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Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowlover2
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Looking very quiet through at least the 17-18th.  Unless late Jan and Feb comes in hot it's looking like the met winter will be a huge bust for most of the sub.  March/April snows can be fun, but they're very fleeting.  Here today, gone tomorrow kind a thing.  If the futile pattern continues I'm almost going to root that it lasts through at least the 26th of this month, as that would make it a solid 2 months with <1" snow total lol.   

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It appears that the cold will come later this month and hopefully decent snow chances too outside of the belts.  I'm a bit concerned about a northwest flow/clipper dominant pattern, which is not the greatest unless you're ok with building snow gradually.  

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It appears that the cold will come later this month and hopefully decent snow chances too outside of the belts.  I'm a bit concerned about a northwest flow/clipper dominant pattern, which is not the greatest unless you're ok with building snow gradually.  

 With a horrendous 1st half of met Winter, I would take that in a heartbeat.

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6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looking very quiet through at least the 17-18th.  Unless late Jan and Feb comes in hot it's looking like the met winter will be a huge bust for most of the sub.  March/April snows can be fun, but they're very fleeting.  Here today, gone tomorrow kind a thing.  If the futile pattern continues I'm almost going to root that it lasts through at least the 26th of this month, as that would make it a solid 2 months with <1" snow total lol.   

I'd be pretty pissed if we got a bunch of snow in March and April. We have had a useless spring season for a couple years now.

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15 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I still think next weekend has some potential to drop at least a few inches somewhere. At least, I don't want to rule it out entirely yet.

Seems there might be something next Wednesday. Both 12z Euro and 12z FV3 both showed a system across the south bring snow as far north as the OH River some sig accumulations in AR/MO. 18z GFS showing a more phased solution getting sig accumulations into southern OH.

gfs_asnow_ncus_32.png

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48 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Seems there might be something next Wednesday. Both 12z Euro and 12z FV3 both showed a system across the south bring snow as far north as the OH River some sig accumulations in AR/MO. 18z GFS showing a more phased solution getting sig accumulations into southern OH.

Don't trust it.  Every 12 hours these models are showing something different.  They are grasping at the timing as the only cold air around is at night.  Have a storm pass after 11am and its rain.  Have a storm pass after 9pm it's snow.   The LL temps are oscillating in that 25 to 35 range daily.  Just shows what happens when the Pacific takes a leak on our jet streams.   If it pans out I will definitely be de- suppressed lol.

 

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55 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Seems there might be something next Wednesday. Both 12z Euro and 12z FV3 both showed a system across the south bring snow as far north as the OH River some sig accumulations in AR/MO. 18z GFS showing a more phased solution getting sig accumulations into southern OH.

gfs_asnow_ncus_32.png

Meh, I'd be surprised it trended stronger or more phased.   The 18z gefs is much less impressed then the op.    I think this is the gfs doing its usual appear...dissappear...re-appear games before it finally deep sixes it.

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Meh, I'd be surprised it trended stronger or more phased.   The 18z gefs is much less impressed then the op.    I think this is the gfs doing its usual appear...dissappear...re-appear games before it finally deep sixes it.

At least it's back! So frustrating when a storm goes poof-ta as though it was never there.

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Meh, I'd be surprised it trended stronger or more phased.   The 18z gefs is much less impressed then the op.    I think this is the gfs doing its usual appear...dissappear...re-appear games before it finally deep sixes it.

12z Euro members have some decents hitters so there is some support.

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59 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z Euro members have some decents hitters so there is some support.

Looked to me like about 9 members out of 50 show a light to moderate hit, only 1 or 2 show something more significant.  Vast majority ,show nothing.

Who knows though, maybe the gfs is going to be the first to trend better.   But it's hard to get enthused when the euro is not seeing it 6 days out.

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18 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Looked to me like about 9 members out of 50 show a light to moderate hit, only 1 or 2 show something more significant.  Vast majority ,show nothing.

Who knows though, maybe the gfs is going to be the first to trend better.   But it's hard to get enthused when the euro is not seeing it 6 days out.

12z Euro did have it but it was weak and precip was along/south of the OH River.

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For what it's worth (beats me what it's worth, do I look like someone with any idea what they're talking about?) a fair number of GEFS ensembles have some lighter snow spread through the area next weekend. It might not be the massive game-changing snowstorm some of us are looking for, but I'd take it.

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It sucks that the only long range met discussions that go on this site are mostly in the MA and NE forums.    We have very little discussion about long range, weeklies, etc.    So I go over to their discussions to see if I can extrapolate what might happen here from what the buzz is over there.

Well, fwiw to our back yard, according to the MA and NE mets, once again the weeklies are even more epic than the ones last week, which were more epic than the ones a week before that, which were more epic than the week before that....and yes more epic than....well you get the idea.

...and yet through it all the MA and NE have an even greater snowfall futility to date than many of us....which in istself is an amazing feat.  

I'm assuming that the deafening quiet on our forum is an unsettling reality that the trough axis is probably forecasted, (in this upcoming 'epic' period), to be too far east for us to get anything much more than a good cirrus smoking during the seemingly inevitable parade of KU's, HECS's, and BEC's that the eastern weenies are being told to strap themselves in for.     

oh well, cue pondo's, I-should-have-never-left-philly-rant , in....3...2...1...:P

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25 minutes ago, buckeye said:

It sucks that the only long range met discussions that go on this site are mostly in the MA and NE forums.    We have very little discussion about long range, weeklies, etc.    So I go over to their discussions to see if I can extrapolate what might happen here from what the buzz is over there.

Well, fwiw to our back yard, according to the MA and NE mets, once again the weeklies are even more epic than the ones last week, which were more epic than the ones a week before that, which were more epic than the week before that....and yes more epic than....well you get the idea.

...and yet through it all the MA and NE have an even greater snowfall futility to date than many of us....which in istself is an amazing feat.  

I'm assuming that the deafening quiet on our forum is an unsettling reality that the trough axis is probably forecasted, (in this upcoming 'epic' period), to be too far east for us to get anything much more than a good cirrus smoking during the seemingly inevitable parade of KU's, HECS's, and BEC's that the eastern weenies are being told to strap themselves in for.     

oh well, cue pondo's, I-should-have-never-left-philly-rant , in....3...2...1...:P

LMAO!!! I’ll refrain....this time! 

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17 minutes ago, buckeye said:

It sucks that the only long range met discussions that go on this site are mostly in the MA and NE forums.    We have very little discussion about long range, weeklies, etc.    So I go over to their discussions to see if I can extrapolate what might happen here from what the buzz is over there.

Well, fwiw to our back yard, according to the MA and NE mets, once again the weeklies are even more epic than the ones last week, which were more epic than the ones a week before that, which were more epic than the week before that....and yes more epic than....well you get the idea.

...and yet through it all the MA and NE have an even greater snowfall futility to date than many of us....which in istself is an amazing feat.  

I'm assuming that the deafening quiet on our forum is an unsettling reality that the trough axis is probably forecasted, (in this upcoming 'epic' period), to be too far east for us to get anything much more than a good cirrus smoking during the seemingly inevitable parade of KU's, HECS's, and BEC's that the eastern weenies are being told to strap themselves in for.     

oh well, cue pondo's, I-should-have-never-left-philly-rant , in....3...2...1...:P

Great weenies think alike. My winter weather lustiness has been spent on the Mid Atlantic forum as well. So much so that I have developed a kindred spirit with the likes of Ji, Bob Chill and Yoda. Sad! We Lakes/OV crew must have other diversions when these putrid patterns persist. Over there...they treat every run like its the Lotto numbers being televised on Saturday night...even though there is no winter weather in sight. Dozens of pages a week on long term threads that yield nothing but broken hearts. Here.....virtually nothing. If winter does deliver later this month....the gods may well bless the M. Atlantic...and thumb her nose at us. After all we have other things in our lives....at least those who don't spend their dreams in the Mid Atlantic with Ji.

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4 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Great weenies think alike. My winter weather lustiness has been spent on the Mid Atlantic forum as well. So much so that I have developed a kindred spirit with the likes of Ji, Bob Chill and Yoda. Sad! We Lakes/OV crew must have other diversions when these putrid patterns persist. Over there...they treat every run like its the Lotto numbers being televised on Saturday night...even though there is no winter weather in sight. Dozens of pages a week on long term threads that yield nothing but broken hearts. Here.....virtually nothing. If winter does deliver later this month....the gods may well bless the M. Atlantic...and thumb her nose at us. After all we have other things in our lives....at least those who don't spend their dreams in the Mid Atlantic with Ji.

Not sure how long you've been on these boards but I consider myself an 'Elder' lol.   I go back to pre-wrightweather, (I'm talking like compu-serve TWC forum), which was pre-easternuswx, which was before americanweather.    Ji was around back then, (shout out to Hoosier too), we're talking like 20 years ago and there were no regional forums.  You can imagine what it was like when a storm was coming and we were all fighting over which way it was going to track.   DT, LC, HM, all were regular posters.   It was a crazy sh*t show but it was also a lot of fun.  I actually miss bantering with a lot of those guys, (Ji, weatherfella, and so many others that have now vanished to their own regional corners).   Ji cracks me up with some of his sarcastic posts.  

But yes, back to current times.  It's amazing the time, thought, and analysis some of those guys put into posting.   Sometimes I wonder if they have jobs and responsibilties....   :lol:

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On 1/7/2019 at 7:00 PM, buckeye said:

It sucks that the only long range met discussions that go on this site are mostly in the MA and NE forums.    We have very little discussion about long range, weeklies, etc.    So I go over to their discussions to see if I can extrapolate what might happen here from what the buzz is over there.

Well, fwiw to our back yard, according to the MA and NE mets, once again the weeklies are even more epic than the ones last week, which were more epic than the ones a week before that, which were more epic than the week before that....and yes more epic than....well you get the idea.

...and yet through it all the MA and NE have an even greater snowfall futility to date than many of us....which in istself is an amazing feat.  

I'm assuming that the deafening quiet on our forum is an unsettling reality that the trough axis is probably forecasted, (in this upcoming 'epic' period), to be too far east for us to get anything much more than a good cirrus smoking during the seemingly inevitable parade of KU's, HECS's, and BEC's that the eastern weenies are being told to strap themselves in for.     

oh well, cue pondo's, I-should-have-never-left-philly-rant , in....3...2...1...:P

Part of the reason why I personally don't like doing long range discussions is that the weeklies have such bad verification scores that it is basically throwing a dart at a dartboard. I mean look at this winter for example, how many times have we heard the weeklies look great after x day or y week? I just don't think it is worth having discussion when it rarely verifies.

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