McDowell_Weather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Ice ice baby let's get this party started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 I think the 3k is a good general idea also as others have said watch the dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Looking more and more like a damaging ice threat for the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I don't have much to add. Upped to 0.50" in spots for the southern BR of VA and NW NC. GSP appears to be in decent agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 I'm not to familiar with the wrf any input on verification scores. Dew points getting down to 26 here with heavy rates also 850s along the escarpment looks cold so hopefully we can hang on to some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I think the foothills definitely have a shot. We need to monitor how low the dew points can get as the air pushes in from the north. It would be really encouraging to see some teens/low 20s at least up in S VA as the event starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Watch wet-bulbs up stream and dew-points. That will give us a pretty good indication of whether or not the models are picking up on the cad accurately...... I still can't believe we are doing this in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Dps in the teens imby right as the precp comes in so we can wet bulb down get a good deep cold surface layer hopefully this will verify this is what u want to see for sleet anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I wasn’t overly concerned until I saw the past few runs of the RGEM along with the fact that the other global models ticking a degree colder (which is to be expected in CAD events). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I wasn’t overly concerned until I saw the past few runs of the RGEM along with the fact that the other global models ticking a degree colder (which is to be expected in CAD events). Never fails I'm growing confident well keep some sleet for awhile. But even .25 of zr would be bad to many leaves left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 0z nam coming in a tick colder on dps for foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Nam starting to lock in almost identical to previous runs. Most of the piedmont is sitting around 33° wouldn't be surprised to see zr back toward Winston hp is in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 i wouldnt be surprised to see a lot of locations outside of the mountains and foothills get their first trace of the year at the beginning of this event, the trace being sleet of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I just read RAH's write-up from last night: This storm has all the makings of a classical winter storm with icing over our Piedmont Damming Region. There is the classical CAD development tonight and early Thursday, with cold and dry air delivered from a very strong (1035+ mb) surface high that will become centered over NY later later today and tonight, shifting east to NE on Thursday morning. This parent high is more than strong enough, and is in the classical position to deliver cold and dry air into our region, and it will. We have a Miller type B storm in which the primary low tracks from the Gulf northward into eastern TN, then a new primary low develops near JAX around 06z/Thu and tracks along the GA/SC/NC coast as it strengthens Thursday. This is a classical winter storm track for our region. However, the mid/upper low is a problem as the track to our west and north allows very significant warming in the mid levels later tonight and Thursday (partials for 850-700) indicate 1590 meters to 1600 meters by 12z/Thursday. This means a strong warm nose aloft in which that a warm rain (characterized by temperatures in the 40s to near 50 aloft) will fall into the cold near surface layer (or cold nose). This is a self limiting process to freezing rain accrual. If this were December or January, we would most likely have 20s near surface temperatures, with much more freezing rain. It is not mid winter, it is mid-November. Therefore, this is not a classical time to have a classical winter storm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: I just read RAH's write-up from last night: This storm has all the makings of a classical winter storm with icing over our Piedmont Damming Region. There is the classical CAD development tonight and early Thursday, with cold and dry air delivered from a very strong (1035+ mb) surface high that will become centered over NY later later today and tonight, shifting east to NE on Thursday morning. This parent high is more than strong enough, and is in the classical position to deliver cold and dry air into our region, and it will. We have a Miller type B storm in which the primary low tracks from the Gulf northward into eastern TN, then a new primary low develops near JAX around 06z/Thu and tracks along the GA/SC/NC coast as it strengthens Thursday. This is a classical winter storm track for our region. However, the mid/upper low is a problem as the track to our west and north allows very significant warming in the mid levels later tonight and Thursday (partials for 850-700) indicate 1590 meters to 1600 meters by 12z/Thursday. This means a strong warm nose aloft in which that a warm rain (characterized by temperatures in the 40s to near 50 aloft) will fall into the cold near surface layer (or cold nose). This is a self limiting process to freezing rain accrual. If this were December or January, we would most likely have 20s near surface temperatures, with much more freezing rain. It is not mid winter, it is mid-November. Therefore, this is not a classical time to have a classical winter storm either. Yet they did not trigger WWA or ZR advisory for NW Piedmont. I bet that changes overnight or with afternoon products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Dewpoint down to 30 at Greensboro, was 32 couple hours ago. Still sitting at 28 Martinsville. Even though we have February sun angle, havent had the time to entrench the single digit ,-0 dry arctic air over NE. Which is where the Cad HP is sending us air from. 3 weeks from now its a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Yet they did not trigger WWA or ZR advisory for NW Piedmont. I bet that changes overnight or with afternoon products. Yes, which shows we were not far from getting a big piedmont storm. If this was one month later.......................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 45° rain/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Hrr during the heaviest precp so close......I wish it was dec.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I've had the DP map pulled up all day and noticed just in the last hour or so the 20(s) DPs are starting to ooze southward in central virginia. Actually made a strong push along the coast and sandhills. This should be fun to watch CAD at work so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: I've had the DP map pulled up all day and noticed just in the last hour or so the 20(s) DPs are starting to ooze southward in central virginia. Actually made a strong push along the coast and sandhills. This should be fun to watch CAD at work so early in the season. Funny u said that I've been watching the same thing its the small details with a system like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said: Funny u said that I've been watching the same thing its the small details with a system like this. Educate me on this. What is deal with dew points? Trying to understand. BTW we are at 27 dew point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Man 18z models have really backed off, very little frozen in the foothills !!! Looks like it To my untrained eyes. Correct me if I'm wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 40 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Educate me on this. What is deal with dew points? Trying to understand. BTW we are at 27 dew point. Its the temperature at witch air can no longer hold water vapor that turns to liquid the dew point is always equal too or lower than the temperature. In this case the lower the dp the better if you like ice/sleet. For Example. If your outside temp is 40° and dp is 30° As rain begins to fall it cools the atmosphere to near the dp temp to achieve 100% humidity. So your temp basically will be equal or a degree or two higher of the dewpoint. I'm not a great teacher sorry just a country boy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Highest crest since the 2009 epic floods at sweet water creek near my house. Currently in flood stage with some houses inundated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 41°/34° light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 42/35 Sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said: 41°/34° light rain Going to be close. Razor thin margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Going to be close. Razor thin margin of error. You ain't kidding bro I got headache from going through the sounding's tricky forecast. I'm leaning with climatology on this one its just to early ill gladly eat crow thou lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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