/Flood (Ice/sleet) thread and obs

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

2 hours ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Its the temperature at witch air can no longer hold water vapor that turns to liquid the dew point is always equal too or lower than the temperature. In this case the lower the dp the better if you like ice/sleet. For Example. If your outside temp is 40° and dp is 30° As rain begins to fall it cools the atmosphere to near the dp temp to achieve 100% humidity. So your temp basically will be equal or a degree or two higher of the dewpoint. I'm not a great teacher sorry just a country boy lol

To find the wet-bulb temperature you take the difference between the actual temperature and the dew point and divide it by 3. Then you subtract it from the actual temp. In other words a temp of 42 degrees with a dew point of 30 degrees would yield a wet bulb of 38 degrees. This is a down and dirty way of knowing what you will be able to achieve by evaporational cooling from precipitation. 

[The Alchemist]

Sitting at 36.2/35.8 here in Saluda NC, Might not amount to anything down this way but a cold rain....

[McDowell_Weather]

4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

To find the wet-bulb temperature you take the difference between the actual temperature and the dew point and divide it by 3. Then you subtract it from the actual temp. In other words a temp of 42 degrees with a dew point of 30 degrees would yield a wet bulb of 38 degrees. This is a down and dirty way of knowing what you will be able to achieve by evaporational cooling from precipitation. 

thanks man learned somthing new i always wondered the math behind it.

[WeatherHawk]

Does anyone have any IP/ZR total maps?  Just wanting to see how much we're talking about here...one guy told me today that upper elevations could receive up to .60-.75"....is that accurate?

[McDowell_Weather]

39°/36°

[Buddy1987]

I’m not usually Mr negative. But right now I smell big bust for most of the area including all the way up my way. I’m currently at 42/29. Based on wet bulb my temp only gets down to 37. I’m not sure if I’m missing something, as I am all over this stuff constantly but to me thus far the CAD is over modeled. Anyone have anything different to add?

[McDowell_Weather]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

I’m not usually Mr negative. But right now I smell big bust for most of the area including all the way up my way. I’m currently at 42/29. Based on wet bulb my temp only gets down to 37. I’m not sure if I’m missing something, as I am all over this stuff constantly but to me thus far the CAD is over modeled. Anyone have anything different to add?

I feel ya its just climo...

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I’m not usually Mr negative. But right now I smell big bust for most of the area including all the way up my way. I’m currently at 42/29. Based on wet bulb my temp only gets down to 37. I’m not sure if I’m missing something, as I am all over this stuff constantly but to me thus far the CAD is over modeled. Anyone have anything different to add?

Really shocked you’re at 42. I’m already at 38 down here. 

[McDowell_Weather]

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Really shocked you’re at 42. I’m already at 38 down here. 

Gsp said after midnight till we get around freezing for our area i guess well see...

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Really shocked you’re at 42. I’m already at 38 down here. 

I am as well. I’ve checked multiple times on accuweather and then wunderground for some weather stations around my neighborhood. Closest one just went from 42 to 40 within like the last 15 min but still that gets us nowhere close to where I thought we would be. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Beech Mtn NC down to 27 degrees already.

[NavarreDon]

1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

To find the wet-bulb temperature you take the difference between the actual temperature and the dew point and divide it by 3. Then you subtract it from the actual temp. In other words a temp of 42 degrees with a dew point of 30 degrees would yield a wet bulb of 38 degrees. This is a down and dirty way of knowing what you will be able to achieve by evaporational cooling from precipitation. 

https://www.weather.gov/epz/wxcalc_rh

[Buddy1987]

20 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Really shocked you’re at 42. I’m already at 38 down here. 

I will say the 0z nam nest and the HRRR is looking good up this way at least. Will be interesting if I am awoken by pingers later on.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

29 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Beech Mtn NC down to 27 degrees already.

Edit: now down to 26 degrees

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Looks like sleet falling in Boone per webcams

[JoshM]

Are we getting HRRR'd now? Showing some Frozen precip into the upstate

[GunBlade]

Not that we will get anything here in Matthews area but you can see how and why places will from our observation station.  You can see the cold dry air being pumped in from the NNE.  Our DP sat at 42 basically all day and then dropped down to 38 in the matter of an hour.  That’s big for areas only a few degrees cooler than us.  If you’re not to freezing yet you probably will be bc of the supply of the cold dry air. 

[Buckethead]

Currently raining in Wolf, 29.0/28.2° and the porch is freezing over.

[MotoWeatherman]

Freezing rain here at 4650 on Beech.  30.9.  While it's 24.9 at the top of Beech.

[McDowell_Weather]

National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1052 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure crossing New England tonight will create a cool
wedge of air into the Carolinas as low pressure approaches from the
south with widespread rain.  Freezing rain and sleet also will
develop where temperatures fall to near or below freezing. Cool and
dry high pressure moves over our region for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1050 PM: Widespread light rain has filled in across the FA
with freezing rain noted across elevations above 3000 to 4000 feet.
Have tweaked winds, mainly across higher elevations where gusts
between 30 to 40 mph are likely later tonight. Otherwise the
forecast continues to be in remarkably good agreement with
observations. Some of the latest guidance comes in a touch colder
than what is currently forecast tonight. This will be watched
closely, especially mountains and foothills where freezing precip is
of highest concern.

[GunBlade]

Also colder here than latest HRRR run depicting.  We were already at 39 in Union County for this 03z image which has the 40 degree line well north of us....

And down to 38/38 now which is probably a good 3 hours ahead of when the HRRR has us getting there  

[Buckethead]

There's already a good .10" of ice covering elevated surfaces up here.  29.2/28

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Only expecting cold rain here in Easley, but currently 39/37 with heavy rain. Lovely evening!

[GunBlade]

Crazy thing CADs are.  SPC website is way off on current sfc tmp/dp predictions as well.  Though 925’s have made a big dive down just in the past cpl hours which is a good visual of the cool air pumping in. 

[Boonelight]

30° here east of Boone. Light glaze on my deck and on the trees. Rain is starting to pick up.

[McDowell_Weather]

21 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Also colder here than latest HRRR run depicting.  We were already at 39 in Union County for this 03z image which has the 40 degree line well north of us....

And down to 38/38 now which is probably a good 3 hours ahead of when the HRRR has us getting there  

Its giving us the classic finger lol

[McDowell_Weather]

36°/34°

[BIG FROSTY]

Lgt rain 36.5/35 

[Boonelight]

It’s a solid sleet storm here on top of a glaze of ice here east of Boone.  Hope it stays this way and we don’t get any more ZR.

29° 8m E of Boone

[Boonelight]

Big time sleet near Deep Gap. It’s getting heavier as I stand out here. It’s actually accumulating on my deck and my yard.

29° Heavy sleet 8m E of Boone