Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3k nam soundings are pretty interesting. Warm layer is mostly above 800mb during much of the precip and it's fairly shallow. Very borderline soundings that don't really give confidence in any direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 3k nam soundings are pretty interesting. Warm layer is mostly above 800mb during much of the precip and it's fairly shallow. Very borderline soundings that don't really give confidence in any direction. can we please get a winter storm during winter so we dont have took at every single layer please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Do you even remember last winter. Every storm had more layers than an Ogre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Snow depth map vs. the 10-1 is just crazy in how different it is. Could be a lot of frozen precip (i.e., sleet, frza) on top of any snow. Depth: 10:1 I’m lovin, touchin, and squeezin the 10:1 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Wow these snow maps. Goldsboro, MD looks like it could be snow/wintry mix for a couple hours then rain possibly for the rest of the event. Still a win because it's only mid-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: can we please get a winter storm during winter so we dont have took at every single layer please No problem as long as we only look at upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: I’m lovin, touchin, and squeezin the 10:1 map. Yeah, but I'll be very satisfied with the other. 2-3 inches in mid Nov is sweet. I looked at my records which go back to 1979. 15th- 0.5 1986, T 2014 16th- T 2007, T 2008 So just about anything accumulating is gonna be a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The 3km NAM has the Ferrier SLR in addition to the 10:1 SLR. Not gonna post the maps but there is a dramatic difference lol. Of course the concept with the Ferrier correction is to be more accurate with modeled snow accumulations in marginal storms, and where there is a likelihood of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 346 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 MDZ501-502-VAZ026>030-507-WVZ050-051-055-501>506-140500- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0006.181115T0900Z-181116T1100Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 346 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed wintry precipitation possible. Total ice accumulations of one quarter inch or greater are possible. Total snow and sleet accumulation of several inches is also possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Slippery road conditions are possible. Scattered power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes on Thursday. Any ice accumulation on paved surfaces including driveways, sidewalks, and parking lots, could also create hazardous conditions for those venturing out on foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Winter Storm Watch to my south and west but does not (yet) include Martinsburg and Hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 346 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 VAZ025-503-504-508-140500- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0006.181115T0600Z-181116T0600Z/ Augusta-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 346 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed wintry precipitation possible. Total ice accumulations of one quarter inch or greater are possible. Total snow and sleet accumulation of several inches is also possible. * WHERE...Augusta, Western Highland and Eastern Highland Counties, along with the Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Slippery road conditions are possible. Scattered power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes on Thursday. Any ice accumulation on paved surfaces including driveways, sidewalks, and parking lots, could also create hazardous conditions for those venturing out on foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Yeah, but I'll be very satisfied with the other. 2-3 inches in mid Nov is sweet. I looked at my records which go back to 1979. 15th- 0.5 1986, T 2014 16th- T 2007, T 2008 So just about anything accumulating is gonna be a record. That is why we should not expect anything but some TV snow outside of the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Wondering how Snowshoe, WV might fare. Some of the (clown) maps are calling for some high totals in the WV mountains - even the RLX NWS is calling for a 1 in 10 chance of 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: That is why we should not expect anything but some TV snow outside of the mountains lol come on now... nothing outside the mountains? I-81 corridor is not all mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 it's literally his job to say that i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: That is why we should not expect anything but some TV snow outside of the mountains I think there will be a fair bit of IP. I’m not one to be too positive but I think most areas west of the bay will see a period of frozen more than just TV snow. Sun angle is ok if that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 hours ago, H2O said: Dec 5th 2009 Then I’m in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18z RGEM suggests light snow starts falling at DCA at around 10z THUR... to maybe a short period of mod snow at 12z? 18z RGEM is also a few hours faster than the 12z run and a bit colder as well to start comparing 12z at 48 to 18z at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Anyone know what the standard ratio for sleet is? RGEM just absolutely whacked parts of Virginia with sleet/ice. ~.75" frozen in Cville but I don't think any of it was snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Anyone know what the standard ratio for sleet is? RGEM just absolutely whacked parts of Virginia with sleet/ice. 3 to 1 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Anyone know what the standard ratio for sleet is? RGEM just absolutely whacked parts of Virginia with sleet/ice. 3:1 I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I believe sleet will be the big story for many when we do the after storm analysis. Thickness just not great for many to support a good snow event. Ice is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Anyone know what the standard ratio for sleet is? RGEM just absolutely whacked parts of Virginia with sleet/ice. ~.75" frozen in Cville but I don't think any of it was snow. RGEM/12K NAM would be nuts for the 81 corridor in VA. QPF is plentiful with this one no doubting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 28 minutes ago, yoda said: lol come on now... nothing outside the mountains? I-81 corridor is not all mountains I consider anything west of Braddock Heights the mountains... so basically Frederick west... I-81 is a very good divider for this time of year... IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Watches posted for the I-81 corridor @WinterWxLuvr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Anyone know what the standard ratio for sleet is? RGEM just absolutely whacked parts of Virginia with sleet/ice. ~.75" frozen in Cville but I don't think any of it was snow. As others said it's about 3-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Latest GFS strengthened the high (1040) and put it in a better position while moving precip in the area faster. Nice tiny little changes that will hopefully continue to add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 41 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I believe sleet will be the big story for many when we do the after storm analysis. Thickness just not great for many to support a good snow event. Ice is cool. Totally agree. I really like sleet except when it happens unexpectedly during a snow event. Forecasted sleetstorms are great. Especially in deep winter when it's below freezing. Nothing has the staying power of glaciated sleetcover. Feb 07 was the epitome of glaciation I'm ready to set my bar for this event in my yard. I'll go with anything at or above 1" measurable as a huge success. Don't care if it's snow/sleet/grauple/mangled dendrites or anything in between. I want to measure 1"+ on my patio table and call this event a huge success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Tommy T has 3-4” for my backyard in his forecast. Sound about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Tommy T has 3-4” for my backyard in his forecast. Sound about right? I'm setting my bar at 2-3" right now and if it's more then that I'll be over the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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