showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That 500mb pass is really nice on the Euro. Get that northern stream out of the way just a pinch more and if that slides another 20-50 miles farther south, would be possible to see a changeover back to frozen east of the mountains on Friday morning. Could get some brief heavy precipitation that can drag down some colder air and get a few minutes of fatties. A little farther south with the closed would be nice but I would also like to see it swinging through even a little quicker while the surface low is still below our latitude. Best thing about the shift we are seeing with that feature is that we may not be as reliant on CAD as we will have a fresh supply of cold over top as you alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 This is helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 EPS looks super good re: low developing of the coast. Maps coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 i'm not ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: i'm not ready You got to be all in all the time this winter. LET'S GO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 We are seeing a huge improvement with the 500 mb on the EPS and possible interaction with the surface low. Would not be surprised if we see some very snowy members within the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: You got to be all in all the time this winter. LET'S GO that gif is the best. i'll work on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Big jump on the snowfall EPS means map. Would post but I believe NorthArlington101 is going to do that. Now have the 2" line south of Balt/DC with 3-4 inches in NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Big jump on the snowfall EPS means map. Would post but I believe NorthArlington101 is going to do that. Now have the 2" line south of Balt/DC with 3-4 inches in NW burbs. Hit refresh to see Arlington's op. Impressive look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Big jump on the snowfall EPS means map. Would post but I believe NorthArlington101 is going to do that. Now have the 2" line south of Balt/DC with 3-4 inches in NW burbs. yeah I updated my original post. Trying not to spam things too hard. off of a rough count: At 12z 26 members + control get the 2" mark SE of DC -- most of those well past DC, vs 0z where 6 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 42 minutes ago, Ji said: we got 11 inches in 1987....its happened before lol. I like how we are trending towards better instead of worse. This is usually where we start failing I was in HS in Challes County, for the Veteran's Day storm. It surprised all the mets- I think we ended up with about 13". They sent us to school and then closed pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 That's an impressive EPS map for a storm only 3 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Scraff said: Be great to just get on the board early. Can we get a shift south though for Eastern HoCo. I don’t want to be that “FRINGED” guy. Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1987 is the top analog from CPC! (Though that would be the week after the Veteran's Day storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 The CPC map is centered on Thanksgiving though...wouldn’t we want to show the analog for D+3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: The CPC map is centered on Thanksgiving though...wouldn’t we want to show the analog for D+3? Is there similar guidance for that time period? eta: I guess that role goes to wpc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, nj2va said: The CPC map is centered on Thanksgiving though...wouldn’t we want to show the analog for D+3? Yes, CPC analogs should be used within a 3 day centered mean. Vet day storm showed up @ d11 last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Yes, end of the run... but 18z 3km NAM at 60 hours (06z THUR) has a 3 contour level closed h5 low in Arkansas. 18z 12km NAM at 60 hours also does as well - also located in Arkansas. However, the 18z 12zkm NAM is once again is quite late with its arrival of precip so that any frozen stays out on the I-81 corridor and is quickly changed to rain unless you are out in E WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 18z GFS is a little quicker with the ULL into TN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Happy hour is a bit faster with the ULL and colder in the low-levels. Better chance for frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Happy hour is a bit faster with the ULL and colder in the low-levels. Better chance for frozen. Areas roughly west of US15 do not get above 32 for the duration of the event on the 18z. Soundings are rather sleetly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 The 12z upgrade gfs was alot colder right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: The 12z upgrade gfs was alot colder right? Don't know about the 12Z but the 18z is probably colder. Granted this is 10:1 but still... Dam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Don't know about the 12Z but the 18z is probably colder. Granted this is 10:1 but still... Dam. Algorithm for FV3 snow map is super sketch. Use with extreme caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Don't know about the 12Z but the 18z is probably colder. Granted this is 10:1 but still... Dam. Awesome. Another useless gfs model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 I think it’s just the TT algorithm for the FV3. Don’t know why it’s so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Latest GEFS is upping the ante. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 At least we only have to wait 25 minutes for the 18z Euro to initialize. #gimmethegoodstuff to help calm the model shakes for another few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea.. some members are off the hook .. geez Especially our friends in the southwest contingent I guess there is a reason they call the 18Z the Happy Hour Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think it’s just the TT algorithm for the FV3. Don’t know why it’s so bad. FV3 is very slightly colder than the op GFS at the surface but several degrees warmer at 850. I’d much prefer the op solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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