Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Jerry, antecedent day, check Massive omega overcoming thin warm tongue. Check Interior CT Mass warning level increasingly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If we start the season with a SWFE la nina type undertone, then go typical weak nino, I may clean up. 30-40" in the bank by 1/1/19 with SWFEs 50-60"+ onward from clippers and KUs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: 30-40" in the bank by 1/1/19 with SWFEs 50-60"+ onward from clippers and KUs I'll take a month of SWFE, followed by three months of late blooming Miller b, east...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Euro is def colder than 00z. Not sure about the 06z since I can't see it. Has a very strong thump...qpf is a bit less than 00z but still very high and the colder profile is actually what I'm more interested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro is def colder than 00z. Not sure about the 06z since I can't see it. Has a very strong thump...qpf is a bit less than 00z but still very high and the colder profile is actually what I'm more interested in. Yea, the QPF vacillations are noise...thermal trend is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro is def colder than 00z. Not sure about the 06z since I can't see it. Has a very strong thump...qpf is a bit less than 00z but still very high and the colder profile is actually what I'm more interested in. Agree. Maybe a tick cooler at 925 too in borderline areas. Bodes well for inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Hoist the WSW Box. Get em up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 When is the last time we had a November widespread advisory/warning event in the interior...Thanksgiving 2014? I haven't looked at modeling until just now but I like a solid 3-6'' before mess up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 PANTS TENT TO COMMENCE ERECTING. Should we make a separate banter thread for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the QPF vacillations are noise...thermal trend is the key. 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Agree. Maybe a tick cooler at 925 too in borderline areas. Bodes well for inland. Yeah the qpf is still enough for warning criteria for a decent chunk of interior SNE. It's the thermal profiles that will determine our fate. It looks like a place such as ORH over to 128 sees about 0.7" of qpf before the flip to pingers....of course, if the flip happens 2 hours sooner, then we're talking 0.4" or so since the rates are quite heavy between 00z and 06z. That's the hard part of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 12z, Definitely a scale back on qpf in NNE from the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the qpf is still enough for warning criteria for a decent chunk of interior SNE. It's the thermal profiles that will determine our fate. It looks like a place such as ORH over to 128 sees about 0.7" of qpf before the flip to pingers....of course, if the flip happens 2 hours sooner, then we're talking 0.4" or so since the rates are quite heavy between 00z and 06z. That's the hard part of the forecast. Same QPF north of that line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is def colder than 00z. Not sure about the 06z since I can't see it. Has a very strong thump...qpf is a bit less than 00z but still very high and the colder profile is actually what I'm more interested in. Models starting to see for what this is. Congrats 84 on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: When is the last time we had a November widespread advisory/warning event in the interior...Thanksgiving 2014? I haven't looked at modeling until just now but I like a solid 3-6'' before mess up this way. Yeah 2014...then 2012 before that. Then before that, we'd prob have to go all the way back to 2004 (Tday 2005 was more like a 2-4" event and mostly away from coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah 2014...then 2012 before that. Then before that, we'd prob have to go all the way back to 2004 (Tday 2005 was more like a 2-4" event and mostly away from coast). 1986, 2002...notice a theme? I meant to do a blog on why the region would see significant Nov snows before I did the outlook, but never got time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Can anyone throw up a Euro snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same QPF north of that line? Yeah it eventually peters out a little once up into Maine but you're in the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z, Definitely a scale back on qpf in NNE from the 06z run. Buzz-kill. 26* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Buzz-kill. 26* Yeah that 4-6" instead of 6-8" will probably get me to jump off the ledge, You won't have any temp issues, But thanks for bringing your QPF woes with you from Mass............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Models starting to see for what this is. Congrats 84 on north. How about 3 miles south of 84? No snow for you!? ......How low do we go over night is how I like to play this type of system, this time of year. Forecast low of 19 here tonight, if we wake up and it is cloudy and 28. Quick burst of snow to pingers to rain. Closer to 20, then a good 6 hours of frozen should be on it's way, especially with dewpoints near 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Buzz-kill. 26* No matter where you go, you dry out the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Any thoughts on how close to the coast will verify advisory (say 2"+) amounts? If the colder solutions pan out I would think a couple miles W of KBOS would be good for like 2"-4"? Seems like sn to ip flip timing is more of a factor on accumulations than rain vs. snow? Any input from those who ride the line in these situations is appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Spanks45 said: How about 3 miles south of 84? No snow for you!? ......How low do we go over night is how I like to play this type of system, this time of year. Forecast low of 19 here tonight, if we wake up and it is cloudy and 28. Quick burst of snow to pingers to rain. Closer to 20, then a good 6 hours of frozen should be on it's way, especially with dewpoints near 5. Everyone sees their first snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah that 4-6" instead of 6-8" will probably get me to jump off the ledge. I love how he assuages a disproportionate amount of tragic grief with obs "FML, its not going to snow, whoa is me, need to move east, where is my pistol, so that I can swallow it!!" 26* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 i'll be happy just seeing some snow falling...way to early to expect anything more in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I love how he assuages tragic grief with obs "FML, its not going to snow, whoa is me, need to move east, where is my pistol, so that I can swallow it!!" 26* lol, Some need to be coddled and reassured every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, ma blizzard said: Any thoughts on how close to the coast will verify advisory (say 2"+) amounts? If the colder solutions pan out I would think a couple miles W of KBOS would be good for like 2"-4"? Seems like sn to ip flip timing is more of a factor on accumulations than rain vs. snow? Any input from those who ride the line in these situations is appreciated! The non-GFS models are pretty bullish for Boston to see 3"+. At least away from the immediate water. This could def be a storm where Logan out in Boston harbor gets like 1.7" of slop and back bay and Fenway are in the 3-4" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can anyone throw up a Euro snow map? Depends how much one drinks before looking at the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If we start the season with a SWFE la nina type undertone, then go typical weak nino, I may clean up. I feel the same here and for most of the heart of our viewing area. Miss ya Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Greg said: I feel the same here and for most of the heart of our viewing area. Miss ya Ray! I'm still down there alot...most of fam lives there, and I still lift at RMA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.