NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:09 PM, Snow88 said: Precip usually comes in faster than modeled with these type of systems so this might help out everyone in regards to frozen precip. Expand Yes but your standard light to moderate overrunning precip isn't going to get it done this early in the season. Really need to wait until the heavier precip comes in and by then the mid-levels are beginning to warm. Think it's going to be mostly a mix of sleet and snow to start followed by a slow changeover to ice and then eventually rain by Friday morning unless the ULL passes further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:16 PM, RU848789 said: 12Z Euro just came out and shows 0.4-0.8", still, of frozen precip up through early Thursday evening for the 95 corridor, before the changeover to heavy rain, with 1.2-2.0" of total precip falling (so over 1" of rain on top of any snow/sleet). Euro has had a similar solution for several runs now and we're only 48-60 hours from the event, so it's possible it'll be right. Euro also showing a fair amount more snow/sleet inland, as expected. Pretty sure the NWS will want to see more model consensus, say, 24 hours from now, before taking a snow threat more seriously for the 95 corridor. However, I could see winter storm watches going up for interior sections if tonight's model runs continue to show significant potential snow/sleet - and maybe advisories tomorrow afternoon for the 95 corridor if a few inches or more look likely by then. Expand It's going to be a very wet system. Some guidance has over 2" LE. Could be a pretty bad situation with heavy wet snow followed by heavy rain (Roof collapses and tree/powerline damage). Hope that the gutters are cleaned out and that most of the trees are bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:20 PM, forkyfork said: storm after storm after storm over the past 10 years and nobody seems to have learned anything Expand they're all over social media and people are lapping them up like a thirsty dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:28 PM, Brian5671 said: they're all over social media and people are lapping them up like a thirsty dog. Expand Correct. That's the nightmare that pops up each and every time there's a storm threat; NJ.com or a similar Patch-like site will pick up on an amateur forecast blog (not like the stable geniuses that populate here) that posts these. Remember the 45" storm that was supposed to arrive a few years ago? It was due to a map like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:40 PM, North and West said: Correct. That's the nightmare that pops up each and every time there's a storm threat; NJ.com or a similar Patch-like site will pick up on an amateur forecast blog (not like the stable geniuses that populate here) that posts these. Remember the 45" storm that was supposed to arrive a few years ago? It was due to a map like this. Expand worst thing that could ever happen...my neighbors last night were talking about a foot of snow--come on people.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:43 PM, Brian5671 said: worst thing that could ever happen...my neighbors last night were talking about a foot of snow--come on people.... Expand Ha! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 So, I guess this will be Winter Storm Avery then for the interior Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:50 PM, CarLover014 said: So, I guess this will be Winter Storm Avery then for the interior Northeast. Expand watches for some areas for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:43 PM, Brian5671 said: worst thing that could ever happen...my neighbors last night were talking about a foot of snow--come on people.... Expand We have the opposite problem up here in the hinterlands. The customary knee-jerk reaction is to bemoan the "weather liars" and then stand around the water cooler preaching about how these things always go out to sea. Don't ask me how that narrative still holds up in the era of 2-4 KUs per winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12z Euro has some high amounts just west of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:25 PM, NJwx85 said: It's going to be a very wet system. Some guidance has over 2" LE. Could be a pretty bad situation with heavy wet snow followed by heavy rain (Roof collapses and tree/powerline damage). Hope that the gutters are cleaned out and that most of the trees are bare. Expand Easily over 50% of leaves still in the trees here in Manhattan. Any heavy wet snow will be a big issue. Even if it’s only a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:14 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Easily over 50% of leaves still in the trees here in Manhattan. Any heavy wet snow will be a big issue. Even if it’s only a couple of inches. Expand Similar situation out here in the NW burbs although we're a lot better off than we would have been even a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:16 PM, NJwx85 said: Similar situation out here in the NW burbs although we're a lot better off than we would have been even a week ago. Expand Stick season up here, even my oaks are just about done. I wonder if with the ground so saturated even bare trees will have issues if enough snow sticks to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:21 PM, IrishRob17 said: Stick season up here, even my oaks are just about done. I wonder if with the ground so saturated even bare trees will have issues if enough snow sticks to them. Expand Up by you, yeah for sure. Amazing amount of tree damage up there last March. The last decade has been horrendous for local trees/forests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:21 PM, IrishRob17 said: Stick season up here, even my oaks are just about done. I wonder if with the ground so saturated even bare trees will have issues if enough snow sticks to them. Expand Sounds like you're a week or two ahead of us further South. Heavy wet snow has the potential to do damage regardless of foliage. Lost a smaller maple tree to one of the storms last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:23 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Up by you, yeah for sure. Amazing amount of tree damage up there last March. The last decade has been horrendous for local trees/forests. Expand Yeah starting with the March 2010 Noreaster it has been quite a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Deep Thunder one from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Ironically I have to drive through Pennsylvania late Thursday night to a storm chasing convention in Indiana. Should be an interesting ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Trees are 75% defoliated in southwest Morris County. Oaks are brown. Few beech have some clingers, but last weekends wind took care of the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:35 PM, NycStormChaser said: Ironically I have to drive through Pennsylvania late Thursday night to a storm chasing convention in Indiana. Should be an interesting ride. Expand You're going to have a hard time making it through some of the higher elevations of Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18z NAM-12km went up in Central PA, and a little in N-NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:48 PM, CarLover014 said: 18z NAM-12km went up in Central PA, and a little in N-NJ Expand The Snow depth and Ferrier maps for the NAM seem far more accurate; general 1-3" NW of 95 with 3-6 in higher elevations of central PA. E: The 12k snow depth maps look much better for PA and NNJ, not really sure why other than it being slightly more generous with QPF and a smidge cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18z NAM is best case scenario. Colder yet, snowing heavily at 54hrs (unless theres a warm layer somewhere ,700, and surface below freezing before a torch and dryslot thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 It would be nice just to see flakes in the air this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18z NAM is actually a tick warmer at the surface compared to the 12z run. Interestingly enough it's also a bit colder for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 You can really see the CAD here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 9:07 PM, NJwx85 said: 18z NAM is actually a tick warmer at the surface compared to the 12z run. Interestingly enough it's also a bit colder for the interior. Expand Yeah, but it doesn't warm as quickly either. City still subfreezing at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Nam is colder for the city with a better front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 What is the mechanism to verify the CAD? HP in optimal location? Downstream blocking? Some of those 2m temps on the Nam are impressively cold for mid-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 RGEM is ugly. Mid level torch, looks to be pretty significant icing n&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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