dmillz25 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 First storm tracking of the season. Let’s hope we all get some snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Mid November potential wintry weather, love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 NAM significantly colder and more juiced thru 69 hrs. Snow on our doorstep, western folk already snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Much improved thermal profile. Clown map for reference (yes I know...Take fwiw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Nam strongly hinting at a decent front end hit before the change over especially N&W of the fall line. Pretty unfavorable track/setup beyond that with the high weakening and scooting east + the track is barely offshore. It's also the Nam at 60+ hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 2:45 AM, SnoSki14 said: Nam strongly hinting at a decent front end hit before the change over especially N&W of the fall line. Pretty unfavorable track/setup beyond that with the high weakening and scooting east + the track is barely offshore. It's also the Nam at 60+ hrs. Expand Yeah. Need to cash in on WAA before dry slot. I'm intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 2:48 AM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah. Need to cash in on WAA before dry slot. I'm intrigued. Expand Any and I mean any east flow and it’s curtains for snow potential on the coast. Definitly not the setup you want for mid November snow potential at sea level with mid 50 water temps. You need a CCB with a strong northerly flow to get it done. I highly highly doubt anyone less then 50 miles inland sees accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Actually think we'll have a better shot with a clipper/Miller B type setup late weekend into early next week. Gfs showing early hints of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Euro. ❄️❄️❄️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 4:37 AM, SnoSki14 said: Actually think we'll have a better shot with a clipper/Miller B type setup late weekend into early next week. Gfs showing early hints of it. Expand I don’t think so this is a much juicer system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:18 AM, jrodd321 said: Euro. ❄️❄️❄️ Expand Colder and more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I assume that the snow, if any will be early before it changes back over to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Things trended a bit in the wrong direction overnight. We need the ULL to at least maintain it's strength. Still potential for a solid front end dump followed by dry slot followed by snow on the backside as the ULL swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I know it’s certainly not unprecedented to get snow in mid November but I’ve gotta day, I just can’t believe we are already tracking a potential. Assumed a backloaded winter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 1:30 PM, NJwx85 said: Things trended a bit in the wrong direction overnight. We need the ULL to at least maintain it's strength. Still potential for a solid front end dump followed by dry slot followed by snow on the backside as the ULL swings through. Expand Models have trended more progressive and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Srefs are pretty snowy for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 2:03 PM, Snow88 said: Srefs are pretty snowy for the interior Expand 88 how far " interior " --> Albany / Cat skills or just outside NYC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Huge cad showing up on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 2:20 PM, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 how far " interior " --> Albany / Cat skills or just outside NYC ? Expand Outside NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 2:03 PM, Snow88 said: Models have trended more progressive and colder Expand Perhaps, but they trended towards a weaker ULL which is no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Will be nice to see first flakes, which is right on time. Usually mid November we see first flakes in their air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12z NAM has about 3-6 hours of snow followed by 3-6 hours of freezing rain over most of Northern NJ and interior parts of SE NY Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Nam holds course. Nice front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Freezing line stays near NYC the whole time on the Nam. Lower 30s for the coast. Interior gets a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 2:40 PM, NJwx85 said: 12z NAM has about 3-6 hours of snow followed by 3-6 hours of freezing rain over most of Northern NJ and interior parts of SE NY Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Expand 3-6 hours of freezing rain is a recipe for a nightmare on the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 2:40 PM, jrodd321 said: Nam holds course. Nice front end thump. Expand Very odd because the 12z NAM snow map on Pivotalweather is showing about 1 inch of snow for northern Jersey, where this one is showing 6 to 10. Is it because this one counts sleet as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 2:44 PM, winterwx21 said: Very odd because the 12z NAM snow map on Pivotalweather is showing about 1 inch of snow for northern Jersey, where this one is showing 6 to 10. Is it because this one counts sleet as snow? Expand and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 2:45 PM, Snowlover11 said: and freezing rain Expand So that snow map he posted is useless. The Pivotalweather one should be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 2:44 PM, winterwx21 said: Very odd because the 12z NAM snow map on Pivotalweather is showing about 1 inch of snow for northern Jersey, where this one is showing 6 to 10. Is it because this one counts sleet as snow? Expand Sleet and freezing rain This is close for the coast. Temps are in the lower to mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 2:48 PM, Snow88 said: Sleet and freezing rain This is close for the coast. Temps are in the lower to mid 30s Expand I don't think I'll get much, if anything. For now, I'm going to go with a very cold rain, with maybe some ice pellets mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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