Ji Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 52 minutes ago, high risk said: The precip type is computed off of the thermodynamic profiles; the water equivalent of snow (+sleet) is from the model microphysics. That's how that can differ. And this is clearly a case when the 10:1 ratios won't come close to working. well at least we have more than enough weenie map images for the digital snow thread and its only Nov 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't like the euro being by itself with the coldest solution. Would go a long ways if the 18-0z suites tick colder in the mids. If they don't then it has the feel that the euro is too cold imo isnt NAM jsut as cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Euro snow depth maps have lowered amounts on the southern edge. Showing 2" for DC, 2-3 for Balt. Better than 6z at least, but still it's on its own in terms of globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Per weather.us, euro is still clearly the best for all of us. Starts as snow for everyone and several hours for from MBY and points north. I’d happily take it. Hope it’s right. It starts off slightly warmer because the precip comes in slightly slower and lighter but once it gets cranking the temps are identical to 0z which was a good run. Pure totals took a slight down tick because liquid was slightly less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: agree. If it's right I would expect the mesos to pick up on it this evening. Think we might get an idea once the Ukmet comes out. Can't remember when it comes out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: It starts off slightly warmer because the precip comes in slightly slower and lighter but once it gets cranking the temps are identical to 0z which was a good run. Pure totals took a slight down tick because liquid was slightly less. its funny how the euro is being dismissed. Its being treated like the JMA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't like the euro being by itself with the coldest solution. Would go a long ways if the 18-0z suites tick colder in the mids. If they don't then it has the feel that the euro is too cold imo 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: agree. If it's right I would expect the mesos to pick up on it this evening. True, but I’d rather be on the hill with the euro than the GFS or Canadian. I think last year the euro seemed to be a bit cold a couple times. I agree it would be nice to see 3k NAM get colder at 18 and 0. I think CWGs map looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Better than 6z at least, but still it's on its own in terms of globals Yeah, I was referring to the 00Z. Will take me awhile to get used to the idea of off runs of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 https://imgur.com/XtqAnny 1hr euro. Can post a slower version if people want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Yeah, I was referring to the 00Z. Will take me awhile to get used to the idea of off runs of the Euro. not sure if i like off runs for the euro. If we have a great 12z run....we used to be able to lavish in the glory for 12 hours before it was taken away by Zwyts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Think we might get an idea once the Ukmet comes out. Can't remember when it comes out though. It's out but I can't see it. I can only see precip and pressure. No idea on temps. Someone out there has that ukmet snowfall map though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: It's out but I can't see it. I can only see precip and pressure. No idea on temps. Someone out there has that ukmet snowfall map though. Lol Yeah, I don't bother with it because the maps are limited and too hard to read. So I let someone else do the dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: https://imgur.com/XtqAnny 1hr euro. Can post a slower version if people want. Euro still bullish on Friday morning ULL snow for north of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: its funny how the euro is being dismissed. Its being treated like the JMA lol 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: True, but I’d rather be on the hill with the euro than the GFS or Canadian. I think last year the euro seemed to be a bit cold a couple times. I agree it would be nice to see 3k NAM get colder at 18 and 0. I think CWGs map looks good to me. True but...I don't want to be on a hill with only any one model. I think the days where one model would likely score a huge coup vs all the others at short range has passed. The euro is still king but it's a constitutional monarchy now and the legislature has most of the real authority. There was a time when it was smart to just ride the euro even against all else. Not anymore. But that said the mesos are close enough that a 1 degree colder trend puts us in line with the euro so tonight is big. If the euro is right you would think some of the high res guidance would see it by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: My man!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro still bullish on Friday morning ULL snow for north of DC It tacks on another 1-3" along the PA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Ukie and Euro continue to cut totals run after run over the past couple of days. Just a slow bleed, but the small cuts are adding up. You can see where this is heading. I'll still gladly take an hour or two of snow and a coating if I can manage it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Still quite the difference between the GFS and Euro and were less than 18 hours to go time. Stark contrast for sensible weather and travel conditions, etc In guessing reality will be somewhere in between the 2 models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Was comparing the Euro and Ukmet snow maps when I realized something. There is very little difference on the Euros 10:1 and snow depth maps. So evidently it's algorithm is doing a good job on accounting for sleet and freezing rain on its 10 to 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I'm all in on the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: I'm all in on the Ukie Sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My man!!! Euro + Ukmet in tandem. Just what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Sign me up If only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Thought the Mid Atlantic Forum Algorithm says to take the snowiest solution and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thought the Mid Atlantic Forum Algorithm says to take the snowiest solution and run with it. Think that is #1 in the snow weenies handbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm all in on the Ukie Even if it ends up being mostly sleet, let's consider it laying down a thick glacier base to support all the future dendrites coming in prime climo. No snowflake left behind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Doing current extrapolation of dewpoints at steady onset it looks like regions surface will be running 30-33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 not sure i can even picture what 10 inches of sleet looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Has this been posted yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.