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Nov 15/16 regionwide event


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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4 hours ago, Blizz said:

Euro map from tonight... 

2s6D-R6QS4WXyO4XMrhorw.png

Note that's a 108 hour map so it's including totals from today for areas getting snow.  Looks increasingly likely I'll wind up with 2-4" with perhaps a little taint at the height of warming.  Western and Central Mass look like nice spots.

 

38*

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You have quite the warm tongue above 850-800 moving in. Always watch that because that can put an end to snow quickly. To me, it seems like we need to see how strong the front end will be. The front end band will also have good lift into the DGZ it appears. It could be nice for a couple of hours before any flip. I could see a nasty IP/ZR event interior from SNH,ORH hills into kevin land. Maybe second area from ct valley drainage? I don't expect a lot inside 128, but could be q quick 1-2 before any flip just inland. 

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You have quite the warm tongue above 850-800 moving in. Always watch that because that can put an end to snow quickly. To me, it seems like we need to see how strong the front end will be. The front end band will also have good lift into the DGZ it appears. It could be nice for a couple of hours before any flip. I could see a nasty IP/ZR event interior from SNH,ORH hills into kevin land. Maybe second area from ct valley drainage? I don't expect a lot inside 128, but could be q quick 1-2 before any flip just inland. 

Will there be enough zr for tree damage?

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10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is pretty darn good for most of interior SNE...and CNE. It actually leaves far NNE pretty dry.

I wouldn't be shocked if this thing ends up a bit more nukey in structure...  perhaps even in now-cast time leads...  Could see it all shrinking toward a centroid over performing low. 

Not many folks acknowledged my sentiments on this things structure, yesterday, so if repeating...sorry.  But it bears some semblance to the mid level evolution of Dec 2005 ... Subtleties (duh) will drive the ultimate outcome and given to the rarity of the 2005 event and the notoriety of stinger wind phenomenon on the Cape and so forth...entirely different headliner content.  However, there are some general similarities ... with nascent polar high in the vicinity/BL forcing over land butting up against the Oceanic boundary layer... while strong mid lvl wind max careens overhead.   Just like back then... the resolution of this sort of 'hyper' gradient saturation event is key ...and it's meso-like requirement. 

That said, the experimental GFS that folks bandy about ... it shows a distinct attempt at picking up on those sub-synoptic scale influences... as it drills 1000 mb low to ~ 988 mb in 12 hours passing from southern NJ to just SE of CC... a proficient deepening that I believe is a result of very upright oriented UVM along that thickness gradient described above.  

In other words, this is trickier I suspect than folks even realize.  

Otherwise, I don't have problem going cold profiles say White Plains NY to Beford Mass axis... Climo of 1.5 S of LI should raise flags too.  Marginal when/with a "correction vector" favoring dynamic obliteration of fragile warm thickness ...at night no less...  If this whole ordeal gets weaker in these immediate ensuing model cycles, and/or somehow finds a mid level trajectory W of Boston than we'll talk ...other wise, this is likely to a cold solution. 

Folks, keep in mind...the GFS has a notorious warm boundary layer/contamination issue... probably related to improficiency with diabatic processsing ... This was quite commonly noted last winter ...and to some degree in the summer with dry BL promoting T1 temperatures of 116 F at Framingham in early July... Unless there's been some upgrades it's worth it to question that.  It feeds back... if it's too warm, it lowers BL resistance ...low cuts in tighter...total profile ends up wetter and probably weaker too.  

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