ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 6:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That looks like some sort of ice signal here. Expand Don't think icing will be that prolonged. Def could occur for a few hours, but I'm thinking mostly transition ice. Maybe far interior elevated valleys in N MA and SW NH see a bit more? Though once that far north, could be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 As you get up this way, i think if its somewhat marginal, It would be IP/SN type conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I also think some longitude will help. As the high retreats I do think some marine air will penetrate inland. You can envision that 32 line shrink north and west until into ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 6:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was going to leave wxbell for that, but figured I'd stay because I'm used to it, and I will end up divorced if I have access to 4 Euro runs daily. Expand Just don’t call her “Euro” you know when Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:19 PM, dryslot said: As you get up this way, i think if its somewhat marginal, It would be IP/SN type conditions. Expand Recent GFS runs show qpf, not p-type, as becoming marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:25 PM, tamarack said: Recent GFS runs show qpf, not p-type, as becoming marginal. Expand Some of the modal guidance had it tainting the south west corner of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 6:59 PM, dendrite said: That looks like an H5 band up there. Expand H7 and H5 look good, but he may be right about being a bit too far north. Seems we usually see these bands further NW of modeling though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Damn Euro has up to -40 ubar at 700 in that initial thump on the south coast of CT. Definitely all snow at 9 pm Thursday night. That puppy lays down serious dumpage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Must be nice to worry about whether or not you get into a deformation band in mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:30 PM, CoastalWx said: Must be nice to worry about whether or not you get into a deformation band in mid November. Expand Ah the endless circle of weenie life continues. Diane has incoming rain, we constantly stare at coastal fronts, and powda freaks his way to a foot plus. Winter is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:17 PM, ORH_wxman said: Don't think icing will be that prolonged. Def could occur for a few hours, but I'm thinking mostly transition ice. Maybe far interior elevated valleys in N MA and SW NH see a bit more? Though once that far north, could be sleet. Expand I know...I don't expect an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:30 PM, CoastalWx said: Must be nice to worry about whether or not you get into a deformation band in mid November. Expand I only get my fall deformation bands in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Slightly worried about this one in that the initial LP gets captured and tucked to Atlantic City. And in doing so the best WAA doesn't make it into SNE. For example, check the 6-hr QPF at hours 66 v 72. Long Island and the south coast get upwards of 0.75" of liquid between 60-66, while SNE is significantly less (half) between 66-72. By worried I mean: we see hours of light snows and drizzle that barely accumulate instead of hours of accumulating snows. However, I'm very curious to see what happens as the system goes out underneath us (or over the Cape) Friday afternoon. I mean look at this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 If this comes in mostly at night, I could see some nice icing out this way. Will be hard to accumulate much snow with the warm ground too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:42 PM, Whineminster said: If this comes in mostly at night, I could see some nice icing out this way. Will be hard to accumulate much snow with the warm ground too. Expand Hopefully this entire post is sarcasm. Otherwise there will be some anger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:43 PM, dendrite said: Hopefully this entire post is sarcasm. Otherwise there will be some anger. Expand He’s serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:39 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Slightly worried about this one in that the initial LP gets captured and tucked to Atlantic City. And in doing so the best WAA doesn't make it into SNE. For example, check the 6-hr QPF at hours 66 v 72. Long Island and the south coast get upwards of 0.75" of liquid between 60-66, while SNE is significantly less (half) between 66-72. By worried I mean: we see hours of light snows and drizzle that barely accumulate instead of hours of accumulating snows. However, I'm very curious to see what happens as the system goes out underneath us (or over the Cape) Friday afternoon. I mean look at this thing. Expand Ya it seems to me that we see a few of our blown forecasts on ignoring indications of a mediciore thump in the initial WAA, especially when most sne accums would depend on that. Could go either way still but the point is it’s a flag that seems to be brushed off like it takes the fun of an event away to mention it . I would agree there is potential around and just outside 495 for part 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I don't think WAA precip will be hard to come by with a congealing H5 low abutting a retreating polar high. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I don't see an issue with the WAA thump in SNE unless you are expecting 6+. If you are, on a marginal setup in mid-November still over 48 hours out, then you prob need to be weenietagged Even just a steady 3/4 vis light snow for several hours will put down 2" in this airmass off the coast. If we get inside of 36 hours and the guidance trends toward a huge omega bomb for SNE, then we can start expecting low end warning amounts in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:00 PM, ORH_wxman said: Even just a steady 3/4 vis light snow for several hours will put down 2" in this airmass off the coast. Expand Really , well then thank you. That’s crucial info imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:03 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Really , well then thank you. That’s crucial info imo Expand Yeah I think it's going to be below freezing outside of 128 for a while early on...prob even upper 20s. It's darn cold. I mean, were talking -6 to -7 at 900mb and -5 at 950. That's cold stuff. This isn't an isothermal slop event...but we do have to worry about some pinging getting in earlier because of 800mb...but our lower levels are golden for the first 6-8 hours. E coast of MA will have BL issues but we've been saying that for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 7:30 PM, CoastalWx said: Must be nice to worry about whether or not you get into a deformation band in mid November. Expand The funny thing is is far inferior will likely say the same to coastal zones in January, lol...wondering if we get into cirrus or just have a sunny day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:08 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think it's going to be below freezing outside of 128 for a while early on...prob even upper 20s. It's darn cold. I mean, were talking -6 to -7 at 900mb and -5 at 950. That's cold stuff. This isn't an isothermal slop event...but we do have to worry about some pinging getting in earlier because of 800mb...but our lower levels are golden for the first 6-8 hours. E coast of MA will have BL issues but we've been saying that for a while. Expand Yeah it's an ice box just inland. Even on the coast, if you can get a few miles inland, the flow is light enough where it could be 32-33 snow for a time. The flow is E-ESE so places like TAN could get it on it. It's not a stout, killer onshore flow until dawn. That's usually my experience. If the flow is light enough, you'll start out as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:11 PM, powderfreak said: The funny thing is is far inferior will likely say the same to coastal zones in January, lol...wondering if we get into cirrus or just have a sunny day. Expand I had to say it lol. Enjoy it..pretty sick start to season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:12 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah it's an ice box just inland. Even on the coast, if you can get a few miles inland, the flow is light enough where it could be 32-33 snow for a time. The flow is E-ESE so places like TAN could get it on it. It's not a stout, killer onshore flow until dawn. That's usually my experience. If the flow is light enough, you'll start out as snow. Expand Yeah before onshore flow really gets going, I def think BOS and other places on the coast will be 32-33F and steady snow. Somewhere like Jerry could be 30-31 for a few hours at the onset while Logan is jumping to 34 and slop after a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:16 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah before onshore flow really gets going, I def think BOS and other places on the coast will be 32-33F and steady snow. Somewhere like Jerry could be 30-31 for a few hours at the onset while Logan is jumping to 34 and slop after a couple hours. Expand Are we the usual 27-28 degree dry powder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Thinking 2-4" for most of CT now with a T-2 coastal SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 oh boy just moved out to Boston and already thinking of going back west for this event def sweating this out a little 48 hrs out .. not used to worrying about things like this, already missing climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:13 PM, CoastalWx said: I had to say it lol. Enjoy it..pretty sick start to season. Expand But seriously, that conversation has been had today. Walking around the base area with a dense 8-10" on the ground and big snowbanks from the wet snow... a few coworkers were like man, you know how many times we'd die for this in January when we are getting Arctic flurries while NYC and Boston get a blizzard... when all we want is a good shot of QPF snow to resurface the slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 8:21 PM, ma blizzard said: oh boy just moved out to Boston and already thinking of going back west for this event def sweating this out a little 48 hrs out .. not used to worrying about things like this, already missing climo Expand You won't be missing climo during the big noreasters. trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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