Nov 15/16 regionwide event

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The three weenies (Kev, Ginx, and T-Blizz) may have some sneaky potential. We obviously stated the caveats, but some guidance really thumps there. Ignore the snow weenie algorithms,  but it shows it.

Congrats on 4-8” there on the beach 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats on 4-8” there on the beach 

T--blizz will b*tch his way to a record winter again.

[moneypitmike]

Meanwhile in the here and now, the 26* and howling winds at 11:30 are setting the stage nicely for 36 hours from now.

[Ginx snewx]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The three weenies (Kev, Ginx, and T-Blizz) may have some sneaky potential. We obviously stated the caveats, but some guidance really thumps there. Ignore the snow weenie algorithms,  but it shows it.

Einy, weenie, miney, mo?

[Sugarloaf1989]

42 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Meanwhile in the here and now, the 26* and howling winds at 11:30 are setting the stage nicely for 36 hours from now.

32.5F here with high winds.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

45 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

T--blizz will b*tch his way to a record winter again.

Reverse weenieology works. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The three weenies (Kev, Ginx, and T-Blizz) may have some sneaky potential. We obviously stated the caveats, but some guidance really thumps there. Ignore the snow weenie algorithms,  but it shows it.

Ive been liking this Ferrier correction snow maps.

Here's the 12z high-res NAM... the normal snow map is like 6-12" everywhere.

[Greg]

Just need the low to track ever so slightly east with the WAA and we then end up geting a colder solution than we have right now.  Hopfully this is the beging of coming attractions what will end up being a snowy winter here in the Central and Southern New England region.

[ORH_wxman]

The ferrier one looks too low. Though it's definitely closer to reality than the 12" snow maps. 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ive been liking this Ferrier correction snow maps.

Here's the 12z high-res NAM... the normal snow map is like 6-12" everywhere.

Think it's to low.. instantweather always seems good

[powderfreak]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Think it's to low.. instantweather always seems good

It's just another type of snow map.  Not a Weenie style algorithm for sure lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The ferrier one looks too low. Though it's definitely closer to reality than the 12" snow maps. 

Agree....I'll pass on the Grinch map

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's just another type of snow map.  Not a Weenie style algorithm for sure lol.

It looks like raindancewx developed the algorithm..it will never show more than 2" when Albuquerque, NM is below average in temps for November.

[Ginx snewx]

Hi def RGEM is crazy with the WAA band blowing up from NCT north. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looks like raindancewx developed the algorithm..it will never show more than 2" when Albuquerque, NM is below average temps in November.

Its never close ever 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hi def RGEM is crazy with the WAA band blowing up from NCT north. 

Winterwereweenie asked for a snowmap

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its never close ever 

Yea, in all seriousness, I would toss it, save for the cape and islands.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Winterwereweenie asked for a snowmap

 

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ive been liking this Ferrier correction snow maps.

Here's the 12z high-res NAM... the normal snow map is like 6-12" everywhere.

Not to beat a dead horse But as others said, That's too low.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Geez hires RGEM...gives me like 10" of powder.

[ORH_wxman]

The RGEM is definitely breathtaking, but one should demand a bit more evidence before running with it. One good thing is that the euro has generally been on its side...maybe not quite as robust but definitely in that general ballpark. We'll see what the 12z run does shortly. 

[wxsniss]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is probably going to be a season that manufactures plowable out of a quail queef.

Yeah it has that feeling. Been about 3.5 years since we had that kind of mojo in SNE. Only downside is it will do a number on work and sleep.

Won't be available to do Euro PBP but there is fairly decent guidance consensus now that GFS has trended favorably. If Euro holds or continues to tick colder, we may see watches in interior later today. Even with the caveat that we have little buffer at 800-700mb in that critical 3z-6z window.

[Typhoon Tip]

i know I've mentioned Dec 2005 as at least a partial analog (...mainly because of the 500 mb wave translation..) but, this layout of ptype cartoons are starting to remind me of that Thanks Giggety storm of two years ago ... cut power for a few places in the interior.  

or was that 4 years ago ? ...damn

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah it has that feeling. Been about 3.5 years since we had that kind of mojo in SNE. Only downside is it will do a number on work and sleep.

Won't be available to do Euro PBP but there is fairly decent guidance consensus now that GFS has trended favorably. If Euro holds or continues to tick colder, we may see watches in interior later today. Even with the caveat that we have little buffer at 800-700mb in that critical 3z-6z window.

wow ... you really nailed it down!   heh

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah it has that feeling. Been about 3.5 years since we had that kind of mojo in SNE. Only downside is it will do a number on work and sleep.

Won't be available to do Euro PBP but there is fairly decent guidance consensus now that GFS has trended favorably. If Euro holds or continues to tick colder, we may see watches in interior later today. Even with the caveat that we have little buffer at 800-700mb in that critical 3z-6z window.

I feel pretty good about the mid levels where I am.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The three weenies (Kev, Ginx, and T-Blizz) may have some sneaky potential. We obviously stated the caveats, but some guidance really thumps there. Ignore the snow weenie algorithms,  but it shows it.

As I said yesterday. I like the potential here. Could be a sneaky nice event if things break right. No Debby here 

[weathafella]

Is it too early to say weeeee!!!!!’

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel pretty good about the mid levels where I am.

I bet you get 4-8.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I bet you get 4-8.

Yeah he may hold off the pingers until after 06z. That is the key. He should def get advisory if that happens and a reasonable shot at 6"+. I think the evidence for a stronger thump is becoming clearer...the biggest question still remaining is the temp profiles. The precip/qpf should be there...we just need midlevels to cooperate long enough. There's a huge difference in flipping to sleet by, say, 02z or 03z in the pike region versus 05z-06z. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he may hold off the pingers until after 06z. That is the key. He should def get advisory if that happens and a reasonable shot at 6"+. I think the evidence for a stronger thump is becoming clearer...the biggest question still remaining is the temp profiles. The precip/qpf should be there...we just need midlevels to cooperate long enough. There's a huge difference in flipping to sleet by, say, 02z or 03z in the pike region versus 05z-06z. 

If we start the season with a SWFE la nina type undertone, then go typical weak nino, I may clean up.