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11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion


dmillz25

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49 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Might want to go look at CC mix line racing NE.

Looks to me like it hasn't budged in central NJ over the past hour.  Definitely not "racing".  Someone on that r/s line is getting frustrated with the back and forth p-types.

Snow started here about 45 minutes ago.  32 S- with a light coating.

 

 

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Upped totals for LIC to 3"-6"

Over performance, hopefully a sign of things to come this winter. 

"

Significant update based on latest radar trend snowing hand of
heavier precip developing from DC metro to southern NJ, which
high resolution guidance including the NAM/HRRR/RAP bring into
the area during late afternoon and earlier evening. Despite
easterly flow, temps upstream along the south coast of New
England were in the mid 30s with dewpoints in the lower 20s, so
do not expect too much in the way of maritime moderation at
least into this evening. So the overall trend is for colder and
snowier going into early this evening. NAM may be a bit too
cold in the blyr, but we also started out the day with lower
dewpoints and so greater potential for temps to crash close to
freezing with onset of steady precip this afternoon. Period of
steady snow looks to be heavier and of longer duration than
initially expected, and warmer air aloft does not look to make
it in until about 23Z-00Z around NYC, and to interior sections
til late evening.

With the above in mind, issued winter storm warnings for the
interior where snowfall amounts have been bumped up into the
4-8 inch range, and winter wx advisories have been extended
into NYC and Long Island for 2-5 inch snowfall, with the higher
amounts generally farther away from the immediate coast. Also
bumped up amts along the CT coastline, and the coastal zones
could see some 6-inch amounts north of I-95. Timing of snow in
most places should cause significant disruptions to the
evening commute.

Warm/dry slot should work its way in tonight, with precip
changing over to sleet and then freezing rain. Up to 2 tenths of
an inch ice accretion fcst for portions of the interior. Storm
total snow and ice graphics are posted.

Bl should warm sufficiently along the coasts to limit the fzra
threat there. Should winds there not behave as fcst and back to
the N, perhaps due to the influence of a developing cstl front,
a period of icing would be possible in NYC and portions of wrn
Long Island early this eve.

Wind speeds have been increased in the fcst as well. Speeds of
50 kt were evident blw 2kft in the 00Z NAM. The other modeling
was weaker, so for now a wind advy was not issued. Gusts however
have been increased to 45 mph at the coasts. Peak winds are
tngt, although another burst is possible early Fri as the storm
exits.

"

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1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

we are getting bombed right now in red bank in northern Monmouth. couple of inches down and heavy snow hanging on

 

 

This storm is already overperforming here on the south shore of Long Island, very heavy snow sticking to everything including roads and my pond has been frozen over since this morning- where are the plows?

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Looks to me like it hasn't budged in central NJ over the past hour.  Definitely not "racing".  Someone on that r/s line is getting frustrated with the back and forth p-types.

Snow started here about 45 minutes ago.  32 S- with a light coating.

 

 

this is a nice overperformer for the south shore of nassau county, looks like 3-4 inches already the plows need to be out

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