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November 15 Snow/Ice Chance


showmethesnow

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The 12k is DEFINITELY more snowy at the onset at face value for you guys up there. JI is not trolling on that one hahahaha. Raging sleet storm all the way down the rest of the 81 corridor. This is referencing 36 hrs. 

@WinterWxLuvr @leesburg 04 And the rest of the crew up in NW VA. This has your name written all over it. 81 corridor never changes over according to the 12k.

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Other big thing on the 3k is it’s only shifted the HP system a couple hundred miles west southwest from 18z. Instead of having it in northeastern VT it now has it around the Syracuse NY area, which is a much better spot for low level funneling. This is at 32hrs I’m referencing.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Nam3k looks sleetbomb:(

 

Just now, BristowWx said:

Yes thickness is killing us.  It would have been a snow bomb at 540

This time of year for me I take what I get. We’re normally in freakin flip flops and look forward to what January is going to bring at this point of the year the last couple years at least. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

At least it has a lot of backing. Fv3 is cash money as well lol. RGEM is the most impressive I just worry about it’s cold bias from last year.

Yes. The RGEM really struggled last year. At least all of the short range models have some frozen for just about everyone in this thread. You cant say that in November very often.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Precip timing near perfect. Many areas will be at or below freezing for several hours prior.

Both nams are good with me. I know I'm mixing and going to rain no matter what and both are a good event for Nov. 

Yep. White for a few hours from the sky and the ground covered is a win in Nov.

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

00z RGEM 2-3 hours of sleet for DC before rain...I’ll take.  Switches most of the sub forum to rain Thursday afternoon...favored areas hang on the longest obviously.  

I will say the RGEM is very ominous down this way and has been run on run due to it coming in at an optimal time and really both the 3k and 12k are as well. I have that gut feeling this thing overperforms for a lot of folks here. 

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

00z RGEM 2-3 hours of sleet for DC before rain...I’ll take.  Switches most of the sub forum to rain Thursday afternoon...favored areas hang on the longest obviously.  

I'm wondering if the RGEM is switching over too quickly.  The NAMs don't have the switch over that fast and aren't they faster than the RGEM getting precip into the region?

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