Stebo Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Haha another miss to the south by miles on the Euro, I am so EXCITED for this pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I'm sure somebody noticed this out in weenieland. The phase is impressive enough (and check out the 28 mb drop in one 12 hour time period) and how about an 80 mb pressure gradient with the surface high in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm sure somebody noticed this out in weenieland. The phase is impressive enough (and check out the 28 mb drop in one 12 hour time period) and how about an 80 mb pressure gradient with the surface high in the Plains. Miss to east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, chuckster2012 said: Miss to east.. With a little northwest trend, blizz of '78 redux? except the high sinking in is much stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 44 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm sure somebody noticed this out in weenieland. The phase is impressive enough (and check out the 28 mb drop in one 12 hour time period) and how about an 80 mb pressure gradient with the surface high in the Plains. That storm would crash the board lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 EPS still looks really good moving forward. Not many members suppressed next weekend like 12z Euro op run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I'm sure somebody noticed this out in weenieland. The phase is impressive enough (and check out the 28 mb drop in one 12 hour time period) and how about an 80 mb pressure gradient with the surface high in the Plains. Wow, that’s a classic phase, pulling down the PV. Obviously a solution like that is unlikely, but the chances of it happening are greater than normal due to extreme cold lurking in S Canada and an amplified pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: EPS still looks really good moving forward. Not many members suppressed next weekend like 12z Euro op run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk That's some good news. That is my worry about the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I'm sure somebody noticed this out in weenieland. The phase is impressive enough (and check out the 28 mb drop in one 12 hour time period) and how about an 80 mb pressure gradient with the surface high in the Plains. Either the system next weekend or this one will have a chance to be a blockbuster, all the pieces are there for it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Euro op looks like a southeast outlier. At 168 it has the low in Louisiana, but the eps has the majority of lows clustered in western TN. Pretty much everyone should be watching this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 That's some good news. That is my worry about the next system.The miss south risk is real for sure, but I like the possibility of getting a deeper system farther north at this vantage point. Going to be a really good thermal gradient to work with. Also, projected teles show a pretty close to neutral PNA around the time of the system. Look on the ensembles suggests that the fast Pacific flow could be of benefit to us in the PNA behaving like a RNA with Pac trough dumping into southwest and pumping heights east. At the same time, we'll have a big -EPO ridge and -AO but not a strongly -NAO (ensembles are showing neutral or weakly negative east based -NAO) that would force a bigger suppression risk. The good news too is that if we miss the first potential threat looks like we'll have at least a few more opportunities beyond that.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The UKMET with its own path compared to the other models. I don't buy the move so fast it goes off the east coast nonsense, this offers another choice. The 252-276 GFS is a triple phase, a rare event even for a long range model. I would store it in file as EPS and UKMET don't agree with the GFS at all in the super long range. yep u dont see that type of setup in long range models often. Looking very forward to watching this and next couple weeks evolve. Haven't seen a pattern shaping up like this in 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 52 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The miss south risk is real for sure, but I like the possibility of getting a deeper system farther north at this vantage point. Going to be a really good thermal gradient to work with. Also, projected teles show a pretty close to neutral PNA around the time of the system. Look on the ensembles suggests that the fast Pacific flow could be of benefit to us in the PNA behaving like a RNA with Pac trough dumping into southwest and pumping heights east. At the same time, we'll have a big -EPO ridge and -AO but not a strongly -NAO (ensembles are showing neutral or weakly negative east based -NAO) that would force a bigger suppression risk. The good news too is that if we miss the first potential threat looks like we'll have at least a few more opportunities beyond that. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk The east based -NAO is music to my ears. That is our wheel house for big storms. As long as the PNA doesn't go too positive, we should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I know it’s garbage time, but the 18z GFS puts down 6-12” across the sub forum next weekend, followed by sub zero temperatures. Now this, I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 It's been showing that too so could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 00z GFS is basically the same idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 One would think that the large area of heavy snow put down yesterday and today will have impact on future storm track. I know there will be melting down by I70 but they got a lot of snow to melt. We got areas nearing or exceeding a foot up by I74. Our temps here don't get above 35 this week so not a ton of melting should occur. This leaves a large sw to ne oriented baroclinic zone for next weeks system. Which the storm track on GFS looks remarkably similar to this idea. Just one model though. Would be awesome to see back to back major winter storms only a week apart. This system will have much more wind with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: One would think that the large area of heavy snow put down yesterday and today will have impact on future storm track. I know there will be melting down by I70 but they got a lot of snow to melt. We got areas nearing or exceeding a foot up by I74. Our temps here don't get above 35 this week so not a ton of melting should occur. This leaves a large sw to ne oriented baroclinic zone for next weeks system. Which the storm track on GFS looks remarkably similar to this idea. Just one model though. Would be awesome to see back to back major winter storms only a week apart. This system will have much more wind with it Getting pumped for the possibilities of next week's system. I think the snow pack laid down's actually a good thing so a stronger system doesn't pump too much warm air ahead of it like we've seen up until the current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Snow cover on top of snow cover. I thought the day would never come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I definitely pray to god that the FV3 doesn't verify beyond day 8. That is some of the coldest air I have ever seen for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, Stebo said: I definitely pray to god that the FV3 doesn't verify beyond day 8. That is some of the coldest air I have ever seen for this area. At least you get some "protection" from the lake. Good Lord. Multiple rounds. Keep in mind these are 18z maps, not lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: At least you get some "protection" from the lake. Good Lord. Multiple rounds. Keep in mind these are 18z maps, not lows. As absurd as it is here, daytime temps not hitting much above 20 for Mobile and New Orleans would be beyond comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I know its early but the Euro is putting out crazy numbers for next weekends storm...the one thing to take away is most models are signaling for something significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Central Illinois said: I know its early but the Euro is putting out crazy numbers for next weekends storm...the one thing to take away is most models are signaling for something significant Nice jump back north, it is also dialing up a doozy at the end of the run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 30 minutes ago, Stebo said: I definitely pray to god that the FV3 doesn't verify beyond day 8. That is some of the coldest air I have ever seen for this area. It’s been showing that for a couple days now. Yesterday what it showed would be approaching all time record wind chills in some states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Chicago congrats. This would be your second big storm of a el nino winter, impressive. Bastardi must be living in rage right now............ Chicago?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said: It’s been showing that for a couple days now. Yesterday what it showed would be approaching all time record wind chills in some states. Yeah, lets hope it doesn't come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 34 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah, lets hope it doesn't come to fruition. Not gonna lie, id love to experience it...but since moving I no longer have a pws here in MI which would really suck to not collect the data! Anyway I thought i was gonna be in Gwinn this weekend, but I messed up and its next weekend. If this verifies then I dont even know what to do lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Getting pumped for the possibilities of next week's system. I think the snow pack laid down's actually a good thing so a stronger system doesn't pump too much warm air ahead of it like we've seen up until the current system. Me too. It really stung to miss this event, even though I expected to miss it all along. In no way am I implying that every event must hit here lol, I think it's because we were stuck in such a mild benign weather pattern since the beginning of December, it seemed unfair that areas to the South would score as soon as the pattern turned colder while here in Southern Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc we are high dry and bare ground. Those areas were definitely more due than us from recent years, but the start to this Winter after a nice November has been brutal. That said I am really loving the storm signals for next weekend. The consistency on the models has been something. I can't recall if models still lose things on day 5 and then bring them back, guess we will find out later today and tomorrow lol but to be honest I'm more worried about missing to the South than having too much warm air pumped up with this one. Some of the scenarios with this one would be quite a Winter storm. Huge temperature drop during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Chicago congrats. This would be your second big storm of a el nino winter, impressive. Bastardi must be living in rage right now............For the small amount that it’s worth, some of us in LOT had our first snow that covered the lawn completely yesterday. I’ll take another snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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