Winter Outlook 2018-2019

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/11/winter-outlook-2018-2019-return-of.html

[raindancewx]

I'm genuinely curious, when you say 1977-78 is a low-solar year, what do you base that on? I don't use solar flux, but if you use the SSN data from SILSO, February 1978 is like 130+ sunspots. Is there some other indicator for solar radiation I don't know about? http://sidc.oma.be/silso/INFO/snmtotcsv.php

1977	7	1977.538	30.6
1977	8	1977.623	43
1977	9	1977.707	62.4
1977	10	1977.79	62.1
1977	11	1977.874	41.6
1977	12	1977.958	61.4
1978	1	1978.042	73.7
1978	2	1978.123	132.6
1978	3	1978.204	108.4
1978	4	1978.288	141.2
1978	5	1978.371	117.1
1978	6	1978.455	134.6

Early 1977 was certainly low solar, but it deteriorated to high activity pretty rapidly by the end of 1977. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I'm genuinely curious, when you say 1977-78 is a low-solar year, what do you base that on? I don't use solar flux, but if you use the SSN data from SILSO, February 1978 is like 130+ sunspots. Is there some other indicator for solar radiation I don't know about? http://sidc.oma.be/silso/INFO/snmtotcsv.php

1977	7	1977.538	30.6
1977	8	1977.623	43
1977	9	1977.707	62.4
1977	10	1977.79	62.1
1977	11	1977.874	41.6
1977	12	1977.958	61.4
1978	1	1978.042	73.7
1978	2	1978.123	132.6
1978	3	1978.204	108.4
1978	4	1978.288	141.2
1978	5	1978.371	117.1
1978	6	1978.455	134.6

Early 1977 was certainly low solar, but it deteriorated to high activity pretty rapidly by the end of 1977. 

 

I mentioned it as such because it was coming out of the solar mimmim, so you are right, I should have been more thorough there.

That being said, it doesn't change the outlook because everything else regarding that season's analog is valid.

Thanks for the comment.

[raindancewx]

You seem like you felt  the need to rebuke a lot of my ideas in your forecast, which is fine. But did you actually look at how cold your years are for Aug-Oct by the US? Those warm pools that I circled are basically the warmest those zones have ever been and I'd say they imply different storm tracks and temperature patterns to what you have.

In my defense, the actual conditions for ASO, look a lot closer to crap winters for New England, even though I deliberately tried to "create" a Modoki look that had the similar warm/cold pools globally.

[BlizzardWx]

Looks like you are going pretty warm and dry for the mountain west then. Thanks for sharing your outlook. 

[weathafella]

That’s a really detailed and excellent write up Ray!   The hard work and your learning shines through.  YOU are now one of our teachers!

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You seem like you felt  the need to rebuke a lot of my ideas in your forecast, which is fine. But did you actually look at how cold your years are for Aug-Oct by the US? Those warm pools that I circled are basically the warmest those zones have ever been and I'd say they imply different storm tracks and temperature patterns to what you have.

In my defense, the actual conditions for ASO, look a lot closer to crap winters for New England, even though I deliberately tried to "create" a Modoki look that had the similar warm/cold pools globally.

That doesn't matter to me.

I am only forecasting a slightly below normal winter temperature wise.

There are a plethora of different methodologies utilized by a number of talents folks, and they all differ from your's, so someone is going to be tragically wrong.

We should start finding out which side it will be shortly.

[raindancewx]

You realize I only went slightly warm for New England right? It's the heavy snow that I don't buy for the coast plain. There is actually remarkable consensus overall on temps. My maps have warm as anything over +1 if you looked. 

For what it's worth, this is the monthly data for Boston so far.

Oct 2006: 61.8F

Oct 1994: 63.8F (x2) 

Oct 1986: 61.9F

Oct 1976: 59.5F

Oct 1953: 64.3F

Oct 2018: 61.6F

Analog Mean: 62.5F

Nov 1-12 Boston High: 

1953 - 53.2
1976 - 48.6
1986 - 53.0
1994 - 63.4
1994 - 63.4
2006 - 57.3
Mean:  56.5

2018 - 57.3

1953 (53.2F), 1976 (48.6F), 1977 (58.F)---> Blend is 53.4F

I guess my cynicism lies with the fact that my years were out a month before yours but are doing closer to actual figures so far. I'm sure there will be months when I'm off by miles, but so far, so good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You realize I only went slightly warm for New England right? It's the heavy snow that I don't buy for the coast plain. There is actually remarkable consensus overall on temps. My maps have warm as anything over +1 if you looked. 

For what it's worth, this is the monthly data for Boston so far.

Oct 2006: 61.8F

Oct 1994: 63.8F (x2) 

Oct 1986: 61.9F

Oct 1976: 59.5F

Oct 1953: 64.3F

Oct 2018: 61.6F

Analog Mean: 62.5F

Nov 1-12 Boston High: 

1953 - 53.2
1976 - 48.6
1986 - 53.0
1994 - 63.4
1994 - 63.4
2006 - 57.3
Mean:  56.5

2018 - 57.3

1953 (53.2F), 1976 (48.6F), 1977 (58.F)---> Blend is 53.4F

I guess my cynicism lies with the fact that my years were out a month before yours but are doing closer to actual figures so far. I'm sure there will be months when I'm off by miles, but so far, so good.

Snowfall is what people care about, unless you're an energy trader.

I don't care about surface temp anomalies during the fall....I'm not sure how many ways you want me to communicate that. The departure from average in Albq New Mexico, Boston, MA or Tahiti during the month of October or November has painfully little relevance to me.

Good luck-

 

[raindancewx]

Here are the El Ninos with less than 50 sunspots annualized from July-June in Boston, Oct-May basis back to 1892 for Boston:

1897-05-31

43.2

0

1901-05-31

17.5

0

1903-05-31

42.0

0

1914-05-31	39.0	1
1915-05-31	22.3	0

1924-05-31

29.8

1

1931-05-31

40.8

0

1954-05-31

23.6

0

1964-05-31

63.0

0

1966-05-31

44.1

0

1977-05-31

58.5

0

1987-05-31

42.5

0

1995-05-31

14.9

0

2007-05-31

17.1

0

2010-05-31

35.7

0

15 low-solar Ninos in 120 years, centered on 1948. Trend in snow is up since then, so you'd add maybe 15" to the mean of 35". Out of the 128 years on record for Boston, you have one top 20-year for snowfall in a low-solar El Nino. 1900, 1994, 2006 are bottom 20. Only two of the years are meaningfully above average. I'll take my chances with below normal.

[Roger Smith]

I am trying to follow this discussion and I don't understand how the chart of low-solar El Nino years leads to the comments about 1900, 1994, and 2006, first of all, are those calendar year snowfalls or winter snowfalls? If winter snowfalls, is 1900 the winter of 1899-1900 or 1900-1901? Then I can see how it fits the list of low solar El Ninos. 

Thanks. Also (raindancewx), where can I see your long-range forecast? 

Ray, I tend to agree broadly with your outlook although I suspect winter snowfalls may be a bit closer to normal than you're predicting simply because I think the cold, dry air may push out a bit further than ideal for New England snow. 

[thunderbolt]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here are the El Ninos with less than 50 sunspots annualized from July-June in Boston, Oct-May basis back to 1892 for Boston:

1897-05-31

43.2

0

1901-05-31

17.5

0

1903-05-31

42.0

0

1914-05-31	39.0	1
1915-05-31	22.3	0

1924-05-31

29.8

1

1931-05-31

40.8

0

1954-05-31

23.6

0

1964-05-31

63.0

0

1966-05-31

44.1

0

1977-05-31

58.5

0

1987-05-31

42.5

0

1995-05-31

14.9

0

2007-05-31

17.1

0

2010-05-31

35.7

0

15 low-solar Ninos in 120 years, centered on 1948. Trend in snow is up since then, so you'd add maybe 15" to the mean of 35". Out of the 128 years on record for Boston, you have one top 20-year for snowfall in a low-solar El Nino. 1900, 1994, 2006 are bottom 20. Only two of the years are meaningfully above average. I'll take my chances with below normal.

Yo dude let's cut to the chase how many inches of snow is Boston New York Philly and DC supposed to get this winter thank you  no one really gives a **** about the temperature it's all about the snow

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here are the El Ninos with less than 50 sunspots annualized from July-June in Boston, Oct-May basis back to 1892 for Boston:

1897-05-31

43.2

0

1901-05-31

17.5

0

1903-05-31

42.0

0

1914-05-31	39.0	1
1915-05-31	22.3	0

1924-05-31

29.8

1

1931-05-31

40.8

0

1954-05-31

23.6

0

1964-05-31

63.0

0

1966-05-31

44.1

0

1977-05-31

58.5

0

1987-05-31

42.5

0

1995-05-31

14.9

0

2007-05-31

17.1

0

2010-05-31

35.7

0

15 low-solar Ninos in 120 years, centered on 1948. Trend in snow is up since then, so you'd add maybe 15" to the mean of 35". Out of the 128 years on record for Boston, you have one top 20-year for snowfall in a low-solar El Nino. 1900, 1994, 2006 are bottom 20. Only two of the years are meaningfully above average. I'll take my chances with below normal.

How in the world are 2006-07 and 1994-95 included as low solar? BTW, DT also included 1977-78 in the low solar data set.

You seem to view all data through a wet/cool southwest, mild\dry northeast slanted prism. Below normal snowfall for Boston? This season?

Normal for Boston is about 45"....

We will revisit this thread in April, and you finally have to come to grips with the fact that you are wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I am trying to follow this discussion and I don't understand how the chart of low-solar El Nino years leads to the comments about 1900, 1994, and 2006, first of all, are those calendar year snowfalls or winter snowfalls? If winter snowfalls, is 1900 the winter of 1899-1900 or 1900-1901? Then I can see how it fits the list of low solar El Ninos. 

Thanks. Also (raindancewx), where can I see your long-range forecast? 

Ray, I tend to agree broadly with your outlook although I suspect winter snowfalls may be a bit closer to normal than you're predicting simply because I think the cold, dry air may push out a bit further than ideal for New England snow. 

Roger, totally understand going closer to climo on snowfall....I took a gamble there. You can have a "perfect" composite in the seasonal mean to maximize snowfall, and are still likely to verify closer to climo than my numbers. However I would caution against a suppressed storm track in December because the PNA may lack a little, so we may have an element of latitudinal gradient with regard to snowfall distribution. Secondly, show me the weak el nino seasons with a suppressed storm track....you won't find many, save for 1979-80, which was a very marginal warm ENSO event. This is because the N stream is more prevalent than the STJ during these seasons, which breeds miller b cyclogenesis. This also often entails that southern New England endures the system's fury during that crucial time period during which the mid level centers are closing of, which maximizes frontogenesis and deformation potential. Sure, they can still miss southern New England, but its a lot more difficult when they develop in the n stream...its akin to pitching from a mound that is 60' away from home plate, and one that is 30'....its easier to throw a strike from that latter-

[Roger Smith]

I guess his examples are low solar in terms of sunspot minimum between two active peaks (1989, 2001, then 2014) -- 2014 being less active than most of the 20th century. 

However, there are climatological differences between the two kinds of low solar (temporary, prolonged) in terms of background temperatures. 

The current solar situation closely resembles the mid Dalton (taking 1787, 1801-04 and 1815-16 as analogues for 1989, 2001 and 2014), which means we would be around 1820 for a good solar analogue. No idea if there was any sort of measurement on SOI that far back. I have some climate data for Marietta, OH for winters of 1819-20 and 1820-21, as well as some data from Eastmain near Hudson Bay and some notes about St Louis from a former colleague. I see the following info for 1819-20 ... a rather mild winter in general, especially mid-February with readings into the 70s at St Louis and low 60s at Marietta, and very cold in Britain (Jan CET was among the five coldest). For 1820-21, Marietta was colder in January (24th to 26th subzero cold) and Eastmain had a much harsher winter than the previous year, while in Britain it was closer to normal although still slightly on the cold side. 

Using the El Nino low solar list above, another good analogue would appear to be 1900-1901. The period from 1875 to 1912 was prolonged low solar relative to decades on either side. Peaks in 1883, 1893 and 1905-07 were all below the strong category. 1900-01 (if that's what the 1900 snowfall comment refers to) appears to be a rather weak case for a cold, snowy winter. I don't expect it will prove to be an indicator either, in part because of the strong outflow from the central arctic cold anomaly that has been ongoing since late summer. The extensive smoke from western wildfires in Canada and the USA may have contributed to this anomaly as temperatures began to drop sharply in Alberta during a month-long smoky period (sky conditions around August 20th-21st on my return journey home from vacation were similar to what I see outside now, one quarter mile obscured vis in smoke haze -- eventually that started to reduce insolation over a large part of the central regions of Canada too). Perhaps 1902-03 will turn out to be a better analogue, I see that one had a decent snowfall at Boston. Interestingly, 1888 might be reasonably similar for solar, not sure about El Nino. 

 

 

[raindancewx]

I just took the monthly numbers on the SILSO site for each month from July to June. I averaged them into one annual figure. To me, under 55 is low solar. Over 55 is high. The average annually since the 1760s is about 85-90/year depending on the 12-month period you use. So you might call 55-110 "average" if you wanted three categories, but I like two.

1986 had a couple inches of snow in Boston in Nov, and it seems like that looks pretty realistic now. I used the extended BEST Index from Eric Webber which takes buoy and ship data and regresses them, I find it's pretty accurate for the older El Ninos. Oftentimes Boston top snowfall years have solar activity if they are El Ninos. Think 2002, 1977, 2014, 1957, etc.

My analogs had 35" for Boston, which is damn near the composite of the low-solar El Ninos I posted even though I hadn't gone back to 1892 when I did my forecast initially. Keep in mind too, the highest low-solar El Ninos were around -AMO years, which we don't have unfortunately. I went lower than my analogs which is why my map had -33% for Boston. 

Here is the solar data, annualized July-June for 1892-93 to 2017-18.

This is the raw data from 2006-07. Not as low as now, but certainly "low".

2006	7	2006.538	22.2
2006	8	2006.623	20.8
2006	9	2006.707	23.7
2006	10	2006.79	14.9
2006	11	2006.874	35.7
2006	12	2006.958	22.3
2007	1	2007.042	29.3
2007	2	2007.123	18.4
2007	3	2007.204	7.2
2007	4	2007.288	5.4
2007	5	2007.371	19.5
2007	6	2007.455	21.3

Low Solar & El Nino:

El Ninos with annualized sunspots (July-June) under 50 since 1892 in Boston: 2009 (13), 2006 (20), 1994 (37), 1986 (19), 1976 (23), 1965 (37), 1963 (29), 1953 (10), 1930 (46), 1923 (15), 1914 (45), 1913 (7), 1911 (5), 1902 (19), 1900 (9), 1899 (18)

Oct-May	Snow Bos
1899	25
1900	17.5
1902	42
1911	31.6
1913	39
1914	22.3
1923	29.8
1930	40.8
1953	23.6
1963	63
1965	44.1
1976	58.5
1986	42.5
1994	14.9
2006	17.1
2009	35.7
Average	34.2125

 

Hopefully this explains my position a bit better.

[thunderbolt]

Let me understand this correctly what you're saying is 35 in for Boston is that correct if that's the case good luck

[raindancewx]

35 is what you get in low-solar El Ninos in Boston. You can go against it if you want, but you have 15 low-solar El Ninos since 1892, and only two are snowier (+20% or more) v. average. The others are average or below.

[uncle W]

5 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Let me understand this correctly what you're saying is 35 in for Boston is that correct if that's the case good luck

when the AO NAO get quite negative in November stronger blocks usually come in December...Boston should see 35" by mid January with this pattern...

[raindancewx]

You may get more than 35", I'm just trying to point out that Ray had 80-90" for Boston, and 14/16 low-solar El Nino winters have under 45" in Boston.
 

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

15 minutes ago, uncle W said:

when the AO NAO get quite negative in November stronger blocks usually come in December...Boston should see 35" by mid January with this pattern...

I agree with this. I can't wait until I become a Meteorologist. Then I can have proper insights into this discussion.

[raindancewx]

The tendency when the NAO is very positive in October is for the pattern to relax in Feb-Mar in New England, not amplify.

This is the composite for El Ninos with low solar in Feb/Mar after a high NAO in October -

Look I can be wrong, but for snow you are going against 14/16 years under 45 inches. It isn't like the years I posted are all raging +NAO years either.

NAO in low solar El Ninos since 1950 - ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/nao_index.tim

1953   12  -0.52
1954    1  -0.08
1954    2   0.40

1963   12  -1.87
1964    1  -1.62
1964    2  -2.06

1965   12   1.18
1966    1  -2.54
1966    2  -2.02

1976   12  -1.57
1977    1  -1.72
1977    2  -1.00

1986   12   0.83
1987    1  -1.85
1987    2  -1.27

1994   12   1.78
1995    1   0.57
1995    2   0.85

2006   12   1.15
2007    1  -0.25
2007    2  -0.98

2009   12  -1.88
2010    1  -1.80
2010    2  -2.69

Those are your recent low solar El Ninos. Almost all see the -NAO...and yet you still average near or below average snow.

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

You may get more than 35", I'm just trying to point out that Ray had 80-90" for Boston, and 14/16 low-solar El Nino winters have under 45" in Boston.
 

 

Okay now you're saying 45 as the high-end again good luck no disrespect but I'm putting all my chips in Rays corner

[LibertyBell]

On 11/13/2018 at 7:29 PM, raindancewx said:

You realize I only went slightly warm for New England right? It's the heavy snow that I don't buy for the coast plain. There is actually remarkable consensus overall on temps. My maps have warm as anything over +1 if you looked. 

For what it's worth, this is the monthly data for Boston so far.

Oct 2006: 61.8F

Oct 1994: 63.8F (x2) 

Oct 1986: 61.9F

Oct 1976: 59.5F

Oct 1953: 64.3F

Oct 2018: 61.6F

Analog Mean: 62.5F

Nov 1-12 Boston High: 

1953 - 53.2
1976 - 48.6
1986 - 53.0
1994 - 63.4
1994 - 63.4
2006 - 57.3
Mean:  56.5

2018 - 57.3

1953 (53.2F), 1976 (48.6F), 1977 (58.F)---> Blend is 53.4F

I guess my cynicism lies with the fact that my years were out a month before yours but are doing closer to actual figures so far. I'm sure there will be months when I'm off by miles, but so far, so good.

We've lately been seeing a lot of winters with heavy snowfall and above normal temperatures, the new climate.  JFK had a 40 inch snowfall winter with a 40 degree average winter temperature a few years ago in an el nino.  One storm dumped over 30 inches lol.  Big storms are the new norm.

9 out of 10 years with over 36 inches of snow and 8 out of 10 years with over 42 inches of snow.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/14/2018 at 1:11 AM, thunderbolt said:

Yo dude let's cut to the chase how many inches of snow is Boston New York Philly and DC supposed to get this winter thank you  no one really gives a **** about the temperature it's all about the snow

Yep especially since we've lately seen big snowstorms regardless of how warm the rest of the month or season is.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How in the world are 2006-07 and 1994-95 included as low solar? BTW, DT also included 1977-78 in the low solar data set.

You seem to view all data through a wet/cool southwest, mild\dry northeast slanted prism. Below normal snowfall for Boston? This season?

Normal for Boston is about 45"....

We will revisit this thread in April, and you finally have to come to grips with the fact that you are wrong.

And instead of looking at analogs from 50 years ago when we had an entirely different climate I would argue that the last 10 years are far more relevant.  

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Roger, totally understand going closer to climo on snowfall....I took a gamble there. You can have a "perfect" composite in the seasonal mean to maximize snowfall, and are still likely to verify closer to climo than my numbers. However I would caution against a suppressed storm track in December because the PNA may lack a little, so we may have an element of latitudinal gradient with regard to snowfall distribution. Secondly, show me the weak el nino seasons with a suppressed storm track....you won't find many, save for 1979-80, which was a very marginal warm ENSO event. This is because the N stream is more prevalent than the STJ during these seasons, which breeds miller b cyclogenesis. This also often entails that southern New England endures the system's fury during that crucial time period during which the mid level centers are closing of, which maximizes frontogenesis and deformation potential. Sure, they can still miss southern New England, but its a lot more difficult when they develop in the n stream...its akin to pitching from a mound that is 60' away from home plate, and one that is 30'....its easier to throw a strike from that latter-

I think coastal hugger will be much more of a (potential) issue than a suppressed storm track.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

Okay now you're saying 45 as the high-end again good luck no disrespect but I'm putting all my chips in Rays corner

He must be trolling at this point...at least I hope...anyway, looking forward to shoveling the 6" of low el nino solar off of my driveway tomorrow night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think coastal hugger will be much more of a (potential) issue than a suppressed storm track.

Maybe....but even those aren't usually a big issue in weak Nino.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe....but even those aren't usually a big issue in weak Nino.

Yes and if you look at 2002-03 that was only really an issue in December and we had plenty of heavy snow that month even with the hugger track. That Christmas Day rain to heavy snow changeover was a huge turning point that winter.