11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion

[ForestHillWx]

I like the RGEM showing 9" near Stewart, and almost nothing right down the river!

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, Dino said:

Well, it could be worse for the coast.  Looks like T to 2" in NYC.  By the way, wow did this turn into a big one for inland areas!

 

Forecast for State College is 4-6" of snow and sleet so those maps are probably off or the forecasts will end up too low. On this day in 1995 they had nearly 18" of heavy wet snow with temps at 33-34 for the duration.

[NJwx85]

NAM on board with backside ULL snows now early Friday morning. This snow will be underforecasted.

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

NAM on board with backside ULL snows now early Friday morning. This snow will be underforecasted.

990mb low just offshore is nothing to sneeze at. Morning timing also helps.

Additionally, no need to be upset if this is a bust, any frozen precip in Nov is hard to come by. I think we average like 0.5"

[NJwx85]

Snow should come in between 1-2PM from Southwest to Northeast and persist for a few hours. First areas to changeover will be North of Philly into Western Central NJ by 4PM. The city should then mix with rain around 5PM. At that time, the heavier precip should be overhead and signs point to some dynamic cooling taking place. The city and coast should be stuck in a mix until around 8PM, possibly lasting a bit longer before finally changing over to rain. Further N&W, things become icy, with a warm push gradually flipping over NE NJ around 10-11PM. Further inland in places like Vernon and West Milford, they probably never get above freezing at the surface. Then everyone flips back over to snow as the ULL swings through around sunrise and 1-2PM it's all over.

[sferic]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Snow should come in between 1-2PM from Southwest to Northeast and persist for a few hours. First areas to changeover will be North of Philly into Western Central NJ by 4PM. The city should then mix with rain around 5PM. At that time, the heavier precip should be overhead and signs point to some dynamic cooling taking place. The city and coast should be stuck in a mix until around 8PM, possibly lasting a bit longer before finally changing over to rain. Further N&W, things become icy, with a warm push gradually flipping over NE NJ around 10-11PM. Further inland in places like Vernon and West Milford, they probably never get above freezing at the surface. Then everyone flips back over to snow as the ULL swings through around sunrise and 1-2PM it's all over.

Could NYC/LI get anything to stick with the backend?

[Ericjcrash]

36 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It shows several inches

Wrong map

It's not the wrong map. This shows what's on the ground. Not magically 10:1 sleet

[RockerfellerSnow]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

It's not the wrong map. This shows what's on the ground. Not magically 10:1 sleet

That’s not how it’s measured. They measure several times before the storm finishes. I’m calling for 2 inches for Central Park. Heavy wet snow on a cold ground for 3 hours is at least 2 inches

[West Point, NY]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Snow should come in between 1-2PM from Southwest to Northeast and persist for a few hours. First areas to changeover will be North of Philly into Western Central NJ by 4PM. The city should then mix with rain around 5PM. At that time, the heavier precip should be overhead and signs point to some dynamic cooling taking place. The city and coast should be stuck in a mix until around 8PM, possibly lasting a bit longer before finally changing over to rain. Further N&W, things become icy, with a warm push gradually flipping over NE NJ around 10-11PM. Further inland in places like Vernon and West Milford, they probably never get above freezing at the surface. Then everyone flips back over to snow as the ULL swings through around sunrise and 1-2PM it's all over.

You think it flips that late in Bergen Cty? If so, you get a good dump of snow. Would've thought by 8 or 9 the mix line would slide North of you. 7 hrs of snow on front end of this will not be a marginal event. Good luck. 

[Ericjcrash]

 

1 minute ago, RockerfellerSnow said:

That’s not how it’s measured. They measure several times before the storm finishes. I’m calling for 2 inches for Central Park. Heavy wet snow on a cold ground for 3 hours is at least 2 inches

 

And you guys can troll all you want and live and die by a 10:1 map, the same 10:1 maps showing 3' in Virginia.

 

[West Point, NY]

8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

It's not the wrong map. This shows what's on the ground. Not magically 10:1 sleet

If you think the Catskills and Berks will have 3 in OTG on Friday morning I have a bridge to sell you. LOL

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said:

That’s not how it’s measured. They measure several times before the storm finishes. I’m calling for 2 inches for Central Park. Heavy wet snow on a cold ground for 3 hours is at least 2 inches

FYI I could be wrong but I believe you said an Inch and a half way back pages ago in your wager, IF IM wrong so be it but some guys in here are really nitpickers so I don't want you to have to disappear for a month over .50 or a half = just a weenie trying to help you out now back to our program

[RockerfellerSnow]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

FYI I could be wrong but I believe you said an Inch and a half way back pages ago in your wager, IF IM wrong so be it but some guys in here are really nitpickers so I don't want you to have to disappear for a month over .50 or a half = just a weenie trying to help you out now back to our program

Bet is 1 1/2 but I think we get 2

[Ericjcrash]

4 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

If you think the Catskills and Berks will have 3 in OTG on Friday morning I have a bridge to sell you. LOL

I like this map. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said:

Bet is 1 1/2 but I think we get 2

Personally I hope we get more than that but guys will hang u in here for an eighth of an inch,,,,its already a tough crowd and its only our first snow threat. In keeping with the thread I like the look of the RGEM

[cardinalland]

Right now I am looking at radar and the snow / mix line seems to be going from the MS/AL/TN border to Caducah IL in Southern Illinois, while the Mix / Rain line is going from that point to Louisville KY. There seems to be a lot more sleet present than the NAM / RGEM shows, pushing th eline a little bit east. This might not mean much but we could see more sleet than predicted.

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said:

That’s not how it’s measured. They measure several times before the storm finishes. I’m calling for 2 inches for Central Park. Heavy wet snow on a cold ground for 3 hours is at least 2 inches

if 2" falls, that would set a new daily record.

Since 1869, NYC has had two measurable snowfalls on November 15:

1906: 1.0" (daily record)

1908: 0.5" (11/14-15/1908: 1.0")

I'm currently thinking 0.5" to perhaps 1.0". I do note the Euro's much more aggressive solution, but will wait for the overnight runs to make any meaningful adjustments. I do think the GFS might be too warm in its thermal profile.

[NJwx85]

Guys at least half of what those weenie maps are showing falls as sleet or freezing rain. At a minimum they should be cut in half, then you need to take off more to account for melting in urban areas.

[TJW014]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

NAM on board with backside ULL snows now early Friday morning. This snow will be underforecasted.

I need that blue to be 25-30 miles farther south and I'll get in on something

[MJO812]

Para gfs now has a few inches for the coast

[SnowGoose69]

25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Guys at least half of what those weenie maps are showing falls as sleet or freezing rain. At a minimum they should be cut in half, then you need to take off more to account for melting in urban areas.

I wouldn’t expect a ton of melting if the rates are decent given low sun angle and also the fact it’s been relatively cold recently.  Obviously pavement in the city won’t see much but I think it’ll accumulate quickly on the grass everywhere 

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I wouldn’t expect a ton of melting if the rates are decent given low sun angle and also the fact it’s been relatively cold recently.  Obviously pavement in the city won’t see much but I think it’ll accumulate quickly on the grass everywhere 

I'm not so sure it'll stick to the grass at first. Might take an hour or two. A few nights ago with that hard freeze, it was 23 where I am. And the ground wasn't frozen. Also, they're already salting the roads. 

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

I'm not so sure it'll stick to the grass at first. Might take an hour or two. A few nights ago with that hard freeze, it was 23 where I am. And the ground wasn't frozen. Also, they're already salting the roads. 

It's already near freezing and will be in 20s tonight so it'll stick to grass

[NJwx85]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I wouldn’t expect a ton of melting if the rates are decent given low sun angle and also the fact it’s been relatively cold recently.  Obviously pavement in the city won’t see much but I think it’ll accumulate quickly on the grass everywhere 

Agreed but I think the problem is that the heavier rates won’t coincide with the coldest temps.

[NJwx85]

I could see a scenario where the area north of 80 gets hammered, very often the area just North of the mix line sees the heaviest snow.

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's already near freezing and will be in 20s tonight so it'll stick to grass

it will stick to everything outside of main roads

[SnowGoose69]

The near straight south to north approach is ideal for the city to over perform on these sort of events but the problem is the time of year with insanely warm water temps.  Generally if you are above 44-46 it’s extremely hard to stay frozen for long unless you have a wind on the north side of 040-050.  We used to use a rule that if your water temps were 45 or higher your 850s had to be -10 or colder or you usually switched over quickly with an onshore flow 

[Rittenhouse]

33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The near straight south to north approach is ideal for the city to over perform on these sort of events but the problem is the time of year with insanely warm water temps.  Generally if you are above 44-46 it’s extremely hard to stay frozen for long unless you have a wind on the north side of 040-050.  We used to use a rule that if your water temps were 45 or higher your 850s had to be -10 or colder or you usually switched over quickly with an onshore flow 

Does warm water ever enhance snowfall? Is it possible, say, to get an enhancing effect with an ENE wind off the Long Island Sound?

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

Does warm water ever enhance snowfall? Is it possible, say, to get an enhancing effect with an ENE wind off the Long Island Sound?

It does often in western Suffolk in nor’easters but you need a 13C degree difference at least between the 850 temp and water temp for that to occur so generally it’s a system in the middle of winter where that occurs.  You will see places like West Hills sometimes have snowfall maxes during nor’easters because of this 

[MJO812]

DT has 2-4 inches for NYC and a lot more to the north and west

Upton now has 1-2 inches for NYC with nothing in eastern LI