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November 15 Snow/Ice Chance


showmethesnow

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2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

I'm assuming that anything South of Fredricksburg is going to be a cold rain, right?

Not necessarily, here's the latest 3km NAM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2018111312&fh=60

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I think it all depends on rates at the beginning of the event... If it comes in hot it will stay mostly snow until things lighten up. Once light mixed precip takes over it will be tuff to go back to snow unless we get real ull action.
Going to be tough to forecast amounts and amounts will probably vary greatly.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

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51 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

To be honest, I usually only look at where I live.  I think most of us do that.

My expectation is that this resembles Dec 26, 2013 for most of the area.  That storm was a different setup as it was a TN valley storm that jumped to the coast, and a more pronounced CAD, but I think this storm may be very similar in the weather that we see.

That’s fair, and I know you’re in a much better spot for this than I am, but when talking about most people we need to be realistic.

Of course, I have absolutely no issue with you caring only about your backyard. I’m with you...I don’t care much if Bumf***, VA gets a foot of snow if I only get an inch that turns to a cold drizzle. It’s what this hobby is all about. :lol:

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

It doesn’t even have to stick to the roads, but the green grass turning white will be a sight for sore eyes. Fingers remain crossed though.

Just seeing some flakes falling and covering the grass would be awesome. Great way to kick off the season very early. Usually, I'm just praying for seeing A FLAKE this time of the year. I usually look at November 15-20 or so as the time of year I start looking for flurries or a snow shower.

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