HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The mid-level warmth I think gets everyone gun shy too. We've all seen too many events where it starts sleeting before you think it should... sort of in my head I feel like there are more SWFE's that have flipped to sleet earlier rather than later... but we all remember the events where the mid-level warmth was held off and got more snow than expected. Its a tough balance to figure out where on the SWFE spectrum we fall on for this event. 4 out of 5 times that warm tongue gets you (at least around here). Those other events are definitely memorable and are always a pleasant surprise. I don’t see that happening this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Anyone notice how QPF is hovering around 1.5 inches now. Serious storm, don’t discount someone in WCT, WMass C Mass CSE NH SMaine getting smoked by a deform band back side. I could see some foot totals coming in by Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 depends where the 700 mb center or equivalent center goes. if the axis of it stays south of the Pike it's not likely to warm tongue much farther N of there... I might be a little concerned with flashing where it snows --> rain then ends as partial clearing in the evening Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Channel 6 out of Portland is a little more tepid than NWS, but he's hedging that he may need to raise it. They also pointed out that if the 10* he's forecasting for Portland, it will be the earliest PWM has hit 10 or below since 1874. Keith Carson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 models may be reeling a little in late innings here as the weight of this nascent cold air gets more physically presented in the grids... The NAM is subtly backed ENE over E (previous cycles(s) ) at Logon during max QPF/ UVM and seeing the Euro's last two cycles tick chillier I don't believe are coincidences. I've been on the colder train on this from the beginning ...just not sure how far that goes. One thing to consider... should that be the case above... we're going to get precariously close to tipping the ageo into an impenetrable wall actually and then we have enhancing meso scale studies with CF to contend with and score maxes [maybe] where none thought so. Like ORH ...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: depends where the 700 mb center or equivalent center goes. if the axis of it stays south of the Pike it's not likely to warm tongue much farther N of there... I might be a little concerned with flashing where it snows --> rain then ends as partial clearing in the evening Friday night. Looks like it will be right over the coast imho, not a good position for good lift, 100nm South, I'd be happier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 18z EURO has me below zero tomorrow morning. jfc. What an air mass for mid-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Anyone notice how QPF is hovering around 1.5 inches now. Serious storm, don’t discount someone in WCT, WMass C Mass CSE NH SMaine getting smoked by a deform band back side. I could see some foot totals coming in by Friday night. Yeah, depending on how the euro and the meso's look in the morning I might lean close to warning up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 As modeled, it doesn’t look like dry air will be an issue. Harv has my area at 4-7”. We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Glad someone who isn’t considered a weenie by Scooter brought up 07 cuz it’s been on my mind all day. Being out on the DL from work means I have been a 24/7 weenie. Seeing 850 and 7 H close to staying off shore as a trend is a good sign. Always am cautious with that warm tongue rushing in, but that dry Arctic feed can fight it off. What is confusing me is normally we thump then dryslot, all the increase on QPF is front end. Models are seeing intense omega. This is a pretty insane profile for ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 18z EURO really likes the ORH Hills, especially RT 2 latitude and the east slopes of the Berkshires for best combo of QPF and residence time below freezing in the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I'm actually in Marlboro Mass for work for this one, should be better than home, i wouldn't be surprised if there was a few double digit totals in the Middlesex cty worchester cty hills here... I'd expect 3-6 imby, gotta teach the ol lady again how to measure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Also consider the DPs are extremely low, so we'd have to rock aloft to get it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 27/6 coldSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Glad someone who isn’t considered a weenie by Scooter brought up 07 cuz it’s been on my mind all day. Being out on the DL from work means I have been a 24/7 weenie. Seeing 850 and 7 H close to staying off shore as a trend is a good sign. Always am cautious with that warm tongue rushing in, but that dry Arctic feed can fight it off. What is confusing me is normally we thump then dryslot, all the increase on QPF is front end. Models are seeing intense omega. This is a pretty insane profile for ORH That looks pretty icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 There’s so much snow coming over the next 7-10 day period for just about all of us except SE areas. It’s insane. Tomorrow night , more Sunday night, sneaky clipper next Wed.. and a Miller A costal possible next weekend. This is how we used to do November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Nice to have the 18z Euro take up some dead zone time............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s so much snow coming over the next 7-10 day period for just about all of us except SE areas. It’s insane. Tomorrow night , more Sunday night, sneaky clipper next Wed.. and a Miller A costal possible next weekend. This is how we used to do November We never did November like that.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I’m a little surprised at BOX’s wording for interior CT in their WSWatch headline?? They mention that travel could be impossible??? Really?? I mean have we become that much of a wussy society now, that travel may be impossible in a 3-5 or 3-6 inch storm?? Just Wow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zand Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Bouchard is bullish on both the totals (6-10" NW of ORH) and more importantly on the backside kicking in additional accumulation. Says the models have no handle on the wraparound and he expects precipitation to change back to snow and it will make a mess on Friday. Guess we'll see on that second part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 How was the euro 18z for Central Park sorry to bother u guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We never did November like that.....lol. Sam Adams and John Hancock did. Yore my friendly wolf. Yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Sam Adams and John Hancock did. Yore my friendly wolf. Yore. Oh ok lol..got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 27 minutes ago, dryslot said: Keith Carson? Not sure. I think when I lived her before there was some guy named Todd something or other. I know it wasn't him. 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s so much snow coming over the next 7-10 day period for just about all of us except SE areas. It’s insane. Tomorrow night , more Sunday night, sneaky clipper next Wed.. and a Miller A costal possible next weekend. This is how we used to do November So, what province were you living in those Novembers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Zand said: Bouchard is bullish on both the totals (6-10" NW of ORH) and more importantly on the backside kicking in additional accumulation. Says the models have no handle on the wraparound and he expects precipitation to change back to snow and it will make a mess on Friday. Guess we'll see on that second part. He is usually very conservative with snow totals. Wraparounds are a myth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: Not sure. I think when I lived her before there was some guy named Todd something or other. I know it wasn't him. So, what province were you living in those Novembers? Quebec. They're having quite the month so far btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: Not sure. I think when I lived her before there was some guy named Todd something or other. I know it wasn't him. So, what province were you living in those Novembers? Todd Gutner is on in the morning, Its usually Carson at night, Skinny with a beard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zand Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: He is usually very conservative with snow totals. Wraparounds are a myth Completely agree, weird to see him going bigger than everyone else. I like what Harvey has right now, but I'd love Pete's to verify. Maybe Princeton will get 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’m a little surprised at BOX’s wording for interior CT in their WSWatch headline?? They mention that travel could be impossible??? Really?? I mean have we become that much of a wussy society now, that travel may be impossible in a 3-5 or 3-6 inch storm?? Just Wow?? I've noticed that wording in a lot more winter weather products of watches/warnings. I wonder if its like an auto-canned phrase that just gets injected into any winter storm watch or warning statement... I mean it's not wrong, travel *could* be impossible for someone with bald tires driving a small rear-wheel drive soda can that's masquerading as a car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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