Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Nov 15/16 regionwide event


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Good to be back fellas...

0z Euro with a heavier WAA thump... everything moves in a bit earlier, 850s slightly warmer in pike region, but almost 0.5" more qpf 0z-6z Friday... supports 3k NAM / RGEM at least in intensity of the thump...

I can't see Euro cross-sections but judging from 850s looks like still uncertain soundings approaching 6z near pike... still, with greater intensity of that initial thump as depicted, the NWS 2-3" is looking like a very reasonable starting point and, if things hold, will have to be increased outside 128

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Good to be back fellas...

0z Euro with a heavier WAA thump... everything moves in a bit earlier, 850s slightly warmer in pike region, but almost 0.5" more qpf 0z-6z Friday... supports 3k NAM / RGEM at least in intensity of the thump...

I can't see Euro cross-sections but judging from 850s looks like still uncertain soundings approaching 6z near pike... still, with greater intensity of that initial thump as depicted, the NWS 2-3" is looking like a very reasonable starting point and, if things hold, will have to be increased outside 128

Yeah everything is a few hours faster which helps. It brings in precip to SW CT around 11AM. Definitely looks like a shot at warning criteria even south of the Pike if it were to play out that way. Really dumps for about 5-6 hours before it gets too warm aloft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Yeah everything is a few hours faster which helps. It brings in precip to SW CT around 11AM. Definitely looks like a shot at warning criteria even south of the Pike if it were to play out that way. Really dumps for about 5-6 hours before it gets too warm aloft.

Does the thump stay strong N of pike 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and it's almost certainly wrong too, lol. That would be 2-3" per hour stuff leading up the flip to sleet. Even if we know it isn't right verbatim, it does give us a reason to kep an eye out for an intense burst on the front end. Models have been disagreeing about it with the GFS constantly being the weakest. I doubt it ends up like the GFS either.

Okay--we've got our first "verbatim" of the season.  How long will it take before we need to "thread the needle"?  :)

23*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...