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11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion


dmillz25

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The fact that a lot of the short range models are holding onto the snow a few hours long is definitely catching my attention now. Not sure what it will mean in the long run but the evening commute for many people will be a mess. IMO a lot messier than they thought when they left this morning. I also have not seen much in terms of salt spreaders out but I have not left Brooklyn let today. Should be an interesting afternoon and evening for sure. 

 

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27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

KPHL is currently reporting 32 degrees and light snow. Many thought they would be lucky to see any flakes at all.

KIAD is at 31 and reporting light snow as well.

I work in Pennsauken which is just over the border from Phily in NJ and it has been snowing At a good pace for a couple of hours.  Everything including side streets are covered.

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WSW up for NWNJ.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1221 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

NJZ007-008-PAZ062-160530-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-181116T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0008.181115T1721Z-181116T1400Z/
Warren-Morris-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Bethlehem,
and Easton
1221 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations up to one
  tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris counties. In
  Pennsylvania, Northampton county.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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On this date in 1906, a significant early season snowstorm brought accumulating snow to parts of the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Totals from the November 15-16, 1906 period included:

Albany: 7.2”
Burlington: 13.2”
Harrisburg: 0.5”
Hartford: 5.2”
New York City: 1.0”
Newark: 4.2”
Philadelphia: 0.1”
Portland: 2.2”
Providence: 1.5”
Scranton: 6.0”
Washington, DC: 0.2”
Worcester: 4.2”

Another early-season snowfall is impacting parts of the region today. The storm has already overperformed in parts of the Middle Atlantic region in terms of snowfall.
Amounts included 1.5" at Washington DC's National Zoo, 1.3" in Roslyn, VA, and 1.5" at cockeysville, MD.

At 12:20 pm, Harrisburg and Philadelphia reported heavy snow.

Short-term guidance, including the HRRR have suggested that the earlier suite of colder, snowier guidance for the New York City area appears to be closer to how the storm has performed so far.
My latest thoughts

Snow11152018.jpg

Note: Philadelphia's figure should read 1"-3" not 0.5"-1.0". Allentown should be 3"-6".

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