Amazing 140%-175% Of Normal 2010's Seasonal Snowfall

[bluewave]

Our local stations continue to experience an amazing increase in seasonal snowfall during the 2010's. While all stations have seen a big increase over 1981-2010 means, Islip has shown the greatest positive departures. Islip is averaging 173% of normal seasonal snowfall for the 2010's so far.

NYC

1981-2010....25.8......2010's......39.8....154%

09-10...51.4.....199%

10-11...61.9.....240%

11-12.....7.4.....29%

12-13....26.1.....101%

13-14....57.4.....222%

14-15....50.3.....195%

15-16.....32.8....127%

16-17.....30.2....117%

17-18.....40.9....159%

EWR

1981-2010....28.5....2010's....40.5....142%

09-10...47.9....168%

10-11....68.2....239%

11-12....8.8......33%

12-13....29.5....103%

13-14.....61.1....214%

14-15....46.4.....163%

15-16....32.8.....115%

16-17....30.0.....105%

17-18....39.4.....138%

LGA

1981-2010....26.9.....2010's.....37.1.....138%

09-10....41.3.....154%

10-11....51.6.....192%

11-12......5.1.....19%

12-13.....22.2....83%

13-14....52.4.....195%

14-15....53.8.....200%

15-16....36.2.....135%

16-17....33.2.....123%

17-18....38.4.....143%

JFK

1981-2010....23.8.....2010's....34.2....144%

09-10....47.2....198%

10-11....42.0....177%

11-12.....3.7.....16%

12-13.....17.6....74%

13-14.....45.6....192%

14-15.....44.2....186%

15-16.....41.4....174%

16-17.....30.9....130%

17-18.....35.5....149%

ISP

1981-2010....28.0.....2010's....48.3....173%

09-10...53.8....192%

10-11...55.3....198%

11-12.....4.7....17%

12-13.....46.9...168%

13-14.....63.7...228%

14-15.....63.7...228%

15-16....41.4....148%

16-17....39.3....140%

17-18....65.9....235%

BDR

1981-2010...27.6....2010's....45.5...165%

09-10...38.1...138%

10-11...62.3...226%

11-12...13.6....49%

12-13...64.3...233%

13-14...57.4...208%

14-15...59.7...217%

15-16...27.3...99%

16-17...40.9...148%

17-18...45.9...166%

 

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

With a +NAO for the last 5 years.. Those years don't even compare in precip to this year too. 

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

With a +NAO for the last 5 years.. Those years don't even compare in precip to this year too. 

-EPO has saved the day....

[doncat]

43.2" here during that period...There was one clunker, the 11'12 winter with 9.3".

[IrishRob17]

51.8" average up here during that period, two clunkers 11-12 with 23.5" and 15-16 with 12.1"

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Our local stations continue to experience an amazing increase in seasonal snowfall during the 2010's. While all stations have seen a big increase over 1981-2010 means, Islip has shown the greatest positive departures. Islip is averaging nearly 200% of normal seasonal snowfall for the 2010's so far.

NYC

1981-2010....25.8......2010's......39.8....154%

09-10...51.4.....199%

10-11...61.9.....240%

11-12.....7.4.....29%

12-13....26.1.....101%

13-14....57.4.....222%

14-15....50.3.....195%

15-16.....32.8....127%

16-17.....30.2....117%

17-18.....40.9....159%

 

 

 

 

 

People laughed at DT`s 200 % of N forecast , I don`t think he`s going to be very far off. 

I want to include another analog year here . 02/03 49.3 inches - 191 % of N 

This is why I am at 50 inches + for the season and I know Don is too. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Can`t ask for better,

 

 

[LibertyBell]

On 11/8/2018 at 9:13 AM, bluewave said:

Our local stations continue to experience an amazing increase in seasonal snowfall during the 2010's. While all stations have seen a big increase over 1981-2010 means, Islip has shown the greatest positive departures. Islip is averaging nearly 200% of normal seasonal snowfall for the 2010's so far.

NYC

1981-2010....25.8......2010's......39.8....154%

09-10...51.4.....199%

10-11...61.9.....240%

11-12.....7.4.....29%

12-13....26.1.....101%

13-14....57.4.....222%

14-15....50.3.....195%

15-16.....32.8....127%

16-17.....30.2....117%

17-18.....40.9....159%

EWR

1981-2010....28.5....2010's....40.5....142%

09-10...47.9....168%

10-11....68.2....239%

11-12....8.8......33%

12-13....29.5....103%

13-14.....61.1....214%

14-15....46.4.....163%

15-16....32.8.....115%

16-17....30.0.....105%

17-18....39.4.....138%

LGA

1981-2010....26.9.....2010's.....37.1.....138%

09-10....41.3.....154%

10-11....51.6.....192%

11-12......5.1.....19%

12-13.....22.2....83%

13-14....52.4.....195%

14-15....53.8.....200%

15-16....36.2.....135%

16-17....33.2.....123%

17-18....38.4.....143%

JFK

1981-2010....23.8.....2010's....34.2....144%

09-10....47.2....198%

10-11....42.0....177%

11-12.....3.7.....16%

12-13.....17.6....74%

13-14.....45.6....192%

14-15.....44.2....186%

15-16.....41.4....174%

16-17.....30.9....130%

17-18.....35.5....149%

ISP

1981-2010....24.8.....2010's....48.3....195%

09-10...53.8....222%

10-11...55.3....223%

11-12.....4.7....19%

12-13.....46.9...189%

13-14.....63.7...257%

14-15.....63.7...257%

15-16....41.4....167%

16-17....39.3....158%

17-18....65.9....266%

BDR

1981-2010...27.6....2010's....45.5...165%

09-10...38.1...138%

10-11...62.3...226%

11-12...13.6....49%

12-13...64.3...233%

13-14...57.4...208%

14-15...59.7...217%

15-16...27.3...99%

16-17...40.9...148%

17-18...45.9...166%

 

 

 

lol I hated 11-12 and 12-13, JFK received three quarters their average in 12-13, while Islip got almost 2x their average.  11-12 was bad everywhere.

And remember that the 00s decade was great for Long Island too!  Do you have Brookhaven/Upton snowfall numbers too, Chris? I bet they did even better than Islip did in both decades!

[LibertyBell]

On 11/8/2018 at 10:29 AM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

People laughed at DT`s 200 % of N forecast , I don`t think he`s going to be very far off. 

I want to include another analog year here . 02/03 49.3 inches - 191 % of N 

This is why I am at 50 inches + for the season and I know Don is too. 

and NYC undermeasured PD2, JFK had over 60" of snow in 2002-03, I rank it right up there with 1995-96 (in which NYC also undermeasured the Jan 1996 Blizzard) for wall to wall snow and historic events!

[LibertyBell]

Most of us are in the middle of a sneaky snowy streak, 30" or more of seasonal snowfall for 5 straight years.  Whats the record for that?  Islip has actually had 30" or more of seasonal snowfall now for 6 straight years.  The only one not streaking is BDR because I guess they didn't do so well in the historic Jan 2016 blizzard.  If it wasn't for that, they would have had  6 straight years of 30"+ seasonal snowfall too.

[uncle W]

snow depth for NYC...mostly from Central park...every three days starting with Dec. 1st...it is possible and has happened in the past a snowfall could fall between dates and melt before the third day...

.............................December...................................January.......................................February......................................March.................

year.....01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31...03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30...02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29...02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29

51-52....0...0...0...0...0...2...1...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...3.....T...0...0...0...0...0...T...T...0...1.....1...0...T...0...T...0...0...0...0...0

52-53....T...2...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...3.....T...T...T...T....0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

53-54....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...T...9...7...7...T...T....0...0.....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T

54-55....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...1...T...0...T....0...0.....3...1...0...T...T...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...0...0...0...3...0...0...T...0

55-56....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...3...T...0...T.....T...0...0...0...T...0...T....0...0...0.....T...0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0....T.....0...T...0...1...0...6...8...1...0...0

56-57....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...T.....0...T...T...0...2...3...T....0...2...T.....6...T...0...0...T...0...0...0...0....T.....T...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...0...0

57-58....0...8...1...0...1...T...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...4...3...T...2...1...0...0...0.....0...0...1...T...T...8...5...1...T....T.....0...0...0...0...2...0.11...T...0...0

58-59....0...0...0...2...1...1...T...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...1...0.....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0....0.....0...0...0...5...1...0...0...0...0...T

59-60....0...0...T...0...0...0...0.14...4...T...0.....0...0...0...2...T...T...T...T....0...0.....T...0...T...1...0...0...0...0...0...T...12.12...3...T...T....T...0...0...0...0

60-61....0...0...0...0.15.10...7...2...1...T...T.....0...0...0...0...1...T...9.10..13...9.....8.24.17.11..5...4...T...0...0...T......0...0...1...0...0...T...0...0...0...0

61-62....0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...6...3...1.....T...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T.....2...0...0...2...2...1...1...T....0...0.....0...T...T...0...0...0...T...0...0...0

62-63....0...0...T...1...T...T...0...3...T....0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...4...4.....4...1...0...0...0...0...2...T...T...T.....1...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0

63-64....0...0...0...0...T...T...1...T....6...5...2.....2...T...0...1.13...8...T...0...0...0.....0...0...T...2...0...T...6...5...2...1.....0...0...0...1...0...0...1...0...0...0

64-65....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0.....1...0...0...6...T...4...2...3...1...T.....1...T...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...T...T...1...T...0...0

65-66....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...2...2...7.....8...4...2...T...0...0...0...0...4...T.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

66-67....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T...7...5...T.....T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T.....0...0.13.11...8...T...1...4...T...1.....0...0...0...0...2...3...1...6...T...0

67-68....3...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...1...3.....3...3...3...2...T...0...0...T...0...0.....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...1.....T...0...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...0

68-69....0...0...0...0...0...5...1...T...0...2...0.....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...0.15.11...9...6...5...2...1.....3...T...1...T...0...0...0...0...0...0

69-70....T...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...2...4...2.....1...1...2...3...2...1...4...3...2...T.....0...3...1...0...1...2...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...4

70-71....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...2...T...0...0.....5...T...0...0...1...T...T...2...T....T.....0...T....T...0...T...0...0...0...0...0.....T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

71-72....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...T.....0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...T....T.....T...0...4...2...0...2...2...5...T....0.....0...T...0...T...1...0...0...0...0...0

72-73....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2.....0...0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

73-74....0...0...0...0...0...2...3...T...0...0...0.....T...1...1...4...4...4...1...T....0...0.....T...1...6...3...T...T....0...0...1...T.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2

74-75....0...0...0...T...0...0...T...0...T...0...0.....T...0...0...0...T...0...T....0...0...0.....0...3...0...0...6...T...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0

75-76....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...2...1...0...0.....0...0...0...2...T...0...2...1...0...0.....1...2...2...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...4...T...0...0...0...0...0...0

76-77....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...2.....T...T...2...1...6...5...3...2...2...2.....1...4...2...1...T...0...2...T....0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0

77-78....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0.....1...0...1...0...2...1.15.11..T...T......T...T.18.10.10...6...5...4...4...3.....8...4...3...1...T...1...0...0...0...0

78-79....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...3...0...T...0...T...0...0...0...0.....0...0...4...3...3...3.16...2...0...0.....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0

79-80....0...0...0...0...0...0...3...T...0...0...0.....0...1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...0...T.....0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0

80-81....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T...T....0.....2...2...4...3...2...2...1...T...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...6...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

81-82....0...0...0...T...0...T...0...T....0...0...0.....0...0...T...6...5...3...3...2...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

82-83....0...0...0...0...3...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...1...T...T...0...0...0.....0...0...2.14.16...8...3...T...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

83-84....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...1...T...0.....0...T...0...4...3...6...6...4...0...T......0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T.....0...0...0...7...3...T...0...0...0...2

84-85....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2...0.....0...T...0...T...T...4...3...1...T...T......4...6...5...3...T...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

85-86....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...1.....0...0...5...6...5...3...T...0...0...0.....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

86-87....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...1...7...9...6.....3...T...0...0...2...1...T...4...1...0.....0...0...0...2...0...0...0...0...0...0

87-88....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2.....2...5...9...4...3...1...0...0...2...1.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1.....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0

88-89....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0.....T....5...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...T.....0...3...2...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

89-90....0...T...0...0...T...1...T...0...0....T...T.....0...0...T...T....T...0...T...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2...0.....0...3...T...0...0...0...0...T...0...T

90-91....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...7...0.....0...0...T...4....0...0...2...T...0...0.....0...0...0...0...T...T....0...0...8...7.....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...T

91-92....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0.....0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...1...2...0...0

92-93....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T...0...0.....T...0...T....1...T...0...0...0...0...0.....T....0...2...0...1...0...0...1...T...T.....0...T...0....8...2...1...0...0...0...0

93-94....0...0...0...0...2...0...0...0...T...0...4.....T...1...2...5...3...5...5...5...7...1.....2...1...7.22.17.15...7...3...2...2.....7...4...T....T...T....3...T...0...T...0

94-95....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...8...7...5...4...2...0...0...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

95-96....1...0...0...T...0...1...5...7...3...2...1.....3...3.31.29...9...7...T...0...0...0.....1...6...4...0...1...9...2...0...0...0.....2...0...4...T...0...0...0...0...0...T

96-97....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...1...1...0...0...0...0...T...0.....0...0...3...0...1...T...0...0...0...0.....1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

97-98....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0

98-99....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0...T.....0...0...1...0...1...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0...1...0.....0...0...0...0...3...0...0...0...T...0

99-00....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...2...T...4...3.....2...4...1...0...0...0...1...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

00-01....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...T...0...0.12.....7...7...5...3...T...0...4...2...T...0.....0...5...0...0...0...T...0...6...0...0.....0...3...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

01-02....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...T...T...0...0...0...2...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...0

02-03....0...0...5...1...0...0...0...0...5...2...0.....0...T...1...0...T...T...T...0...2...1.....0...0...5...2...T..19.12...4...2...1.....T...3...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0..

03-04....0...0.13...6...T...T...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...T...5...3...2...2...8...7.....7...2...1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...4...0...0...0...0

04-05....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...2...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0.14.13.11.....8...6...4...0...0...0...1...T...4...6.....5...3...1...1...0...0...0...1...0...0

05-06....0...2...1...6...3...T...0...0...0...0...T.....T....0...0...0...2...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...2.15...2...0...0...0...T.....1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

06-07....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...1.....T....0...0...0...2...2...0...0...2...0.....0...0...0...0...0...3...T...0...0...0

07-08....0...0...T...0...T...1...0...0...0...0...T......0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...T...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...5...0...T.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

08-09....0...0...0...0...0...1...4...3...0...0...T......T...T...0...1...1...2...3...0...0...1.....T...3...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....8...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

09-10....0...0...0...0...0...0...9...7...2...0...1.....T...T...T....0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....1...0...0.10...8.10...4...0.21.15.....4...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

10-11....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0.18.13.....6...2...2...9...6...5...6...6.23.18...17.15.11...8...7...2...0...2...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...1...0...0

11-12....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...4...0...0...0.....0...0...T...T....0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

12-13....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0.....0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0.....T....T...6...9...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...4...0...0...3...0...0...0...0

13-14....0...0...0...1...0...3...3...0...0...0...T.....6...1...0...0...0...0.11...6...3...1.....1...9...9.10.18.17.15...9...6...6.....5...4...2...0...0...0...0...0...0...0

14-15....0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...1...1...T...0...0...0...3.10...7.....8...7...8...8...8.12...9...9.11.11...14.19.13...4...0...0...4...0...0...0

15-16....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...T...0...0...0.22...9...6......T...2...T...T...0...0...0....T...0...0.....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0

16-17....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....0...1...3...0...1...0...0...T...0...T......0...0...0...5...2...0...0...0...0...0.....0...0...0...T...6...3...0...0...0...0

17-18....0...0...0...4...T...2...0...0...T....0...T.....0...6...5...T...0...T...0...0...0...1......T...0...0...0...0...4...0...0...0...0.....0...0...2...T...0...0...8...0...0...0

 

[nj2va]

Impressive, this region is on quite the hot streak. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The Euro and GFS seem to be hinting at a significant November snowfall in 6-7 days. Is there any data on this?

[uncle W]

the 2010's are on pace for 30 snowfalls 4" or more...it has 24 since 2010-11...

ten year period........#

1890-91-1899-00...33

1900-01-1909-10...32

1910-11-1919-20...23

1920-21-1920-29...20

1930-31-1939-40...20

1940-41-1949-50...23

1950-51-1959-60...18

1960-61-1969-70...21

1970-71-1979-80...16

1980-81-1989-90...20

1990-91-1999-00...22

2000-01-2009-10...27

2010-11-2017-18...24

[gravitylover]

On 11/10/2018 at 2:45 AM, LibertyBell said:

Most of us are in the middle of a sneaky snowy streak, 30" or more of seasonal snowfall for 5 straight years.  Whats the record for that?  Islip has actually had 30" or more of seasonal snowfall now for 6 straight years.  The only one not streaking is BDR because I guess they didn't do so well in the historic Jan 2016 blizzard.  If it wasn't for that, they would have had  6 straight years of 30"+ seasonal snowfall too.

You didn't have to go too far from BDR to get over that 30" number for 15/16. The CT coast missed a few nickel and dime events that got those of us in the interior to a pretty reasonable total that winter.

[EasternLI]

On 11/10/2018 at 2:39 AM, LibertyBell said:

lol I hated 11-12 and 12-13, JFK received three quarters their average in 12-13, while Islip got almost 2x their average.  11-12 was bad everywhere.

And remember that the 00s decade was great for Long Island too!  Do you have Brookhaven/Upton snowfall numbers too, Chris? I bet they did even better than Islip did in both decades!

Here's the Upton snow numbers for all who may be interested:

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

[bluewave]

On November 10, 2018 at 2:39 AM, LibertyBell said:

lol I hated 11-12 and 12-13, JFK received three quarters their average in 12-13, while Islip got almost 2x their average.  11-12 was bad everywhere.

And remember that the 00s decade was great for Long Island too!  Do you have Brookhaven/Upton snowfall numbers too, Chris? I bet they did even better than Islip did in both decades!

ISP and BNL are very close for average snowfall during the 2010's. ISP is at 48.3 so far with BNL at 48.4. BNL averaged 36.6 from 99-00 to 08-09. For some reason, the ISP snowfall data is missing from 99-00 to 03-04. So I couldn't  compare the snowfall to BNL for that time period.

[Cfa]

This strange spike in snowfall amounts has been insane. As much as I loathe winter, it’s been interesting to observe such an abrupt climate shift.

And I guess it’s only a matter of time before more 2011-12 style winters begin to occur with greater frequency, I wonder if it’ll be as abrupt as this uptick in snowfall has been.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, Cfa said:

This strange spike in snowfall amounts has been insane. As much as I loathe winter, it’s been interesting to observe such an abrupt climate shift.

And I guess it’s only a matter of time before more 2011-12 style winters begin to occur with greater frequency, I wonder if it’ll be as abrupt as this uptick in snowfall has been.

The duration of this snowier regime may be determined by the speed of transition to a warmer state in the Arctic.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02992-9

Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather—including both cold spells and heavy snows—became more frequent in the eastern United States.

 

[weatherpruf]

7 hours ago, Cfa said:

This strange spike in snowfall amounts has been insane. As much as I loathe winter, it’s been interesting to observe such an abrupt climate shift.

And I guess it’s only a matter of time before more 2011-12 style winters begin to occur with greater frequency, I wonder if it’ll be as abrupt as this uptick in snowfall has been.

Could be the warmer climate shift. I've read the increased moisture is what might lead to these hyper snow storms, delivering to areas that were not snow meccas when I was a kid, places like Monmouth County.  

[weatherpruf]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The duration of this snowier regime may be determined by the speed of transition to a warmer state in the Arctic.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02992-9

Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather—including both cold spells and heavy snows—became more frequent in the eastern United States.

 

Excellent discussion.

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

ISP and BNL are very close for average snowfall during the 2010's. ISP is at 48.3 so far with BNL at 48.4. BNL averaged 36.6 from 99-00 to 08-09. For some reason, the ISP snowfall data is missing from 99-00 to 03-04. So I couldn't  compare the snowfall to BNL for that time period.

It's interesting how we have had a half decade of 30"+ snowfall seasons when in the 80s we had none.

Think the warm water offshore has something to do with it?  We see much higher snowfall rates than we used to.  Back in the 80s a 1" per hour snowfall rate was considered historic.

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Here's the Upton snow numbers for all who may be interested:

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

Wow for Upton thats 9 out of 10 winters with 3 feet (36") or more of snowfall.....and outside of the one year at 36" all the other ones are over 40"!

 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Gotta love this at 500

 

[Superstorm]

It's interesting how we have had a half decade of 30"+ snowfall seasons when in the 80s we had none.
Think the warm water offshore has something to do with it?  We see much higher snowfall rates than we used to.  Back in the 80s a 1" per hour snowfall rate was considered historic.

Growing up as a young kid in central New Jersey the 80s....ugh!!

Outside of April, 82 and Feb 83, not much to be said.


.

[NorthShoreWx]

On 11/11/2018 at 8:50 AM, bluewave said:

ISP and BNL are very close for average snowfall during the 2010's. ISP is at 48.3 so far with BNL at 48.4. BNL averaged 36.6 from 99-00 to 08-09. For some reason, the ISP snowfall data is missing from 99-00 to 03-04. So I couldn't  compare the snowfall to BNL for that time period.

That is also part of the reason ISP has shown the greatest departure from 1981 - 2010 norms; the base number was already lower than the actual average for that period.

[NorthShoreWx]

On 11/11/2018 at 8:50 AM, bluewave said:

ISP and BNL are very close for average snowfall during the 2010's. ISP is at 48.3 so far with BNL at 48.4. BNL averaged 36.6 from 99-00 to 08-09. For some reason, the ISP snowfall data is missing from 99-00 to 03-04. So I couldn't  compare the snowfall to BNL for that time period.

50.1" average here for that period (2010's starting 2009-2010):

60.1
60.8
4.5
46.0
68.0
67.0
38.2
41.6
65.1

41.8" average since 99-00

40.7" average since I started doing this in September 1995.

It's been quite a good run.  I thought it couldn't get better than the 00's.  5/9 years 60"+ since 2009.  If you only take the 4 worst years of the 2010's, that average was 32.6".  It's like 11-12 never happened. 

95-96 is still king by a lot (94.9")

It's all in the snow totals link in my sig.

 

 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That is also part of the reason ISP has shown the greatest departure from 1981 - 2010 norms; the base number was already lower than the actual average for that period.

While it's not a perfect method, I substituted the missing ISP data from 99-00 to 03-04 with the BNL numbers. This would give ISP a 81-10 average of 28.0 compared to the 24.8 that had missing dates. So this drops ISP from closer to 200% of normal to a still remarkable 173%.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/12/2018 at 10:30 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

That is also part of the reason ISP has shown the greatest departure from 1981 - 2010 norms; the base number was already lower than the actual average for that period.

Islip snowfall totals used to be perplexingly low for snowstorms.  Even as late as 2003-04.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/12/2018 at 11:30 AM, Superstorm said:

Growing up as a young kid in central New Jersey the 80s....ugh!!

Outside of April, 82 and Feb 83, not much to be said.


.

Amazing thing is no 30" snowfall winters or snowstorms 10" or more from after 1983 until 1993 lol