Deck Pic Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I made an outlook https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/13/washington-dc-winter-outlook-we-predict-snowier-than-normal-conditions-first-time-three-years/?utm_term=.46583f2ca5d4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Nice work, Matt (and Jason)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Very nice Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Awesome job, Matt. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Great write up like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Horrible outlook. If DC gets less than 25" of snow this year, it's 45-50" in the middle ground, to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Well done and well thought out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 hours ago, Deck Pic said: I made an outlook https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/13/washington-dc-winter-outlook-we-predict-snowier-than-normal-conditions-first-time-three-years/?utm_term=.46583f2ca5d4 are you confident in the Dec blowtorch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: are you confident in the Dec blowtorch? If December starts cold that means Christmas in shorts to get that 3 to 4 degrees above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: If December starts cold that means Christmas in shorts to get that 3 to 4 degrees above Man, you aint lyin. That's exactly how it goes down. There's something very real about atmospheric memory over multiple decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Gonna bookmark this for review in April. I guess if people are asking for it, you have to give them something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Man, you aint lyin. That's exactly how it goes down. There's something very real about atmospheric memory over multiple decades. Ha! Might be reminiscent of Dec. 24/25, 2015 when it was damn near uncomfortably muggy out on Christmas Eve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Good write-up, Matt. Can't complain really, especially after the last couple of winters. Even with the +3 to +4 call for December temperatures, the main thing is increasingly colder as the winter goes on and a lot more snow than we've seen going by what you are saying. Looks like you all at CWG are going somewhat more back-loaded on the winter (or at least mostly post-December). I feel pretty good about our prospects for a decent event or two, well into warning-level criteria territory. Take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Thank you so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 15 hours ago, ohleary said: Gonna bookmark this for review in April. I guess if people are asking for it, you have to give them something. You know it is SOP to release an outlook. Whether me or someone else, CWG is always going to do one just like every media outfit. It’s low confidence every year. Which we state clearly. I’ve done one every winter since 04-05. I’d say my average is a C+. I think I’m better than a coin flip or magic 8-ball. But not by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 18 hours ago, Ji said: are you confident in the Dec blowtorch? Not really. But even if it is a cold month, we can usually count on DCA to have a few +16 departure days to erase all the negative departures. you can never assume bust. Because that 71/51 day might be lurking around the corner. Plus the classic midnight high of 66, even when afternoon temps are in the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I read 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The yapping about “it’s a coin flip” is silly and close minded. Three or four posters here have been doing this for 15+ years and have a confirmation rate of 65-70%. That’s not 50/50. They explain in detail what they think the 500mb , nao ,ao,enso, etc will be. Or, they cull analog comparisons based on years of detailed record keeping and analysis. Either approach takes effort and the results are evident. Perhaps we can have one winter absent chirping about “ lucky guessers” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said: Three or four posters here have been doing this for 15+ years and have a confirmation rate of 65-70% Show the stats. Would love to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 hour ago, ohleary said: Show the stats. Would love to see it. Been hearing that forever also. They have been posted many times before. If you have contrary evidence, provide it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 hours ago, ohleary said: Show the stats. Would love to see it. CWG has all my outlooks going back to 05-06. Feel free to look and judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 That's only 13 years Doesn't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 10:13 PM, Deck Pic said: CWG has all my outlooks going back to 05-06. Feel free to look and judge. Will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 10:50 AM, Deck Pic said: You know it is SOP to release an outlook. Whether me or someone else, CWG is always going to do one just like every media outfit. It’s low confidence every year. Which we state clearly. I’ve done one every winter since 04-05. I’d say my average is a C+. I think I’m better than a coin flip or magic 8-ball. But not by much That's fair! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 4:34 PM, leesburg 04 said: If December starts cold that means Christmas in shorts to get that 3 to 4 degrees above I've decided to reverse this to if December starts warm we are going to need super cold to end December to come down to only +3 or 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 DCA at -1.9 through 12/10 the way things are looking the Dec +3 to +4 looks like it might be on the right side of the departure but I'm not sure it can make it that high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Fantastic December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Can someone copy and paste the contents of the article here so I can read it... Washington Post is making me pay and that is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Here is the month by month breakdown: December: Three to four degrees warmer than average January: Two degrees warmer than average February: Three to four degrees colder than average March: We don’t make specific predictions for March, but we do predict it to be colder than average. Here are the predicted snow amounts, by location: Alexandria, Arlington and Prince George’s counties and the District: 18-24 inches Fairfax, Loudoun, Montgomery counties: 22-32 inches Reagan National Airport (DCA): 16-20 inches (compared with a 15.4-inch average, 11 inch median) Dulles International Airport (IAD): 24-30 inches (compared with a 22.0 inch average, 16 inch median) Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport (BWI): 22-28 inches (compared with a 20.1 inch average, 15 inch median). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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