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Nov 15/16 regionwide event


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ah yeah it was just producing some ridiculous totals that didn't even seem to match QPF earlier this week.  It was saying 10:1 but the QPF maps didn't even seem to line up on TT with these totals.

These are some sample runs from this week...

Guess the moral is take the FV3 maps with a grain of salt.

I’d just be hesitant to blame the FV3 for it. I’m going to assume the model estimates its own ptype now and it defnitely wasn’t showing snow in SC while Cowan’s algorithm had it dropping 11” there.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’d just be hesitant to blame the FV3 for it. I’m going to assume the model estimates its own ptype now and it defnitely wasn’t showing snow in SC while Cowan’s algorithm had it dropping 11” there.

It was giving the cape snow lol. I think it was just the algorithm....whoever and wherever it was created. That’s why we have soundings. :) 

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I wish on Maue's site you could hover over to see values. Sort of tough to see but on the 18z Euro looks like 850's are still marginal? Also, anyone think H7 temps may be a little marginal as well? Was only seeing like -4 or -5? Thinking we could see a nice little thump of wintry stuff down this way on the onset (hopefully dry air won't be a problem), but probably quickly change over here :angry:

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56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah PF, that was more for the algorithm. However it’s done, take with a grain of salt on TT for time being. All these stupid maps are so terrible. We advance the science and these just being it back to 1975.

Finished outlook....out with the long range, in with the medium. I may steal something here the border...

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47 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would think most on here don't need a clown map to figure out their snow totals.

Front end, interior thumper, seasonality in play, I would say upper elevations in W SNE good for 3-4" before freezing drizzle and deep interior lower elevations good for 1-2" before we wet.  Either way it looks like winter cometh this week.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Front end, interior thumper, seasonality in play, I would say upper elevations in W SNE good for 3-4" before freezing drizzle and deep interior lower elevations good for 1-2" before we wet.  Either way it looks like winter cometh this week.

And may not be leaving................;)

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6 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said:

You can’t post it?

A little fyi regarding the ECMWF images...

https://www.weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fecmwf-guidelines

We may go back to blocking all EC images again from pay sites. If people want to share something they can take on their own risk by posting it to their own social media account and posting the social media link here.

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Have been offline for most of non-winter so missed this... what's the deal with 6z/18z Euro?

Is it run off 0z/12z data?

Are 6z/18z runs less reliable than 0z/12z runs similar to NAM/GFS are?

More data sometimes can confuse more than it clarifies, so curious how this will contribute this winter.

TIA

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6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Have been offline for most of non-winter so missed this... what's the deal with 6z/18z Euro?

Is it run off 0z/12z data?

Are 6z/18z runs less reliable than 0z/12z runs similar to NAM/GFS are?

More data sometimes can confuse more than it clarifies, so curious how this will contribute this winter.

TIA

The 00/12z runs of the GFS verify with a better score than the 6/18z runs, but it’s so miniscule now that being 6hrs closer to verification gives the off-hour runs more skill over the previous 00z or 12z run. I’d assume it’s a similar deal with the euro.

All of the runs get new surface and upper air satellite data. The only thing missing are the actual radiosondes.

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