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Nov 15/16 regionwide event


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is def colder than 00z. Not sure about the 06z since I can't see it. 

Has a very strong thump...qpf is a bit less than 00z but still very high and the colder profile is actually what I'm more interested in. 

Yea, the QPF vacillations are noise...thermal trend is the key.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is def colder than 00z. Not sure about the 06z since I can't see it. 

Has a very strong thump...qpf is a bit less than 00z but still very high and the colder profile is actually what I'm more interested in. 

Agree. Maybe a tick cooler at 925 too in borderline areas. Bodes well for inland.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the QPF vacillations are noise...thermal trend is the key.

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Agree. Maybe a tick cooler at 925 too in borderline areas. Bodes well for inland.

Yeah the qpf is still enough for warning criteria for a decent chunk of interior SNE. It's the thermal profiles that will determine our fate. It looks like a place such as ORH over to 128 sees about 0.7" of qpf before the flip to pingers....of course, if the flip happens 2 hours sooner, then we're talking 0.4" or so since the rates are quite heavy between 00z and 06z. That's the hard part of the forecast. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah the qpf is still enough for warning criteria for a decent chunk of interior SNE. It's the thermal profiles that will determine our fate. It looks like a place such as ORH over to 128 sees about 0.7" of qpf before the flip to pingers....of course, if the flip happens 2 hours sooner, then we're talking 0.4" or so since the rates are quite heavy between 00z and 06z. That's the hard part of the forecast. 

Same QPF north of that line?

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is def colder than 00z. Not sure about the 06z since I can't see it. 

Has a very strong thump...qpf is a bit less than 00z but still very high and the colder profile is actually what I'm more interested in. 

Models starting to see for what this is. Congrats 84 on north.

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2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

When is the last time we had a November widespread advisory/warning event in the interior...Thanksgiving 2014? I haven't looked at modeling until just now but I like a solid 3-6'' before mess up this way. 

Yeah 2014...then 2012 before that. Then before that, we'd prob have to go all the way back to 2004 (Tday 2005 was more like a 2-4" event and mostly away from coast). 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah 2014...then 2012 before that. Then before that, we'd prob have to go all the way back to 2004 (Tday 2005 was more like a 2-4" event and mostly away from coast). 

1986, 2002...notice a theme?

I meant to do a blog on why the region would see significant Nov snows before I did the outlook, but never got time.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Models starting to see for what this is. Congrats 84 on north.

How about 3 miles south of 84? No snow for you!? ......How low do we go over night is how I like to play this type of system,  this time of year. Forecast low of 19 here tonight, if we wake up and it is cloudy and 28. Quick burst of snow to pingers to rain. Closer to 20, then a good 6 hours of frozen should be on it's way, especially with dewpoints near 5. 

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Any thoughts on how close to the coast will verify advisory (say 2"+) amounts? If the colder solutions pan out I would think a couple miles W of KBOS would be good for like 2"-4"? Seems like sn to ip flip timing is more of a factor on accumulations than rain vs. snow? Any input from those who ride the line in these situations is appreciated!

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

How about 3 miles south of 84? No snow for you!? ......How low do we go over night is how I like to play this type of system,  this time of year. Forecast low of 19 here tonight, if we wake up and it is cloudy and 28. Quick burst of snow to pingers to rain. Closer to 20, then a good 6 hours of frozen should be on it's way, especially with dewpoints near 5. 

Everyone sees their first snows. 

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13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah that 4-6" instead of 6-8" will probably get me to jump off the ledge.

I love how he assuages a disproportionate amount of tragic grief with obs

"FML, its not going to snow, whoa is me, need to move east, where is my pistol, so that I can swallow it!!"

26*

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Just now, ma blizzard said:

Any thoughts on how close to the coast will verify advisory (say 2"+) amounts? If the colder solutions pan out I would think a couple miles W of KBOS would be good for like 2"-4"? Seems like sn to ip flip timing is more of a factor on accumulations than rain vs. snow? Any input from those who ride the line in these situations is appreciated!

The non-GFS models are pretty bullish for Boston to see 3"+. At least away from the immediate water. This could def be a storm where Logan out in Boston harbor gets like 1.7" of slop and back bay and Fenway are in the 3-4" range. 

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