Hoosier Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 This is sort of a sudden development on the models in the past few cycles, and would like to see another run or two to have greater confidence in it happening but nonetheless we are 4 days away. Trend has been to leave some energy behind in the southern Plains, which eventually kicks northeastward. Thermal profiles do support snow (and mixed precip) but it will take some time to refine the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Pretty neat how it develops. There's basically nothing going on at the surface on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 The UKMET is also on board for a quick developing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: I would have held off on "this". Tropical Low in Atlantic is playing havoc with models. That is what is going to force this energy to stall. I dont know what you mean by havoc when it is pretty much consensus that the tropical low will form near the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Pretty neat how it develops. There's basically nothing going on at the surface on Wednesday. Wow, that is a fascinating look that I can't say I have ever seen before. The energy is almost completely cut off before the incoming shortwave opens the door for it to bounce to the NE and deepen. Guess I'll put it in the GIFs folder whether it actually happens or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Fish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 0z NAM looks somewhat interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Still there on all 00z runs but there are track differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 12z GFS/GEM are suggesting potential for amounts near 6" in parts of eastern MO/southern IL. 00z Euro targeted the same general area with similar amounts so we'll see what the 12z run has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 I was looking at snowfall records for St. Louis and the only time have had a 3" calendar day snowfall in the first 15 days of November was back in 1951, when it happened on the 5th and 6th. It's happened more in the back half of the month, but not much. Will they pull it off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Louie Louie, oh yes All eyes for the Wednesday night and Thursday time period will be on mid/upper level cutoff low that forms near the Arklatex region. As alluded to yesterday, these cutoff lows are typically very difficult to forecast in terms of both track and timing. Compared to yesterday, there is however more confidence in this system impacting the CWA with the potential for significant snowfall (3+ inches). However, even a slight shift in when the cutoff low ejects out and its eventual track could have very large ramifications on sensible weather output. Currently, based on the track of this upcoming system, it appears that portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois would have the highest chances at seeing the most snowfall. While there are still some concerns about precipitation type, it does appear that the dry/cold antecedent conditions associated with the previous arctic air mass and dynamic cooling should yield mostly snow wherever the deformation zone moves through. Speaking of the track of the system, model consensus of the 850-hPa low tracks is roughly from KMEM late Wednesday night into the lower Ohio Valley late on Thursday. Previous research (Browne and Younkin - 1970) has shown the heaviest snow axis to be approximately 90 nautical miles (~105 miles) to the left of the track of the 850-hPa low. Given the strength of this system and the fact that it continues to deepen into the day on Thursday, this may be a case where the heaviest axis of snow is just a bit further to the northwest (say closer to 120-130 miles). This would favor the heaviest snow axis in the CWA roughly from KFAM to just northwest of KSLO. An early look at NWP soundings show a classic heavy signature with maximum lift centered in a saturated dendritic growth zone (-12 to - 18C). Elevated instability is also noted in this same layer very late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as isentropes fold over or decrease with height. Below the ice crystal growth zone, there is a deep isothermal layer around -5C from the surface to near 700 hPa which suggests dendrites would tend to aggregate. To top it all off, wind speeds are fairly light throughout the column to prevent fracturing of snowflakes. In summation, snow-to-liquid ratios may be fairly high (above 12:1) which would help to increase snowfall totals. (Thursday Night - Next Monday) Behind this next system, northwest flow aloft will establish itself. A cold front is still expected to move through the region on Friday night into early Saturday. Temperatures should reach into the upper 40s on Friday ahead of the cold front. While this likely will be the warmest day of the extended, those highs would still be some 5-10 degrees below normal. Slightly cooler weather is then favored behind the aforementioned cold front for this upcoming weekend as another strong surface high settles into the region. Forecast high temperatures this weekend should be mainly in the 30s before a slight moderation occurs next Monday as high pressure settles into the lower Mississippi Valley with southerly return flow returning to the bi-state area. Gosselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 18z GFS appears colder farther east. Shows 2-3" my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 0Z NAM has shifted west, has the heaviest snow over the MI/IN/OH border regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Model signals have been to have this max somewhere southwest. Not as much precip farther northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 This ice map is something out of the depths of winter. Talk about large coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 27 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This ice map is something out of the depths of winter. Talk about large coverage Cold air damming is going to really make this a nightmare out east, probably one of the earliest ice storms on record too. I would have to imagine that there are tons of fully leaved trees still too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Pick a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Pick a model Neither, a storm that runs out of gas before it clobbers SEMI, toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, Stebo said: Neither, a storm that runs out of gas before it clobbers SEMI, toss. Sometimes a sacrifice is necessary. Failure helps to fine tune the magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18Z NAM ramping up totals, 3-5, across central southern IN and OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 I don't know why TT can't adjust their algorithm to get rid of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Winter storm watches up for just outside the St.Louis metro. Also outside of the subforum but winter weather advisories for as far south as Mississippi. Pretty impressive for a mid November storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I don't know why TT can't adjust their algorithm to get rid of sleet. Yeah I just realized I was looking at TT model lol. Pivotal NAM actually dropped amounts to crap. Might be messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Yeah I just realized I was looking at TT model lol. Pivotal NAM actually dropped amounts to crap. Might be messy. Man the Shenandoah Valley is going to get absolutely crushed with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 The northern edge with this looks a lot like yesterday's system, at least in the LOT cwa. At 2 days out I wasn't entirely sure if I was going to get precip from yesterday's system, and I feel the same way now. My guess is that a little something falls here but it wouldn't have to shift a ton south to be a shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18z GFS a bit further northwest....might have to head down toward Springfield or Effingham for some B-roll footage. Been an interesting early season that is for sure...will be interesting to see how this unfolds tomorrow as far as models go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Really liking the trends today. Should be a fun little event unfolding tomorrow night. Going to aim high and make a fall CMI gets 4”. Best part is I’m off work Thursday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I'll believe it when I see it. Have not seen snow here yet this season although some reported north of Indy. Not looking for ice at all this season as I had $3000 worth of damage to my car from sliding on ice into a previous 3 car wreck on Jan. 24th of this year. Models do look interesting though. DPW was very slow to respond to the ice in that Jan. episode and blamed a bad forecast as the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 00z NAM came in with almost a foot of snow around St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 41 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I'll believe it when I see it. Have not seen snow here yet this season although some reported north of Indy. Not looking for ice at all this season as I had $3000 worth of damage to my car from sliding on ice into a previous 3 car wreck on Jan. 24th of this year. Models do look interesting though. DPW was very slow to respond to the ice in that Jan. episode and blamed a bad forecast as the reason. If I remember right, it was forecast very well, at least on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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