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Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowlover2
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3 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

I go back to the Easternwx days....no earlier....but i was fortunate enough to enjoy the DT eruptions {thinner skin than Trump), Ji winter cancels and the endless JB bashing. Great fun.

I have the high honor of being the topic of DT's first blog on easternuswx.   It was entitled "why I hate buckeye", (except the b was replaced with an f)

:lol:

Ok, back to weather.   Interesting that the 46 day snow mean on the eps has the greatest snowfall through Chicago and Michigan....while totally screwing the MA.   You would think with the upper air pattern it's advertising, Chicago would be a tundra and the MA weenies would be digging themselves out of feet of snow.

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55 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I have the high honor of being the topic of DT's first blog on easternuswx.   It was entitled "why I hate buckeye", (except the b was replaced with an f)

:lol:

Ok, back to weather.   Interesting that the 46 day snow mean on the eps has the greatest snowfall through Chicago and Michigan....while totally screwing the MA.   You would think with the upper air pattern it's advertising, Chicago would be a tundra and the MA weenies would be digging themselves out of feet of snow.

I remember those days of DT hating on you! That’s when I was on the east coast, home of the big snowstorms. See, you knew it wouldn’t be that long before I mentioned living back east. LOL

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

I have the high honor of being the topic of DT's first blog on easternuswx.   It was entitled "why I hate buckeye", (except the b was replaced with an f)

:lol:

Ok, back to weather.   Interesting that the 46 day snow mean on the eps has the greatest snowfall through Chicago and Michigan....while totally screwing the MA.   You would think with the upper air pattern it's advertising, Chicago would be a tundra and the MA weenies would be digging themselves out of feet of snow.

lol I remember him doing that blog post.  What precipitated that anyway?  Was it the infamous big dog map that you did?

As far as long range, I've never been into it as much as shorter range stuff.  We definitely lack the long range discussions on our side, which is a bit unfortunate.  

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2 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

DT is probably the only person on these forums that I have never had any respect for. I've been around since the 1990s on twc and iirc with weathafella, and I've had plenty people I didn't get along with, notably Naso. But I at least felt sympathy for Naso. DT on the other hand - I just have absolutely no room in my life for people that angry and mean spirited.

DT was at the conference in 2006.  I remember you being there in 2006 or 2007 (or maybe both?)  DT is a total ass on the forums but was much different in person.  I don't know why he couldn't be more civil online.

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I'm cracking up reading these "memories"  Iluvsnow is the one that introduced me to Easternwx back in the day.

I mostly read your posts during the Winter season, and I rarely post myself.  I've witnessed some epic meltdowns, and I've enjoyed some great snowstorm threads.

 

 

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1 minute ago, (((Will))) said:

The way I took it was that he just didn't have the courage to be himself in person.

That's what I like about our subforum. Since I joined it ten months ago, I haven't seen a single person treat another with downright disrespect here. Sure there are disagreements here and there, but nothing noteworthy, like, ever. Or maybe I'm just naive/inexperienced lol

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4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

That's what I like about our subforum. Since I joined it ten months ago, I haven't seen a single person treat another with downright disrespect here. Sure there are disagreements here and there, but nothing noteworthy, like, ever. Or maybe I'm just naive/inexperienced lol

You’re naive dumbass!!! 

JK!!! I couldn’t resist. You laid it up for me. Figured I’d play DT for a second. LOL

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Just now, (((Will))) said:

DT acted like an angry drunk 100% of the time yet still had relevancy because he was a meteorologist. He also didn't hesitate to cuss out kids under 12 that were just excited about snow.

 

His relevancy made it worse because they couldn't just ban him.

Dang. That sucks even more because a person in his position has so much ability to be a positive influence on a weather forum lol

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3 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

DT acted like an angry drunk 100% of the time yet still had relevancy because he was a meteorologist. He also didn't hesitate to cuss out kids under 12 that were just excited about snow.

 

His relevancy made it worse because they couldn't just ban him.

Respect him as a meteorologist, but a true jerk as a human being! 

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10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Wow lol would he actually say things like that?

 

9 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Worse

 

7 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

He's still giving beat downs on FB.

I liked his wxrisk site info/blog back before social media let the cat outta the bag about his dark side. Since that revelation, he's entertaining if you can look past his crassness and see his rants almost like a comedy film actor.

My all-time favorite DT description

 

DT review.PNG

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8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

 

 

I liked his wxrisk site info/blog back before social media let the cat outta the bag about his dark side. Since that revelation, he's entertaining if you can look past his crassness and see his rants almost like a comedy film actor.

My all-time favorite DT description

 

DT review.PNG

:lol:

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

lol I remember him doing that blog post.  What precipitated that anyway?  Was it the infamous big dog map that you did?

As far as long range, I've never been into it as much as shorter range stuff.  We definitely lack the long range discussions on our side, which is a bit unfortunate.  

That big dog map was just satire and he took it so personally.  He flipped out and then sent me messages insinuating that he knew where I lived.    Lol...for such a hot head he had some pretty thin skin.

Our forum had some rocky times a few years back, but calmed down a lot after Alek disappeared.  

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On 1/7/2019 at 9:31 PM, Hoosier said:

DT was at the conference in 2006.  I remember you being there in 2006 or 2007 (or maybe both?)  DT is a total ass on the forums but was much different in person.  I don't know why he couldn't be more civil online.

I can attest to this view as well as he was at the 2014 conference as well and not only was he very much subdued compared to online persona but he was a wealth of knowledge.

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Because this winter has very closely followed the progression of 2006-07 thus far, my hope is that continues since February 07 was a good month. I'd imagine thoughts on the forums back then were similar about what a terrible winter that was until then and losing hope that it would improve.

It's very easy to lean on persistence when it's been bad for so long and assume that improvements in the extended range will never come to fruition. It's been a frustrating winter thus far, but ultimately I think it makes sense in hindsight that the significant pattern change that occurred in December to fast Pacific flow/predominantly +EPO has taken longer to erode than expected.

Changes are occurring, the AO has finally gone negative and looks to stay negative as effects of the SSW increase in the troposphere. The western ridge will roll over next week and bring another mild up, but hopefully the end of the 00z Euro op was sniffing out this being more brief.

There is very good consensus from the long range pros I'm reading that the strong agreement in -EPO/-AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern shown in long range on ensembles is likely to unfold this time. Will not hold any illusions that it means a snowy pattern because it can certainly be a cold and dry look for at least some of us, but I'd gamble with cold since we've had essentially none for a month. Hopefully we at least get into a clipper pattern and some opportunities at IL side and extreme NW Indiana LES.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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I've been involved in putting together the local winter outlooks for LOT since winter 2010-11, but the learning never stops. Just from reading knowledgeable LR posters on this sub, some on New England sub (Coastal and ORH to name a few) and Isotherm, Don S etc, I've learned a ton the past few years about LR forecasting. If I may do some cross forum promoting, the technical threads (teleconnections and strat forecasting) on 33andrain.com have some excellent material, though some of it is way over my head still. Our own OHweather has started making some posts over at 33andrain. Definitely worth a read.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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18 hours ago, buckeye said:

It sucks that the only long range met discussions that go on this site are mostly in the MA and NE forums.    We have very little discussion about long range, weeklies, etc.    So I go over to their discussions to see if I can extrapolate what might happen here from what the buzz is over there.

I do the same lol.

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