November 15-16 Storm Potential

[IWXwx]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z NAM came in with almost a foot of snow around St. Louis.

I'll take the under, although it's pretty cool to see warning level snows modeled for down there this early in the season.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I'll take the under, although it's pretty cool to see warning level snows modeled for down there this early in the season.

I do think there could be like 8-10" somewhere, just not sure where.

Impressive little system.  For St. Louis (and everybody really), the ground is colder than it normally would be in mid November and good rates should allow for rather efficient accumulation imo, particularly before any daytime warming.

[bdgwx]

13.1" at St. Louis?

0Z NAM - Cobb method

StnID: kstl    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
181115/0100Z  25  03006KT  32.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
181115/0200Z  26  03009KT  31.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
181115/0300Z  27  03009KT  31.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
181115/0400Z  28  04007KT  31.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
181115/0500Z  29  04007KT  31.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
181115/0600Z  30  02007KT  28.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126   12:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
181115/0700Z  31  01008KT  28.8F  SNOW   11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153   12:1|  3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0
181115/0800Z  32  01008KT  28.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117   12:1|  4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40  100|  0|  0
181115/0900Z  33  01009KT  28.8F  SNOW   11:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54  100|  0|  0
181115/1000Z  34  01009KT  28.7F  SNOW   13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120   12:1|  7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66  100|  0|  0
181115/1100Z  35  01008KT  28.7F  SNOW   14:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104   12:1|  9.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0
181115/1200Z  36  01007KT  28.8F  SNOW   15:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081   12:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.84  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
181115/1300Z  37  36006KT  29.0F  SNOW   13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041   12:1| 10.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88  100|  0|  0
181115/1400Z  38  35006KT  29.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026   12:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91  100|  0|  0
181115/1500Z  39  34006KT  29.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024   12:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93  100|  0|  0
181115/1600Z  40  33007KT  30.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   12:1| 11.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.95  100|  0|  0
181115/1700Z  41  32007KT  30.8F  SNOW   11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030   12:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98  100|  0|  0
181115/1800Z  42  31007KT  31.0F  SNOW   12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031   12:1| 12.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.02  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
181115/1900Z  43  30007KT  31.4F  SNOW   15:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037   12:1| 12.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.05  100|  0|  0
181115/2000Z  44  30007KT  31.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036   12:1| 13.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09  100|  0|  0
181115/2100Z  45  29007KT  32.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015   12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10  100|  0|  0
181115/2200Z  46  27005KT  32.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10    0|  0|  0
181115/2300Z  47  26005KT  32.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10    0|  0|  0
181116/0000Z  48  25005KT  31.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   12:1| 13.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10    0|  0|  0
============================================================================================================================

 

[cyclone77]

Pretty odd looking system to be sure.  Folks in downstate IL should feel pretty fortunate to cash in on such a strange setup.  Could be the biggest snow of the whole winter down there. 

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Pretty odd looking system to be sure.  Folks in downstate IL should feel pretty fortunate to cash in on such a strange setup.  Could be the biggest snow of the whole winter down there. 

If not winter, then perhaps the biggest snow of the Fall.  

[Indystorm]

IND NWS being cautious this evening and saying snow showers and possible mix.  Indy tv mets this evening saying mix of everything and waiting for new model input.

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

IND NWS being cautious this evening and saying snow showers and possible mix.  Indy tv mets this evening saying mix of everything and waiting for new model input.

Definitely a trickier forecast for IN. Dryslot and precip type concerns compared to farther west in IL/STL area.

[Hoosier]

Unless the Euro pulls something unexpected, would think there's a good chance that the watch gets expanded into St. Louis.  GFS not really playing ball but everything else is.

[cyclone77]

49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If not winter, then perhaps the biggest snow of the Fall.  

Haha!  Indeed.

[cyclone77]

The RGEM gets the snow pretty far north.  Gives Hoosier a few inches, and even Chicago gets a little cover.  Near warning criteria snows all the way up to near Lincoln.  

[Hoosier]

The list to watch for St. Louis.  All 3"+ calendar day snows in November.  It has been 38 years since it happened.  As you can see, most of these are the 20th or later and the only year that did it between the 1st and 15th was 1951.

 

7.6"  11/26/1975

6.9"  11/06/1951

6.5"  11/28/1929

6.2"  11/17/1926

5.7"  11/27/1980

5.5"  11/27/1977

5.2"  11/19/1972

4.0"  11/26/1895

3.4"  11/05/1951

3.4"  11/23/1938

3.3"  11/28/1958

3.3"  11/20/1926

3.0"  11/23/1941

[Central Illinois]

I wouldn’t be surprised if ILX extends the Winter Storm Watch up to I-72


.

[fluoronium]

Looks like I'll be north of the heaviest stuff. Crazy to get missed to the south at this time of year! Interesting setup for sure. I am kind of bitter about missing out on a spring and a fall this year though...

Here's a neat infographic from PAH on November 2" snowfalls in Paducah

[cyclone77]

24 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if ILX extends the Winter Storm Watch up to I-72


.

Congrats!  You're sitting pretty.  

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

The RGEM gets the snow pretty far north.  Gives Hoosier a few inches, and even Chicago gets a little cover.  Near warning criteria snows all the way up to near Lincoln.  

Looks good for a couple inches here at this point.  Wouldn't go higher yet.  Most of this is occurring during the day here and temps look pretty marginal, though there is a zone of cooler temps being progged in the snow area.

[Central Illinois]

Congrats!  You're sitting pretty.  

Hopefully! It’d be the first big snow in November in along time

 

[RobertSul]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The list to watch for St. Louis.  All 3"+ calendar day snows in November.  It has been 38 years since it happened.  As you can see, most of these are the 20th or later and the only year that did it between the 1st and 15th was 1951.

 

7.6"  11/26/1975

5.7"  11/27/1980

5.5"  11/27/1977

5.2"  11/19/1972

It’s interesting that from 1972 - 1980, it was almost an every other year occurrence to have 5”+ in November.

[homedis]

Excited to see what unfolds tomorrow evening here at UIUC!

[Chambana]

WWA hoisted for my area. Just to my south WSW have also been hoisted. Nice event unfolding. 

[King James]

WWA hoisted for my area. Just to my south WSW have also been hoisted. Nice event unfolding. 

I’ve had a target on my back with these systems . If this one clips me tomorrow it’ll be the 3rd time already that snow has covered the grass.


.

[Hoosier]

STL area upgraded to warning.

[Chinook]

I am seeing the NAM/GFS put out some freezing rain for Ohio and Indiana. I am wondering if the roads are cold enough for this to build up an icy surface.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I am seeing the NAM/GFS put out some freezing rain for Ohio and Indiana. I am wondering if the roads are cold enough for this to build up an icy surface.

I'd say lesser traveled roads for sure. Main roads are more questionable.  For anybody driving, I'd just assume they could be slippery.

[Hoosier]

Definitely some signals of a bit of a precip minimum around here, with heavier amounts in a band just north and then farther to the south.  This is one of those things that's tough to figure out ahead of time... 1) if it will actually happen and 2) location... but something I'm watching.  

[ILwxchr]

Not sure what to think of this one. The 3k and 12k NAM both show a maximum around the St Louis metro region. I don't really want to venture there because of heavy traffic. The HRRR has the deformation band extending northeast to include places like Springfield along the I-72 corridor. Thinking about cutting my bets and heading somewhere between Jacksonville and Carlinville for some B-roll video tonight. I think somewhere from St Louis east to Effingham up to Springfield could get the bullseye out of this. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few 8"+ reports.

[Hoosier]

This really goes to town in the def band... even into northern IL.  I believe this is the hi-res version of the RGEM.

[Stebo]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This really goes to town in the def band... even into northern IL.  I believe this is the hi-res version of the RGEM.

That is much further northwest with the main brunt of the precip over this way too.

[Chicago Storm]

Decent shift north of most guidance with this system now.

The UKMET is the farthest NW, with accums even to cycloneville. ECMWF is the farthest SE, with a DAB only to ORD. Most guidance did shift north though, enough to put much of the metro in play for some accums now.

[Hoosier]

Euro doesn't get snow as far northwest as most of the other 12z runs.

[Hoosier]

Tricky call here and I don't feel too comfortable.  I think struggling to get to 1" and getting a few inches are both plausible outcomes.  The precip shield is progged to start weakening as it gets here.  If that process is delayed just a little, then a few inches would be more likely.  Then during the day tomorrow, thermal profiles become more marginal and precip may shift too far north for a time.