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11/14/18-11/15/18 Winter storm/Flood (Ice/sleet) thread and obs


McDowell_Weather

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I wasn’t overly concerned until I saw the past few runs of the RGEM along with the fact that the other global models ticking a degree colder (which is to be expected in CAD events).  

Never fails I'm growing confident well keep some sleet for awhile. But even .25 of zr would be bad to many leaves left.

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I just read RAH's write-up from last night:

This storm has all the makings of a classical winter storm with icing over our Piedmont Damming Region. There is the classical CAD development tonight and early Thursday, with cold and dry air delivered from a very strong (1035+ mb) surface high that will become centered over NY later later today and tonight, shifting east to NE on Thursday morning. This parent high is more than strong enough, and is in the classical position to deliver cold and dry air into our region, and it will. We have a Miller type B storm in which the primary low tracks from the Gulf northward into eastern TN, then a new primary low develops near JAX around 06z/Thu and tracks along the GA/SC/NC coast as it strengthens Thursday. This is a classical winter storm track for our region. However, the mid/upper low is a problem as the track to our west and north allows very significant warming in the mid levels later tonight and Thursday (partials for 850-700) indicate 1590 meters to 1600 meters by 12z/Thursday. This means a strong warm nose aloft in which that a warm rain (characterized by temperatures in the 40s to near 50 aloft) will fall into the cold near surface layer (or cold nose). This is a self limiting process to freezing rain accrual. If this were December or January, we would most likely have 20s near surface temperatures, with much more freezing rain. It is not mid winter, it is mid-November. Therefore, this is not a classical time to have a classical winter storm either.

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

I just read RAH's write-up from last night:

This storm has all the makings of a classical winter storm with icing over our Piedmont Damming Region. There is the classical CAD development tonight and early Thursday, with cold and dry air delivered from a very strong (1035+ mb) surface high that will become centered over NY later later today and tonight, shifting east to NE on Thursday morning. This parent high is more than strong enough, and is in the classical position to deliver cold and dry air into our region, and it will. We have a Miller type B storm in which the primary low tracks from the Gulf northward into eastern TN, then a new primary low develops near JAX around 06z/Thu and tracks along the GA/SC/NC coast as it strengthens Thursday. This is a classical winter storm track for our region. However, the mid/upper low is a problem as the track to our west and north allows very significant warming in the mid levels later tonight and Thursday (partials for 850-700) indicate 1590 meters to 1600 meters by 12z/Thursday. This means a strong warm nose aloft in which that a warm rain (characterized by temperatures in the 40s to near 50 aloft) will fall into the cold near surface layer (or cold nose). This is a self limiting process to freezing rain accrual. If this were December or January, we would most likely have 20s near surface temperatures, with much more freezing rain. It is not mid winter, it is mid-November. Therefore, this is not a classical time to have a classical winter storm either.

Yet they did not trigger WWA or ZR advisory for NW Piedmont.  I bet that changes overnight or with afternoon products.

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12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I've had the DP map pulled up all day and noticed just in the last hour or so the 20(s) DPs are starting to ooze southward in central virginia.  Actually made a strong push along the coast and sandhills.  This should be fun to watch CAD at work so early in the season.

Funny u said that I've been watching the same thing its the small details with a system like this.

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40 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Educate me on this. What is deal with dew points?  Trying to understand. 

BTW we are at 27 dew point. 

 

Its the temperature at witch air can no longer hold water vapor that turns to liquid the dew point is always equal too or lower than the temperature. In this case the lower the dp the better if you like ice/sleet. For Example. If your outside temp is 40° and dp is 30° As rain begins to fall it cools the atmosphere to near the dp temp to achieve 100% humidity. So your temp basically will be equal or a degree or two higher of the dewpoint. I'm not a great teacher sorry just a country boy lol

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