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Nov 15/16 regionwide event


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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14 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I think some spots northern MA have a shot. Euro has been steady with that area north of Worcester to NH border and another jack western MA.

I'm expecting sleet changeover in Boston metro - pike region around 12am (areas close to water contending with coastal front may get slop sooner, but I see that as a different process from the sleet line), and closer to NH border flips by 3-4am.

Heaviest rates of mostly snow in Boston metro 10pm-12am.

In my experience the sleet line moves from Boston to Nashua in about an hr or less 75% of the time when the warm tongue is the culprit

maybe this is a situation where it will be different ?

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22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Pickles and Raul beg to differ...

I bet they do....ooooohhhhhhhhh! 

J/k. If taint holds off an hour than it’s possible in nrn spots.  It’s always tough with marginal events aloft. I’d Debbie this thing twenty ways from Tuesday if I weren’t for the big lift aloft.

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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

Got knocked down to 3-5" with some frz drizzle and rain/snow tomorrow. Whatever. Don't want it yet anyway

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

Blasphemy.

23 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Damn thought there’d be a warning here, but sleet mixes in all the way up here, and freezing drizzle maybe

Well, we have 15 more hours and a couple more glipses of model runs to see if there's any inkling of snowier.  06z didn't get my spirits up for here though.

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15 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I think some spots northern MA have a shot. Euro has been steady with that area north of Worcester to NH border and another jack western MA.

I'm expecting sleet changeover in Boston metro - pike region around 12am (areas close to water contending with coastal front may get slop sooner, but I see that as a different process from the sleet line), and closer to NH border flips by 3-4am.

Heaviest rates of mostly snow in Boston metro 10pm-12am.

I agree. The latitude will help. The btv wrf also suggests eastern/northeast areas last to taint with at least .5” QPF snow.  

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

In my experience the sleet line moves from Boston to Nashua in about an hr or less 75% of the time when the warm tongue is the culprit

maybe this is a situation where it will be different ?

It does. It usually tends to stall a bit near MA border with RI/CT. Though I've seen it slow down too as it nears Essex county sometimes. We will see how it behaves tonight on dual pol. 

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28 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Blasphemy.

Well, we have 15 more hours and a couple more glipses of model runs to see if there's any inkling of snowier.  06z didn't get my spirits up for here though.

I think they overreacted, and we end up with mostly snow and 6", which is close to warning.  It may the weirdly worded zones that mention sleet and freezing drizzle at various times, like ("snow before 3am, then sleet between 3-4, then snow, then freezing drizzle from 6-7...etc.)

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