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11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion


dmillz25

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wow, the snowfall pretty much has stayed the same intensity this whole time.  Can't see far outside my window.

Everything is covered, cars having rough time driving around side roads. 

The temperature has steadily DROPPED as well. Started at 33 and now down to 29.  Hoping to dryslot before the rain comes in. 

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37 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The city is a disaster!!! Busses stuck everywhere 

 

ripping right now with about 5”

Travel by car bus train is a disaster.  Just got out the tunnel into the bronx to an amazingly snowy nov landscape. Thought it might change over to rain by the time i got back outside but still snowing at a good clip. 

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

About the same here, close to 6", how do you compare this to the storm after Sandy?  About the same amount of snow at your home?

 

My home was wrecked by Sandy so I wasn’t in LB, but people who were here said something like half a foot. 

Still snowing a little here with some sleet, but accums are done. 

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On 11/14/2018 at 2:19 PM, forkyfork said:

the timing is so critical with this. it could either be a sleet bomb or several hours of heavy accumulating snow (mostly from the city west). the worst of it happens during rush hour which makes this even more annoying

 

On 11/14/2018 at 6:28 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

The near straight south to north approach is ideal for the city to over perform on these sort of events but the problem is the time of year with insanely warm water temps.  Generally if you are above 44-46 it’s extremely hard to stay frozen for long unless you have a wind on the north side of 040-050.  We used to use a rule that if your water temps were 45 or higher your 850s had to be -10 or colder or you usually switched over quickly with an onshore flow 

:clap:

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On 11/15/2018 at 5:45 PM, Snow88 said:

The new gfs nailed this.

More models nailed it than we realized.  It was just hard to believe this time of year with ESE flow in the mid levels and the surface supposedly going east as well that we’d see anything at best better than a ton of sleet.  I wasn’t so much surprised by the fact the surface winds stayed NE as the last 5 years or so we’ve seen highs seemingly able to anchor better CAD into the metro than we ever did before but how the mid levels didn’t get overwhelmed I’ll never know.  The lesson might be that SE flow in the mid levels doesn’t get underdone by models as severely as SW flow does.  Most showed a near isothermal layer or -1 and I thought that would verify +1-2.   Another interesting factor yesterday was how most stations went 080-090 as the snow moved in and then went right back to 030-050 soon after.  That almost seemed to be some sort of frontogenetical inflow into the leading edge of the snow 

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20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

More models nailed it than we realized.  It was just hard to believe this time of year with ESE flow in the mid levels and the surface supposedly going east as well that we’d see anything at best better than a ton of sleet.  I wasn’t so much surprised by the fact the surface winds stayed NE as the last 5 years or so we’ve seen highs seemingly able to anchor better CAD into the metro than we ever did before but how the mid levels didn’t get overwhelmed I’ll never know.  The lesson might be that SE flow in the mid levels doesn’t get underdone by models as severely as SW flow does.  Most showed a near isothermal layer or -1 and I thought that would verify +1-2.   Another interesting factor yesterday was how most stations went 080-090 as the snow moved in and then went right back to 030-050 soon after.  That almost seemed to be some sort of frontogenetical inflow into the leading edge of the snow 

I hate to say it, but I didn't pay one lick of attention to this until yesterday when the WWA was posted circa noon. Being from Baltimore, I've never seen that much snow before December 1 in my life. Not even close. I even posted on Facebook that this would be a 'very unserious event' just before that advisory went up -- without having done my due diligence -- precisely because, well, mid-Nov. and climo. And it wasn't until around 3-4PM, with temps DROPPING to 28-29, that I truly began to question whether that CAD would get eroded before rush hour. It absolutely dumped up here in Harlem until around 8-9PM. I didn't measure, and not sure what was 'reported' at Central Park, but we easily got 5-6 inches up here. 

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46 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

More models nailed it than we realized.  It was just hard to believe this time of year with ESE flow in the mid levels and the surface supposedly going east as well that we’d see anything at best better than a ton of sleet.  I wasn’t so much surprised by the fact the surface winds stayed NE as the last 5 years or so we’ve seen highs seemingly able to anchor better CAD into the metro than we ever did before but how the mid levels didn’t get overwhelmed I’ll never know.  The lesson might be that SE flow in the mid levels doesn’t get underdone by models as severely as SW flow does.  Most showed a near isothermal layer or -1 and I thought that would verify +1-2.   Another interesting factor yesterday was how most stations went 080-090 as the snow moved in and then went right back to 030-050 soon after.  That almost seemed to be some sort of frontogenetical inflow into the leading edge of the snow 

I wonder if this is a red flag for what will happen later in the season too.

I can remember another season where this kept happening over and over again and the models kept correcting snowier with the night time model runs.................. 1993-94.

If we see this kind of track and high placement  a lot this winter this may end up being like that winter.

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