WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Without being a weenie, I’d say to ignore the Canadian (look how far northwest the track is compared to the rest) and weight the GFS thermal profile low relative to the euro and 3k nam. This is an interesting test for the FV3. It’s been colder than the op GFS on this storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Without being a weenie, I’d say to ignore the Canadian (look how far northwest the track is compared to the rest) and weight the GFS thermal profile low relative to the euro and 3k nam. This is an interesting test for the FV3. It’s been colder than the op GFS on this storm so far. I think this storm will be a great test as well for the FV3... its snow/sleet algorithm on TT really needs to be fixed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 New GFS doesn't look as good now, either. You can't really tell what happens between 18 and 24 though. I'm guessing it's a short period of snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 lulz... even 1/4 of this would be acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Per Wes: Quote Jason will be writing today's article on the coming storm. I'll be providing a quote. This is still a tricky forecast as cold air damming can be tenacious but recently the NAM has been running a tad cold. Look to the HRRR and high resolution NAM forecasts of surface temps they should be better than those of the GFS. Looks like mostly rain for DC and places east and south as strong southeasterly winds at 850 mb help shove a warm layer through the region. Yes DC might see a brief period of sleet with maybe a few flakes mixed in at onset but with no real accumulations to impact the commute. North and west of the city slick roads could develop especially as you get into Montgomery county and western Fairfax county. I'll post Jason's Capital Weather Gang article when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, H2O said: They always luck out. they don't have to deal with the warm Atlantic ocean like we do. They are too far south for that. They've gotten more snow since I've left than I have up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 That will probably be rectified this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: lulz... even 1/4 of this would be acceptable LOL, I don't even see how that's possible based on just the precip panels. It only possibly snows/sleets in Baltimore, for example, for a max of six hours and probably much less than that, yet it shows 9 inches. But yes, 1/4 of that would be pretty historic and quite exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: LOL, I don't even see how that's possible based on just the precip panels. It only possibly snows/sleets in Baltimore, for example, for a max of six hours and probably much less than that, yet it shows 9 inches. But yes, 1/4 of that would be pretty historic and quite exciting. The precip type is computed off of the thermodynamic profiles; the water equivalent of snow (+sleet) is from the model microphysics. That's how that can differ. And this is clearly a case when the 10:1 ratios won't come close to working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Yeah, 10:1 for sleet just makes clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: Yeah, 10:1 for sleet just makes clown maps. Big pink pretty ones at that. Yes, a 1/4 of totals of that above map would be awesome for most this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Now I know how the Richmond folks on this forum felt all these years. No idea where we fit into the conversation since the discussion here is so DMV specific. Also, sorry to the Richmond folks for bringing the snow curse back down South this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, high risk said: The precip type is computed off of the thermodynamic profiles; the water equivalent of snow (+sleet) is from the model microphysics. That's how that can differ. And this is clearly a case when the 10:1 ratios won't come close to working. Thanks, did not know that's the way that's computed on the model. I was just looking at the precip panels and seeing how little time it was potentially snowing or sleeting over us and didn't see how it could possibly add up to that, but that makes sense. And obviously the 10:1 ratio throws it off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 16 hours ago, mattie g said: My breakdown for Burke: >2”: 0% 1-2”: 1% 0.5-1”: 10% 0.1-0.49”: 40% T: 48% 0”: 1% And I don’t really care because it’ll be November 15 when this happens. If this were early December and the same apparent outcome were to happen I’d probably be a little more miffed, but I’m more interested to see storm after storm heading up the coast with plenty of cold air around. No updates to this IMBY forecast. May the rest of you fare as well as I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Left this morning expecting to come back to a model disco. Instead it looks like it was more a therapy session then anything else for the last 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Left this morning expecting to come back to a model disco. Instead it looks like it was more a therapy session then anything else for the last 4 hours. you should sit in on one of my therapy sessions, i assure you, this is nothing compared to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Left this morning expecting to come back to a model disco. Instead it looks like it was more a therapy session then anything else for the last 4 hours. You know nothing is going on when there are more posts in banter than the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Left this morning expecting to come back to a model disco. Instead it looks like it was more a therapy session then anything else for the last 4 hours. The kings about to pass his sentence. Then we’ll be set one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: You know nothing is going on when there are more posts in banter than the discussion. This is one of those where we just have to watch it unfold live I suppose. Not sure a true model discussion would help anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: This is one of those where we just have to watch it unfold live I suppose. Not sure a true model discussion would help anything. This sounds like what we say when the models all look like crap and we know our only hope is a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The kings about to pass his sentence. Then we’ll be set one way or another. Whether we score or not I am just happy to see how these systems are evolving. Good omen for just down the road. Besides I have a feeling in the next couple/few days we will have a system or two to track for shortly after Thanksgiving. Would definitely ease the pain for some in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 All I can tell with TT maps is that it’s warmer at 850 at 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: All I can tell with TT maps is that it’s warmer at 850 at 12z tomorrow sure is. however, its not until between 18z and 00z that most places go above 0 at 850. hell, per Euro I am still at 0° at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Whether we score or not I am just happy to see how these systems are evolving. Good omen for just down the road. Besides I have a feeling in the next couple/few days we will have a system or two to track for shortly after Thanksgiving. Would definitely ease the pain for some in here. If folks are already in pain on 11/14, someone needs to move Mr. Grim Reaper to #1 on speed dial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Dewpoints are key and not onset time. We can survive post sunrise as this is a late Jan sun. March events onset time would be main concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: All I can tell with TT maps is that it’s warmer at 850 at 12z tomorrow Euro snow depth maps have lowered amounts on the southern edge. Showing 2" for DC, 2-3 for Balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: sure is. however, its not until between 18z and 00z that most places go above 0 at 850. hell, per Euro I am still at 0° at 00z Per weather.us, euro is still clearly the best for all of us. Starts as snow for everyone and several hours for from MBY and points north. I’d happily take it. Hope it’s right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 gotta keep that hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Per weather.us, euro is still clearly the best for all of us. Starts as snow for everyone and several hours for from MBY and points north. I’d happily take it. Hope it’s right. I don't like the euro being by itself with the coldest solution. Would go a long ways if the 18-0z suites tick colder in the mids. If they don't then it has the feel that the euro is too cold imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I don't like the euro being by itself with the coldest solution. Would go a long ways if the 18-0z suites tick colder in the mids. If they don't then it has the feel that the euro is too cold imo agree. If it's right I would expect the mesos to pick up on it this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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