Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[beavis1729]

[Hoosier]

12z Euro did get snowier overall with the late week system, especially eastern OH north/eastward.

[IWXwx]

15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Will take a while to refine the details. Wouldn't take much colder air to result in more snow on the back side.

 

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Digging into the thermal profiles, it seems that the problem is less at 850 mb than from about 925 mb to the surface.  Granted we just don't have much cold air to work with, but there's a zone where 850's drop below 0C while 925 mb to the surface is above freezing, so the models are showing rain. The models could be right and the low level warmth is simply too much to overcome for much of a changeover, but imo that is more of a "fixable" issue than having to get below 0C 850 mb temps to materialize out of nowhere.

Hoosier's thermal optimism FTW.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

 

Hoosier's thermal optimism FTW.

lol I like that phrase

Don't want to give false hope, but just think it's possible that the changeover is undermodeled.  Just need relatively minor tweaks in the grand scheme.  Even if that is the case, accumulations could still be hurt by the relatively warm bl temps.

[snowlover2]

53 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

lol I like that phrase

Don't want to give false hope, but just think it's possible that the changeover is undermodeled.  Just need relatively minor tweaks in the grand scheme.  Even if that is the case, accumulations could still be hurt by the relatively warm bl temps.

FWIW the end of the 18z NAM. It does appear a little colder with 850's and 2m temps. Maybe a bit colder at 500mb too.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

FWIW the end of the 18z NAM. It does appear a little colder with 850's and 2m temps. Maybe a bit colder at 500mb too.

Flipping through that run, very noticeable how jumpy the NAM is with the surface low (due to all the convection in the Gulf) even though it eventually ends up in the general agreed upon area.  

[OHweather]

On 12/16/2018 at 2:35 PM, buckeye said:

This is the time of year I really get excited about getting some good snow....I hate green Christmas's.     I always look for patterns or trends to set in at the beginning of the season and one of the disturbing ones I've noticed is that storms seem to be warmer as they get closer in time.  We've had several decent looking LR snow events for the sub in which the snow sector begins to get smaller and the rain becomes more dominant as the timeframe shortens....(this weekend for instance), and now next weekend as well.

Hopefully this won't be a repeating theme.   Last couple of years the theme was strong storms in the long range turning into to weak sauce in the short range.

On another note I'm dubious about all of this SSWE talk.   I keep wondering why, if all the ingredients were already there for the winter forecasts to showcase a cold/snowy JFM, than why is everyone riding the SSWE like it's going to be a winter savior?..... I thought the winter was already saved by enso, indices, and analogs? 

 

In regards to the last point, a majority of my analogs had a SSWE or at least a significant disruption that in most cases resulted in a decent period of cold after.  Many of the analogs were rather mild for December.  A +ENSO, low solar, lingering -QBO in the lower strat all are going to favor a SSW being more likely than otherwise with all else being equal...so while it is an important piece to getting the anticipated shift to a blockier regime for the second half of the winter, outlooks that had a colder second half of winter in all likelihood banked on it occurring.   After a cold November and start of December we're getting a fairly prolonged mild pattern right now, which just feels odd and I think is causing both an increased level of panic and what seems like straw grasping by some as they point to a SSW to turn the winter around...but at the end of the day it was kind of expected to go like that, so it's more of a "be patient" than a "the ship is sinking, but oh look maybe a SSW might save us".  Whether it is just an "adequate" pattern for the eastern half of the US or a "holy sh*t!" pattern probably remains to be seen, though if we can get the tropics to align with the high latitudes in a few weeks it can certainly make turn towards the latter for later January and February. 

[michsnowfreak]

47 minutes ago, OHweather said:

In regards to the last point, a majority of my analogs had a SSWE or at least a significant disruption that in most cases resulted in a decent period of cold after.  Many of the analogs were rather mild for December.  A +ENSO, low solar, lingering -QBO in the lower strat all are going to favor a SSW being more likely than otherwise with all else being equal...so while it is an important piece to getting the anticipated shift to a blockier regime for the second half of the winter, outlooks that had a colder second half of winter in all likelihood banked on it occurring.   After a cold November and start of December we're getting a fairly prolonged mild pattern right now, which just feels odd and I think is causing both an increased level of panic and what seems like straw grasping by some as they point to a SSW to turn the winter around...but at the end of the day it was kind of expected to go like that, so it's more of a "be patient" than a "the ship is sinking, but oh look maybe a SSW might save us".  Whether it is just an "adequate" pattern for the eastern half of the US or a "holy sh*t!" pattern probably remains to be seen, though if we can get the tropics to align with the high latitudes in a few weeks it can certainly make turn towards the latter for later January and February. 

Obviously only time will tell what happens, But all of the usual panic seems to be very here and now based and it a does appear that things will look up in January and into February. 

[Malacka11]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Obviously only time will tell what happens, But all of the usual panic seems to be very here and now based and it a does appear that things will look up in January and into February. 

Sometimes us weenies need to remember that the usual models only extend two weeks out, which really isn't a whole lot if you consider the bigger picture, especially since a lot can change in two weeks of model runs. Even the torch on the 28th is over 200 hours out... correct me if I'm wrong, but if it were a blizzard that was being modeled ten days out, no one would buy into it, so no one should be overly worried about it being 60F+ in N IL/IN/OH either at this point in time yet either.  

[Stebo]

31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Obviously only time will tell what happens, But all of the usual panic seems to be very here and now based and it a does appear that things will look up in January and into February. 

I don't think this is usual panic. especially since no one is getting snow, even the north country. We need snow there else there is no real cold source and you end up with situations like later on this week where we get a spectacularly favorable track for heavy snow and end up with rain.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It's not looking good for a white Christmas, that's for sure, although Toronto is apparently bang on average for the season thus far. I was in Quebec City this past weekend, and they have a foot of snow on the ground.

Weatherbell's winter forecast isn't looking so good. They've been calling for a very cold eastern winter. To be fair, so have many other outlets.

[CoachLB]

[XfireLOW]

7 hours ago, Jonger said:

That torch on the 28th will wipe out everything but the deepest snow in the UP. Newberry will have grass on Jan 1st.

Worst snowmobile season ever.

I'm already looking into flying out to Colorado and renting mountain sleds.

That torch on the 28th actually looks like a chance for decent snow for me.  The pattern most here are dreading, I am looking forward to.  Haven't had a snowstorm at home since last January.

Jonger, after the combination of developing el nino and cold october and november for northern minnesota, the hallmark signals for a bad winter in northern mn.  I gave up hope around thanksgiving and booked my flight to Jackson Hole to go sledding for the third week of march.   

[buckeye]

Very different atmosphere in the MA forum winter thread.  Apparently the euro weeklies show a 09/10 snowmaggaedon Jan/Feb pattern, and JB is even calling it Jan/Feb 78esque....

That snowmaggaedon period between late Jan and mid Feb 2010 dumped something like 30" of snow here in cmh...so that wouldn't suck.

[Malacka11]

8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Very different atmosphere in the MA forum winter thread.  Apparently the euro weeklies show a 09/10 snowmaggaedon Jan/Feb pattern, and JB is even calling it Jan/Feb 78esque....

That snowmaggaedon period between late Jan and mid Feb 2010 dumped something like 30" of snow here in cmh...so that wouldn't suck.

Personally, I think the winter is just beginning. 

[Malacka11]

If anyone hasn't seen it yet, here's another reason why the NE forums are a bit happy right around now:

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Very different atmosphere in the MA forum winter thread.  Apparently the euro weeklies show a 09/10 snowmaggaedon Jan/Feb pattern, and JB is even calling it Jan/Feb 78esque....

That snowmaggaedon period between late Jan and mid Feb 2010 dumped something like 30" of snow here in cmh...so that wouldn't suck.

Winter not arriving until January in that region is pretty common so they probably figure what do they have to lose in December.  In our region Winter lasts a lot longer, so it's early start followed by a December absence is very irritating.  I have absolute 100% confidence that Winter is coming, that's not the issue. it's always silly to hear any kind of Winter cancel talk (which luckily in this forum we hear minimal, unlike some other forums). The problem is Winter is a long season here so even if it's a great January, February and March, we lost a month.  I don't buy this one storm or 1 stretch makes a season stuff that some on the East Coast do. I like a Winter for how it behaves the Winter as a whole.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Stebo said:

I don't think this is usual panic. especially since no one is getting snow, even the north country. We need snow there else there is no real cold source and you end up with situations like later on this week where we get a spectacularly favorable track for heavy snow and end up with rain.

The situation up North is even more dire than down here. Like I said in my above post there's no doubt that Winter is coming, the problem is with the North country having a snowless December that is a big Dent in the building of Winter snowpack. It can certainly be overcome but this is not the month that they want to lose up there. 

[Stebo]

On 12/17/2018 at 10:47 PM, michsnowfreak said:

The situation up North is even more dire than down here. Like I said in my above post there's no doubt that Winter is coming, the problem is with the North country having a snowless December that is a big Dent in the building of Winter snowpack. It can certainly be overcome but this is not the month that they want to lose up there. 

I think you are misunderstanding my post, we need them to have snow up north too else we won't have cold to work with no matter what the storm track is. That is a big ingredient to winter. hell there were times where we had decent storm track in 11-12 but had literally no cold air to work with. Not saying this winter is that winter but we need a cold source at some point.

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I think you are misunderstanding my post, we need them to have snow up north too else we won't have cold to work with no matter what the storm track is. That is a big ingredient to winter. hell there were times where we had decent storm track in 11-12 but had literally no cold air to work with. Not saying this winter is that winter but we need a cold source at some point.

I understand what you are saying and they will get snow up North. I think you kind of misunderstand my posting though also. It's a terrible look right now I just never get the comparisons to the warmest or most snowless Winter people can remember every time there's a bad pattern in place for a few weeks.  My reference as to how things are looking up is referring to the posts that many mets have been posting to in other suborums, and hinted at in this forum as well by Ricky and OHweather. Cold air seems to be on the way for January. Hell things could go sour with suppression, I just don't think a winter long torch is something we need to be worried about.

[Stebo]

On 12/17/2018 at 10:58 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I understand what you are saying and they will get snow up North. I think you kind of misunderstand my posting though also. It's a terrible look right now I just never get the comparisons to the warmest or most snowless Winter people can remember every time there's a bad pattern in place for a few weeks.  My reference as to how things are looking up is referring to the posts that many mets have been posting to in other suborums, and hinted at in this forum as well by Ricky and OHweather. Cold air seems to be on the way for January. Hell things could go sour with suppression, I just don't think a winter long torch is something we need to be worried about.

Things are looking up in the long range but at the beginning of Dec they were looking good for now, so I am not taking much stock in long range until it is in the medium range. And yeah we don't want this to flip on its head completely either else we will get jumped from stuff being warm to suppression and that would not be good either, though not unheard of in Ninos.

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I think you are misunderstanding my post, we need them to have snow up north too else we won't have cold to work with no matter what the storm track is. That is a big ingredient to winter. hell there were times where we had decent storm track in 11-12 but had literally no cold air to work with. Not saying this winter is that winter but we need a cold source at some point.

Getting snow up north first is important for our purposes -- you'd much rather have it than not -- but you seem to be making it out to be an absolute requirement unless I'm misunderstanding you.  I would disagree.  

[Stebo]

On 12/17/2018 at 11:09 PM, Hoosier said:

Getting snow up north first is important for our purposes -- you'd much rather have it than not -- but you seem to be making it out to be an absolute requirement unless I'm misunderstanding you.  I would disagree.  

Not absolute but it makes things much much much easier. Case in point this week, look at that storm track, if we had cold to work with it would be a huge hit for a large area.

[Hoosier]

Well the good news is that the upcoming pattern may lay down some snow up north.  So may have to suffer for a while but it could end up being for the greater good.

[Stebo]

On 12/17/2018 at 11:17 PM, Hoosier said:

Well the good news is that the upcoming pattern may lay down some snow up north.  So may have to suffer for a while but it could end up being for the greater good.

Yes that is a positive with the rain this week is that someone up north should get a bit of snow and then more beyond into early next week.

[Hoosier]

CRAS - Chronic Ridiculously Amplified Solutions

*pure entertainment value, don't take seriously*

[Roger Smith]

What's the thinking on outcomes for this storm on the 21st? I am seeing some potential for this to start mixing hard west of a north-south line through Detroit and turning to heavy wet snow for southern MI and western OH, eastern IN. Mixed precip near end of storm for sw ON and e OH. Or will it just stay 33-deg rain or sleet? There has been an eastward trend. If it flips to snow it could accumulate 8-15" probably too wet to blow around much, but it's a storm track similar to Nov 24-25 1950 and a weaker version of the 1978 blizzard without as much cold air around. High amplitude solutions usually result in memorable storms though. 

[chuckster2012]

This situation is quite similar to the big, unexpected Nov. 2-3 1966 snowstorm that moved from the Fla. panhandle due north up the west side of the apps. Temps. were very marginal and Louisville got 13" and the temp. stayed around 33°-34° the whole time. Temp profiles were probably a little different/colder, but interesting similarities at this point. I remember the forecast the day before called for rain, possibly ending as flurries...

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said:

This situation is quite similar to the big, unexpected Nov. 2-3 1966 snowstorm that moved from the Fla. panhandle due north up the west side of the apps. Temps. were very marginal and Louisville got 13" and the temp. stayed around 33°-34° the whole time. Temp profiles were probably a little different/colder, but interesting similarities at this point. I remember the forecast the day before called for rain, possibly ending as flurries...

That is not a terrible comparison at the surface and aloft.  The very big difference though is what you mentioned about the thermal profiles being colder, even though that was 7 weeks earlier in the season.

 

[chuckster2012]

Of course we don't yet know exactly what the temp. profiles for this storm will be 3-4 days from now. We only have projections.. But probably not as cold as 1966.