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Nov 15/16 regionwide event

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

By RUNNAWAYICEBERG,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I was just thinking.  It was about this timing in Novie 1995 that the first latitude dependent mix bag event laid down about 3-5" with sleet crusted along Rt poop.

That marked the end of bear ground until the holocaust thaw of late January 1996.. 

But, that 1995 late autumn was the last time I recall (oh I'm sure there's been others..) a bona fide early, hard neggie NAO to close out a Novie - and it stuck through Dec...seemingly returning there as a baseline.  Not sure what the other indices were doing that year/season ...PNA/EPO... N. Pac etc.. but I recall the NAO was neutral negative oscillator which probably did help along correction event repetition. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just thinking.  It was about this timing in Novie 1995 that the first latitude dependent mix bag event laid down about 3-5" with sleet crusted along Rt poop.

That marked the end of bear ground until the holocaust thaw of late January 1996.. 

But, that 1995 late autumn was the last time I recall (oh I'm sure there's been others..) a bona fide early, hard neggie NAO to close out a Novie - and it stuck through Dec...seemingly returning there as a baseline.  Not sure what the other indices were doing that year/season ...PNA/EPO... N. Pac etc.. but I recall the NAO was neutral negative oscillator which probably did help along correction event repetition. 

I remember it....I think this one maybe a bit more substantial when all is said and done.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember it....I think this one maybe a bit more substantial when all is said and done.

yeah, agreed... I was just commenting 'in principle' re back whence. 

But that year ...I distinctly recall having a feeling it was no turning back...I got that same vibe. Then, I look at these present index progs descending the AO to -3 SD along with a -2 and change NAO ...and forgetting their down there...  you know?  

interesting.  That year was ENSO neutral (homage to our other conversation)...  I think?  I can find that -

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Euro QPF.  

Reduction in NNE but nothing that really matters because the banding signature is still there.  For the NNE crowd wherever that 500-700mb band sets up will be the winner regardless of QPF output.  Should be good snow growth up at that height too, well above any warm tongue that might try to ride up and cause snow growth issues.  

SNE is just all thermal profiles but man at the rate it precips at, even 1-2 hours more of snow could be another 2-3".IMG_1234.thumb.PNG.cd885cfc2e56641097a631d8e77e5c5a.PNG

 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah that 4-6" instead of 6-8" will probably get me to jump off the ledge, You won't have any temp issues, But thanks for bringing your QPF woes with you from Mass.............:lol:

 

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love how he assuages a disproportionate amount of tragic grief with obs

"FML, its not going to snow, whoa is me, need to move east, where is my pistol, so that I can swallow it!!"

26*

LOL to both.  Just took the dog for a walk at the dog park. It's a little nipply out there--need to get adjusted to winter.

Down to 24*.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

GYX going deep and long on both accumulations and taint.

Thursday Night
Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Friday
Rain and snow before 2pm, then rain likely between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

GYX going deep and long on both accumulations and taint.

Thursday Night
Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Friday
Rain and snow before 2pm, then rain likely between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Taintless

Thursday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Friday: Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 30. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
 

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Thinking about 3-6" north and west of HVN... 1-3" for SE CT except <1 immediate shore from Old Lyme east. 

Can't ignore the colder trends and seems like the 3km NAM is an outlier with it's warm pockets compared to models like the ECMWF. 

12z EPS says that will be low :)

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Taintless

Thursday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Friday: Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 30. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
 

Congrats!  I'll be keeping you posted in the obs thread of how much taint I get.

23*

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Feeling good for my area.  Cold air will be firmly entrenched for a while, far enough up and in, good qpf...  Need to hold off the warm tongue for as long as possible.

 

3-5", maybe 4-6" with a crust of sleet before the rain comes in for a bit

I do think pingers get in faster than I would like, but that's ok.   Euro is bullish.  That's all I need to know.  A Friday snow day would be nice, although it is awfully early in the year...

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, agreed... I was just commenting 'in principle' re back whence. 

But that year ...I distinctly recall having a feeling it was no turning back...I got that same vibe. Then, I look at these present index progs descending the AO to -3 SD along with a -2 and change NAO ...and forgetting their down there...  you know?  

interesting.  That year was ENSO neutral (homage to our other conversation)...  I think?  I can find that -

Weak la nina

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