Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 3:53 PM, CoastalWx said: The three weenies (Kev, Ginx, and T-Blizz) may have some sneaky potential. We obviously stated the caveats, but some guidance really thumps there. Ignore the snow weenie algorithms, but it shows it. Expand Congrats on 4-8” there on the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 4:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Congrats on 4-8” there on the beach Expand T--blizz will b*tch his way to a record winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Meanwhile in the here and now, the 26* and howling winds at 11:30 are setting the stage nicely for 36 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 3:53 PM, CoastalWx said: The three weenies (Kev, Ginx, and T-Blizz) may have some sneaky potential. We obviously stated the caveats, but some guidance really thumps there. Ignore the snow weenie algorithms, but it shows it. Expand Einy, weenie, miney, mo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 4:30 PM, moneypitmike said: Meanwhile in the here and now, the 26* and howling winds at 11:30 are setting the stage nicely for 36 hours from now. Expand 32.5F here with high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 4:29 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: T--blizz will b*tch his way to a record winter again. Expand Reverse weenieology works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 3:53 PM, CoastalWx said: The three weenies (Kev, Ginx, and T-Blizz) may have some sneaky potential. We obviously stated the caveats, but some guidance really thumps there. Ignore the snow weenie algorithms, but it shows it. Expand Ive been liking this Ferrier correction snow maps. Here's the 12z high-res NAM... the normal snow map is like 6-12" everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just need the low to track ever so slightly east with the WAA and we then end up geting a colder solution than we have right now. Hopfully this is the beging of coming attractions what will end up being a snowy winter here in the Central and Southern New England region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The ferrier one looks too low. Though it's definitely closer to reality than the 12" snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:18 PM, powderfreak said: Ive been liking this Ferrier correction snow maps. Here's the 12z high-res NAM... the normal snow map is like 6-12" everywhere. Expand Think it's to low.. instantweather always seems good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:22 PM, ineedsnow said: Think it's to low.. instantweather always seems good Expand It's just another type of snow map. Not a Weenie style algorithm for sure lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: The ferrier one looks too low. Though it's definitely closer to reality than the 12" snow maps. Expand Agree....I'll pass on the Grinch map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:23 PM, powderfreak said: It's just another type of snow map. Not a Weenie style algorithm for sure lol. Expand It looks like raindancewx developed the algorithm..it will never show more than 2" when Albuquerque, NM is below average in temps for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Hi def RGEM is crazy with the WAA band blowing up from NCT north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:24 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It looks like raindancewx developed the algorithm..it will never show more than 2" when Albuquerque, NM is below average temps in November. Expand Its never close ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:31 PM, Ginx snewx said: Hi def RGEM is crazy with the WAA band blowing up from NCT north. Expand Winterwereweenie asked for a snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:32 PM, Ginx snewx said: Its never close ever Expand Yea, in all seriousness, I would toss it, save for the cape and islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Winterwereweenie asked for a snowmap Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:18 PM, powderfreak said: Ive been liking this Ferrier correction snow maps. Here's the 12z high-res NAM... the normal snow map is like 6-12" everywhere. Expand Not to beat a dead horse But as others said, That's too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Geez hires RGEM...gives me like 10" of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The RGEM is definitely breathtaking, but one should demand a bit more evidence before running with it. One good thing is that the euro has generally been on its side...maybe not quite as robust but definitely in that general ballpark. We'll see what the 12z run does shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 3:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is probably going to be a season that manufactures plowable out of a quail queef. Expand Yeah it has that feeling. Been about 3.5 years since we had that kind of mojo in SNE. Only downside is it will do a number on work and sleep. Won't be available to do Euro PBP but there is fairly decent guidance consensus now that GFS has trended favorably. If Euro holds or continues to tick colder, we may see watches in interior later today. Even with the caveat that we have little buffer at 800-700mb in that critical 3z-6z window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 i know I've mentioned Dec 2005 as at least a partial analog (...mainly because of the 500 mb wave translation..) but, this layout of ptype cartoons are starting to remind me of that Thanks Giggety storm of two years ago ... cut power for a few places in the interior. or was that 4 years ago ? ...damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:37 PM, wxsniss said: Yeah it has that feeling. Been about 3.5 years since we had that kind of mojo in SNE. Only downside is it will do a number on work and sleep. Won't be available to do Euro PBP but there is fairly decent guidance consensus now that GFS has trended favorably. If Euro holds or continues to tick colder, we may see watches in interior later today. Even with the caveat that we have little buffer at 800-700mb in that critical 3z-6z window. Expand wow ... you really nailed it down! heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:37 PM, wxsniss said: Yeah it has that feeling. Been about 3.5 years since we had that kind of mojo in SNE. Only downside is it will do a number on work and sleep. Won't be available to do Euro PBP but there is fairly decent guidance consensus now that GFS has trended favorably. If Euro holds or continues to tick colder, we may see watches in interior later today. Even with the caveat that we have little buffer at 800-700mb in that critical 3z-6z window. Expand I feel pretty good about the mid levels where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 3:53 PM, CoastalWx said: The three weenies (Kev, Ginx, and T-Blizz) may have some sneaky potential. We obviously stated the caveats, but some guidance really thumps there. Ignore the snow weenie algorithms, but it shows it. Expand As I said yesterday. I like the potential here. Could be a sneaky nice event if things break right. No Debby here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Is it too early to say weeeee!!!!!’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:41 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel pretty good about the mid levels where I am. Expand I bet you get 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:43 PM, weathafella said: I bet you get 4-8. Expand Yeah he may hold off the pingers until after 06z. That is the key. He should def get advisory if that happens and a reasonable shot at 6"+. I think the evidence for a stronger thump is becoming clearer...the biggest question still remaining is the temp profiles. The precip/qpf should be there...we just need midlevels to cooperate long enough. There's a huge difference in flipping to sleet by, say, 02z or 03z in the pike region versus 05z-06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 5:47 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah he may hold off the pingers until after 06z. That is the key. He should def get advisory if that happens and a reasonable shot at 6"+. I think the evidence for a stronger thump is becoming clearer...the biggest question still remaining is the temp profiles. The precip/qpf should be there...we just need midlevels to cooperate long enough. There's a huge difference in flipping to sleet by, say, 02z or 03z in the pike region versus 05z-06z. Expand If we start the season with a SWFE la nina type undertone, then go typical weak nino, I may clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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