aldie 22 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 My bar is the crunchy leaves on the ground have a nice cover of sleet and snow making for a beautiful late fall early winter scene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I can't wait to deal with sleet-mageddon down this way. Sure, we'll mix with a touch of snow at the onset, but most soundings I've seen are super sleet-y around CHO. Then it changes over to ZR before going to cold rain. It'll be interesting to see just how much sleet we can get (currently thinking 0.3-0.5") and if that cold rain can create some decent sheets of ice. At least this is a good test run for future winter weather events around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 My bar is any amount that will vaguely whiten things up, so maybe 0.7” or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 FV3 is a pounding for I-81. Never goes above freezing. Areas of solid 1.5"/1.75" of precip out west where it never goes above freezing. Sleet/FRZA hellscape. Even pretty damn close here in Charlottesville, where we get 1.25-1.5" without going above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 My bar is 2 inches of anything cold. Always nice to record anything before Turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Would love to have more sleet than ZR. HP up in NY would help a ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 My bar is set at dusting to an inch. Think that’s reasonable. And in other bar news, I’ll be at the Columbia Alehouse drinking Founders CBS while it’s hopefully puking white asteroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 All models today are so borderline witb mid level temps that it's nearly impossible to have confidence. The optimistic side of the coin is snow moves in hot and heavy and lasts a little longer than expected before mixing. Pessimistic side of the coin is mid levels don't support any snow at onset and it's just a bunch of sleet before rain. Surface temps are no different. The euro had the 32 line straddling the beltway. That's pretty cold man. If the column does support snow and the surface is at or below freezing then it could be winter wonderland very quickly for everyone along and west of 95. The basic climo side of the argument says prepare to be disappointed except in the preferred zones where climo isn't so hostile. Lastly is precip amounts... this is a juiced up storm with upper level support. Rates look to come in hot and heavy with the WWA piece. So whatever the precip type is its going to mean business from onset until sometime in the early afternoon. Gun to head.... Winchester-Mt airy-Parkville line will get 3-5" of various frozen precip types. Burbs and beltway crews in the 1-3" range if everything breaks right but T-2" is prob a better call. Fairfax county schools will be closed even if its all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: My bar is 2 inches of anything cold. Always nice to record anything before Turkey day. Except rain which will also be cold. Still I think our location is not awful. Not great but we might be able to hang on to frozen in W PW for a decent amount of time. 1 inch of something frozen. Good enough for me. And a short period of fatties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All models today are so borderline witb mid level temps that it's nearly impossible to have confidence. The optimistic side of the coin is snow moves in hot and heavy and lasts a little longer than expected before mixing. Pessimistic side of the coin is mid levels don't support any snow at onset and it's just a bunch of sleet before rain. Surface temps are no different. The euro had the 32 line straddling the beltway. That's pretty cold man. If the column does support snow and the surface is at or below freezing then it could be winter wonderland very quickly for everyone along and west of 95. The basic climo side of the argument says prepare to be disappointed except in the preferred zones where climo isn't so hostile. Lastly is precip amounts... this is a juiced up storm with upper level support. Rates look to come in hot and heavy with the WWA piece. So whatever the precip type is its going to mean business from onset until sometime in the early afternoon. Gun to head.... Winchester-Mt airy-Parkville line will get 3-5" of various frozen precip types. Burbs and beltway crews in the 1-3" range if everything breaks right but T-2" is prob a better call. Fairfax county schools will be closed even if its all rain. I remember those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I’m probably the only one on here that loves freezing rain. Small amounts are boring cuz only colder surfaces ice up but I would love a huge ice storm with 4” of ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, NoVaWx said: I’m probably the only one on here that loves freezing rain. Small amounts are boring cuz only colder surfaces ice up but I would love a huge ice storm with 4” of ice accretion. Zr has its moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Zr has its moments. I would like to see a real ZR event with temp of 20. Not too common in these parts. 28-32 is just watching my holly tree get shimmery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, Scraff said: My bar is set at dusting to an inch. Think that’s reasonable. And in other bar news, I’ll be at the Columbia Alehouse drinking Founders CBS while it’s hopefully puking white asteroids. My favorite bar around us... such a damn good burger and great beers and a nice atmosphere - we gotta meet up one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I would like to see a real ZR event with temp of 20. Not too common in these parts. 28-32 is just watching my holly tree get shimmery I would sell 2 of my kids for a foot of ZR and the other 2 for a cat 5 up the bay and left turn at point lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 If I had to handicap it for MBY, I’d go with: seeing some snow or sleet: 90% measurable snow/sleet (>=0.1”): 70% 1” or more: 40% 2” or more: 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I would like to see a real ZR event with temp of 20. Not too common in these parts. 28-32 is just watching my holly tree get shimmery I'm roughly 12 miles to your east Southeast so I will be able to report on my change over so you know what's headed your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 GEFS followed the lead of the op of bringing the precip sooner in the early morning hours of Thursday. Also saw a fairly significant uptick on the snowfall mean as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Can't hate the fact that this thing has continued to trend in a favorable fashion regardless of the snow outcome. I don't know if that's a sign or not for the winter but it sure does make the lead up a heck of a lot more enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Can't hate the fact that this thing has continued to trend in a favorable fashion regardless of the snow outcome. I don't know if that's a sign or not for the winter but it sure does make the lead up a heck of a lot more enjoyable. Atmosphere seems to go by memory so maybe a foreshadowing of D/J/F. Or maybe we're using all our good luck up with this storm. My bar is seeing some type of frozen fall from the sky in MBY given its not even the second half of November yet. I wish I was at Deep Creek for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, Stormpc said: I'm roughly 12 miles to your east Southeast so I will be able to report on my change over so you know what's headed your way. Thanks. Jeb used to do that. I live just south of Wonderdog. Let’s hope the freezing line stays right along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 After looking over some things since the 12Z runs I have to wonder if the bigger story might be the ice/sleet storm that some people get. Have a feeling that we will see a band 25-50 miles wide of a fairly significant ice storm shaping up centered on or near the cities. Also leaning towards the favored areas to the west and around PA line actually have warning criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Let the 31.8 degree daylight ice storm talk commence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Let the 31.8 degree daylight ice storm talk commence! That’s the temp that always gets me. My tired eyes want to see 31 on my digital thermometer and then closer look is 37...tear inducing discovery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 55 minutes ago, Scraff said: My bar is set at dusting to an inch. Think that’s reasonable. And in other bar news, I’ll be at the Columbia Alehouse drinking Founders CBS while it’s hopefully puking white asteroids. They have CBS on draft? Keep me posted. I would meet you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I just want to see a good solid thump for a few hours. Back end will probably be too far north for us, not enough cold air for the closed low to tap at this latitude. IT will be interesting from the poconos to central ne though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 It’s obviously not mid-winter like last year, so take that caveat as you will, but we had two ice storms last year that accreted at 34/35 degrees. If we get a base down early enough things can get slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Is there really an 18z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 52 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Thanks. Jeb used to do that. I live just south of Wonderdog. Let’s hope the freezing line stays right along 95. I'm probably five or so miles NW of you Bristow. Those five miles may be the difference between a white icy landscape and puddles and puddles of ice cold rain. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is there really an 18z euro? Yes. Looking at it now. Precip comes in quickly and cools the column nicely...850s in DC go from +1 to -3 from 9z to 12z. But surface is 34 in the city and warms to 36 in the afternoon. You stay at/below freezing at the surface until overnight into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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