North Balti Zen Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 12:29 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Is there really an 18z euro? Expand Yes, new. Just started a few weeks ago with four runs a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 12:34 AM, nj2va said: Yes. Looking at it now. Precip comes in quickly and cools the column nicely...850s in DC go from +1 to -3 from 9z to 12z. But surface is 34 in the city and warms to 36 in the afternoon. You stay at/below freezing at the surface until overnight into Friday. Expand How does it compare to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 11:27 PM, leesburg 04 said: Can't hate the fact that this thing has continued to trend in a favorable fashion regardless of the snow outcome. I don't know if that's a sign or not for the winter but it sure does make the lead up a heck of a lot more enjoyable. Expand Thank god it's mid November. If this storm happened as is during met winter Ji would melt down worse than the mangled flakes in my yard on Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 12:29 AM, Wonderdog said: I'm probably five or so miles NW of you Bristow. Those five miles may be the difference between a white icy landscape and puddles and puddles of ice cold rain. lol Expand My biggest fear is that exact scenario. But I now totally expect that. I live west of 28 near the Safeway. No doubt where the R/S line will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 12:36 AM, WxUSAF said: How does it compare to 12z? Expand Overall, I’d say a step back but the positives are quicker precip and cooler 850s at onset. Precip starts in DC by 12z (0.1” already fallen by 12z in DC in the 18z run vs the 0.1” line SW of Manass at 12z run).. 850s slightly colder at the start. Surface starts a touch colder in places but its a warmer run at the surface overall than 12z. Looking at the verbatim 10:1 snowfall maps, definitely cut back...2.5” runs through DC vs 4.5” at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 9:28 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Anyone know what the standard ratio for sleet is? RGEM just absolutely whacked parts of Virginia with sleet/ice. ~.75" frozen in Cville but I don't think any of it was snow. Expand Yeah. The RGEM is all frozen west of the Blue Ridge. Wish it went out a little further. I would like to see how we all do with the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 12:46 AM, nj2va said: Overall, I’d say a step back but the positives are quicker precip and cooler 850s at onset. Precip starts in DC by 12z (0.1” already fallen by 12z in DC in the 18z run vs the 0.1” line SW of Manass at 12z run).. 850s slightly colder at the start. Surface starts a touch colder in places but its a warmer run at the surface overall than 12z. Looking at the verbatim 10:1 snowfall maps, definitely cut back...2.5” runs through DC vs 4.5” at 12z. Expand Euro temps have always been a lot more spot on for MBY than most others so warmer isn’t better for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 12:51 AM, H2O said: Euro temps have always been a lot more spot on for MBY than most others so warmer isn’t better for me Expand We’ll enjoy our 10 minutes of sleet followed by an 1” of 34 degree rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 12:53 AM, nj2va said: We’ll enjoy our 10 minutes of sleet followed by an 1” of 34 degree rain. Expand Well you didn’t use the emoji with the ax in his head so can’t be too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 For a minute I thought this thread was titled “November 15 no ice chance” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 12:56 AM, BristowWx said: Well you didn’t use the emoji with the ax in his head so can’t be too bad Expand It’s Nov 13 today...can’t really complain about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 11:37 PM, showmethesnow said: After looking over some things since the 12Z runs I have to wonder if the bigger story might be the ice/sleet storm that some people get. Have a feeling that we will see a band 25-50 miles wide of a fairly significant ice storm shaping up centered on or near the cities. Also leaning towards the favored areas to the west and around PA line actually have warning criteria snows. Expand Significant ice storm near the cities? That's going to be extremely difficult to accomplish given the very warm antecedent ground/road temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 12:46 AM, nj2va said: Overall, I’d say a step back but the positives are quicker precip and cooler 850s at onset. Precip starts in DC by 12z (0.1” already fallen by 12z in DC in the 18z run vs the 0.1” line SW of Manass at 12z run).. 850s slightly colder at the start. Surface starts a touch colder in places but its a warmer run at the surface overall than 12z. Looking at the verbatim 10:1 snowfall maps, definitely cut back...2.5” runs through DC vs 4.5” at 12z. Expand Thanks. Makes sense. Seems like we’re converging on consensus with the euro on the cold side and GFS on the warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertRath Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/13/2018 at 9:07 PM, sarcean said: Wondering how Snowshoe, WV might fare. Some of the (clown) maps are calling for some high totals in the WV mountains - even the RLX NWS is calling for a 1 in 10 chance of 12". Expand Last I saw the NWS has them under a WSWatch expecting 1-3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I’ll eat my phone if I get 6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 12:29 AM, Wonderdog said: I'm probably five or so miles NW of you Bristow. Those five miles may be the difference between a white icy landscape and puddles and puddles of ice cold rain. lol Expand I am 8 miles NW (Haymarket) of you Wonderdog, but unfortunately I don’t think it will make much of a difference this time. We do love a good CAD event at the base of Bull Run “mtn” but climo is a B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 My breakdown for Burke: >2”: 0% 1-2”: 1% 0.5-1”: 10% 0.1-0.49”: 40% T: 48% 0”: 1% And I don’t really care because it’ll be November 15 when this happens. If this were early December and the same apparent outcome were to happen I’d probably be a little more miffed, but I’m more interested to see storm after storm heading up the coast with plenty of cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 1:32 AM, WxUSAF said: I’ll eat my phone if I get 6” Expand If I get 11" I'll worship the FV3 all winter and pimp it's crazy stupid snowfall maps no matter how ludicrous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 DPs look to be near 20 in the colder spots to upper 20s in the cities at precip onset. Should help with cooling temps initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 2:09 AM, nj2va said: DPs look to be near 20 in the colder spots to upper 20s in the cities at precip onset. Should help with cooling temps initially. Expand The way this “over achieves” for us in the marginal zones is if it comes in hot and heavy. Cool the column and get a quick inch or two before the flip. Nice to be chasing a marginal event in November as opposed to the April Hail Mary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Nam destroys us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 2:18 AM, Ji said: Nam destroys us Expand Seriously or are you trolling? I'm out and about right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 This reminds me a lot of December 8, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 2:18 AM, Ji said: Nam destroys us Expand wow even for the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 2:19 AM, yoda said: Seriously or are you trolling? I'm out and about right now Expand I think he's talking about the 32k. My 3k isn't out far enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 2:19 AM, osfan24 said: This reminds me a lot of December 8, 2013.I wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 2:19 AM, yoda said: Seriously or are you trolling? I'm out and about right now Expand It’s pretty sweet. For Nov at least. Positive snow depth change is not too shabby. 12K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 2:21 AM, Ji said: On 11/14/2018 at 2:19 AM, osfan24 said: This reminds me a lot of December 8, 2013. Expand I wish Expand It will proabably be a toned down version since it's three weeks earlier, but I think there could be a band that comes in and drops some good snow for 2-3 hours before the sleet begins. It'll probably be a little less snow for most and then less sleet and more rain than December 8, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 2:18 AM, Ji said: Nam destroys us Expand Can you be more descriptive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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