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Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion

snowlover2

By snowlover2,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, hlcater said:

One thing consistent on the deterministic GFS and the GEFS is that big dump of cold air as a result of the -EPO around Christmas.

7th straight day BN. It's not a warm pattern, just a boring pattern. I don't need or want mega cold(er) if there's no decent snow fall involved.

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

GEM with a nice little thread the needle event later this week.  It's highly unlikely, but sort of shows how close this system is to being something halfway decent for a limited area.  

24fio1x.jpg

Yeah, I've watched my local grid-cast icons steadily switch from a bunch of rain showers to more and more flakes. We're really not torching, so some snow could happen. December '02 (Bastardi's parallel season to this one) even featured a very nice snowstorm right on Christmas Day during the middle of that "pull-back"

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

GEM with a nice little thread the needle event later this week.  It's highly unlikely, but sort of shows how close this system is to being something halfway decent for a limited area.  

24fio1x.jpg

Phases with a northern stream disturbance.  That would be the way to get a snowier solution since the cutoff itself doesn't have cold enough thermal profiles.

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Significant northern stream interaction with time.  Looks plausible.  :guitar:

 

34 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That is an entirely possible solution especially in a gradient pattern like that shows.

 

I guess, large doesn't necessarily mean strong or heavy. But by comparison, we had a 992 mb SLP that didn't throw snow that far into the cold sector. Either way, wouldn't hear any complaints outta this guy if it verified :lmao: :snowman: :santa:

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

See the differences aloft at 96 hours? The GFS is much more cutoff while the GEM has more of a phased look.  There is not much support for a GEM type solution, at least among the major models, and the 00z UKMET that just came in does not support the GEM either.  While the GEM is not the most likely outcome, it shouldn't be discounted entirely given how models struggle to resolve these cutoff low setups.

gfs_z500_vort_us_17.thumb.png.adbbdf6538b5163f6034b99484719665.png

gem_z500_vort_us_17.thumb.png.56229bc27697b5bfee4519a978dbb84f.png

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slow poke

slow poke

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Always tough to know if you're talking about home in SEMI, or your place in the Northland? Just looked at the last five Dec 20-27th's here in Marshall. He's correct in saying the vast majority have sucked. Last year started with 4 warm days and bare ground by the 23rd, but another brown Christmas was avoided by the system snow that began on the 24th and peaked on Christmas Day. I measured snow all four days 24-27th and actually for an 11 day stretch every day featured at least some snow to measure. One of the better stretches of last season. Ofc, 2016 we started that period with a nice snow cover but were above freezing every day leading up to the torch-off on the 26th. '14 & '15 were dumpster fire bad. Even 2013 lost traction during that period. Some light snows kept Christmas from being totally brown, but we were down to piles again until the New Years storm. 

Both actually, I always take a ton of pictures during the holidays so I'll have to look back at them to refresh my memory. Last year was awesome, 2016 or 15, can't remember which one was also really good with the snow cover and a ice storm on top of it. Made for post card looking scenery. I do remember that year it rained and was a brown Christmas not to far to the south of us so maybe your area was brown that year. People need to remember that on average we only have a white Christmas about 50% of the time in this part of the country.  

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Especially since we celebrate Christmas on the 24th... I'd pay money for this to happen. 

We celebrate with one side of the family on the 24th and the other side on the 25th. I love both days but Christmas Eve has always been my favorite and our snowstorm last year on Christmas Eve was absolutely perfect. Everybody loved the atmosphere it created, except for the dicey travel. It was certainly not the biggest storm of the Winter, but 5" of fresh glistening powder that began falling around noon Christmas Eve until 11pm (more squalls Christmas day as a record cold blast was moved in) was not just a white Christmas. It was courier and ives perfection. To have that happen 2 years in a row would be a dream.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, slow poke said:

Both actually, I always take a ton of pictures during the holidays so I'll have to look back at them to refresh my memory. Last year was awesome, 2016 or 15, can't remember which one was also really good with the snow cover and a ice storm on top of it. Made for post card looking scenery. I do remember that year it rained and was a brown Christmas not to far to the south of us so maybe your area was brown that year. People need to remember that on average we only have a white Christmas about 50% of the time in this part of the country.  

Here is the last 10 christmases here. Which as you stated, by definition of white christmas (1"+ snowcover 7am christmas morning) is 50%. It was 60% christmas eve tho (see 2009).

2017- 5" of fresh powder christmas eve and another inch in squalls Christmas day

2016- very heavy 5" slushpack christmas eve dwindled to 3" christmas day. The melting of a deep mid-dec pack. It wasnt pretty but definitely white.

2015- bare 

2014- bare

2013- a fresh dusting christmas day atop frozen patches of snow. This was amusing because from early Dec to late Mar, Dec 24-25 were 2 of only 4 days (all in late dec) where grass was showing in this historic winter

2012- A fresh and rather unexpected inch of snow christmas eve evening was a treat in a mild Dec

2011- bare, but there was a dusting christmas eve morning which quickly melted

2010- 5" snowpack, old but still freshish

2009- 1" snowcover christmas eve was washed away with christmas day rain

2008- Foot snowpack on a rainy christmas eve froze into an 8" glacier christmas day

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ILwxchr

ILwxchr

Posted
Posted
On 12/10/2018 at 12:45 PM, hlcater said:

Yea that advertised pattern change can’t come soon enough. Out here in IA, I can’t remember the last time the first half of December was any good. Seem to always find our way into a bad pattern.

I'd argue that probably the last time was maybe December2009 or 2010? (I remember the big one in 09 very well). We had a couple good hits here in 2013 in Northwest Illinois...but yeah the last few Decembers have been pretty disappointing. 2016-17 we got our biggest snowfall of the winter on Dec 4th (6") and hardly anything the rest of the winter. I think that was the first January (2017) that we didn't record any snowfall, I remember Chicago setting a record. Hopefully we can go back to the days of 2010-11 or 2013-14....nothing super huge but enough to keep us on our toes and not bored.

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Malacka11

Malacka11

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

We celebrate with one side of the family on the 24th and the other side on the 25th. I love both days but Christmas Eve has always been my favorite and our snowstorm last year on Christmas Eve was absolutely perfect. Everybody loved the atmosphere it created, except for the dicey travel. It was certainly not the biggest storm of the Winter, but 5" of fresh glistening powder that began falling around noon Christmas Eve until 11pm (more squalls Christmas day as a record cold blast was moved in) was not just a white Christmas. It was courier and ives perfection. To have that happen 2 years in a row would be a dream.

My thoughts exactly. 

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Malacka11

Malacka11

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Man...EVERYONE....EVERY forecast....has Xmas thru spring training as Katy-bar-the-door-for-jo-mama's-winter-of-yore

and now the glide path to our incoming ice age gets a last minute lube job courtesy of our good ole friend the sswe.

What could possibly go wrong?

Nothing, hopefully /s

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted
Man...EVERYONE....EVERY forecast....has Xmas thru spring training as Katy-bar-the-door-for-jo-mama's-winter-of-yore
and now the glide path to our incoming ice age gets a last minute lube job courtesy of our good ole friend the sswe.
What could possibly go wrong?
My biggest worry out this way is something like 02-03, though for just east and southeast of here that was a good winter. I think the cold won't be hard to come by once the pattern changes. Hopefully it's more like most other weak Ninos with frequent light-moderate snows and we luck into a big event like GHD II.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
On 12/12/2018 at 1:36 AM, RCNYILWX said:

My biggest worry out this way is something like 02-03, though for just east and southeast of here that was a good winter. I think the cold won't be hard to come by once the pattern changes. Hopefully it's more like most other weak Ninos with frequent light-moderate snows and we luck into a big event like GHD II.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

02-03 :wub::wub::wub:

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ILwxchr

ILwxchr

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Stebo said:

02-03 :wub::wub::wub:

The only big storm I remember that winter here was the Valentines day storm. We got quite a bit of snow with that one. I think 03-04 was the worst winter aside from '11-12, hardly any snowfall in both winters. The '11-12 winter was especially terrible, the only thing that made it tolerable toward the end was an early severe season, but then the drought set in......

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zinski1990

zinski1990

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ILwxchr said:

The only big storm I remember that winter here was the Valentines day storm. We got quite a bit of snow with that one. I think 03-04 was the worst winter aside from '11-12, hardly any snowfall in both winters. The '11-12 winter was especially terrible, the only thing that made it tolerable toward the end was an early severe season, but then the drought set in......

worst winters I've seen here in my 28 years that I remember are 01-02 only remember indy had like 10 inches whole season with biggest snow being like 2 inches, a late season or late March small ice storm was probably my biggest memory of that year, 05-06 was bad but I remember December was cold with a good 7 inch snow on dec 8-9 January was torching, first day of spring in March we had a 5 incher, 2011-12 was terrible, 15-16 was also bad, and 16-17 may have been the worst Indy had only 8 or 9 inches that year. Last year was bad until the ultimate back loaded winter hit with the March 24 storm 

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Michigander

Michigander

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, buckeye said:

Man...EVERYONE....EVERY forecast....has Xmas thru spring training as Katy-bar-the-door-for-jo-mama's-winter-of-yore

and now the glide path to our incoming ice age gets a last minute lube job courtesy of our good ole friend the sswe.

What could possibly go wrong?

Everyone and EVERY FORECAST except CPC?

CFSv2.NaT2m.20181210.201901.gif

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