chuckster2012 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Yeah, .3" for me. It will verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Euro is farther north with the energy that ejects late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 29, 2018 Author Share Posted December 29, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Euro is farther north with the energy that ejects late week. Been looking more interesting over the last couple of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 I think it's going to be one of those winters. Usually weak Ninos are Upstates best snowfall years. A bad pacific can ruin what is normally a good year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 If this tendency to pop a ridge in the east could persist through May, that would be fantastic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1 minute ago, hlcater said: If this tendency to pop a ridge in the east could persist through May, that would be fantastic. Already planning chasecation again for May looking at the first full week in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Already planning chasecation again for May looking at the first full week in the month. That's dicey. If you get a good pattern, it could pay off bigger than it would in late May. But if you get a bad pattern, you're essentially shut out. Though I guess it worked out for you this year. Just a higher risk factor earlier in the month as variability is far higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 35 minutes ago, Stebo said: Already planning chasecation again for May looking at the first full week in the month. Are there any correlations with lingering/late fading Ninos and severe activity, especially in the Plains? We could have that situation in 2019. Of course you can still get a good system/stretch in any year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 57 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think it's going to be one of those winters. Usually weak Ninos are Upstates best snowfall years. A bad pacific can ruin what is normally a good year. Have to admit it's not looking very promising for southern Ontario outside of the snowbelts either. A real disappointment given so many of the forecasts for calling for a big winter, and it had looked hopeful with the cold Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 12z GFS showing an interesting ice/snow rain storm for Chi town IL and IN for Monday Jan. 7th. We'll see if it holds. Not that I want an ice storm. PAH is already scheduling spotter talks in their CWA for spring tornado season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1 hour ago, hlcater said: That's dicey. If you get a good pattern, it could pay off bigger than it would in late May. But if you get a bad pattern, you're essentially shut out. Though I guess it worked out for you this year. Just a higher risk factor earlier in the month as variability is far higher. I need to use the time before May 15th, that is my roll over date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 30 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Are there any correlations with lingering/late fading Ninos and severe activity, especially in the Plains? We could have that situation in 2019. Of course you can still get a good system/stretch in any year. There are some bad years some good years, it's all over the place especially in a weak to mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 I took over a week off in 2017 in May and didn't have a single chase lol. Hopefully your luck isn't as bad as mine was. I'm thinking about trying it out again this upcoming season, but this time it will be two weeks and sometime in June. Hopefully can get some high-plains photogenic sups. The kind that grind along at like 15mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 27 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I took over a week off in 2017 in May and didn't have a single chase lol. Hopefully your luck isn't as bad as mine was. I'm thinking about trying it out again this upcoming season, but this time it will be two weeks and sometime in June. Hopefully can get some high-plains photogenic sups. The kind that grind along at like 15mph. Can never go wrong with the first 2 weeks of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Im going to the keewenaw 2nd week of Feb...can't go wrong that time of year for deep snow! My birthday is 2nd week of May and i dont recall much severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 -This winter is going so bad.... - how bad,is it??? - stebo and the gang are discussing spring chases in the long range winter thread! Seriously, the long range models really crapped the bed. Even JB is admittedly rattled and beginning to second guess things.....and he usually never waivers. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 During the November blizzard, I discovered that the tractor I use for the snowblower needs about $1k of work in order to run the blower. I have no idea if I should take it in to the shop or not.....especially since this is my last winter up north and I am unlikely to ever use the blower again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 hour ago, buckeye said: -This winter is going so bad.... - how bad,is it??? - stebo and the gang are discussing spring chases in the long range winter thread! Seriously, the long range models really crapped the bed. Even JB is admittedly rattled and beginning to second guess things.....and he usually never waivers. Don’t worry buckeye he’s using the strat warming event as his escape door for 2002-2003 analog not working out. He’s busting out the ole trusty January 1985 analog now on Twitter it’s almost comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 hour ago, buckeye said: -This winter is going so bad.... - how bad,is it??? - stebo and the gang are discussing spring chases in the long range winter thread! Seriously, the long range models really crapped the bed. Even JB is admittedly rattled and beginning to second guess things.....and he usually never waivers. The long range models have really been badd, all over the place every which way, but I thought JB was talking about things outside of long range window. Edit. I do not follow JB, but i googled his Twitter. Hes going on about a warm spell we had at this time in 1984 when a strat warming was going on, and how cold later in January 1985 was. I don't see any wavering from him on his Twitter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 4:40 PM, iluvsnow said: Mother nature observed all of the prognosticators bellowing an epic winter for the east. She listened to the hype all November into early December. Then she said....I have other plans. Then as December came and went with only a whimper...the forecasters cried....the hounds of winter will come calling mid January. Mom nature may have other plans. The new replacement GFS operational for mid January...as of noon 12/28.....man that's one ugly Pacific..... That's a beautiful solution, not ugly! 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: Well, it's been nice knowing you. That exact phrase came to mind lol. Not that I disagree though, but I'd bet only a nickel. 3 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Have to admit it's not looking very promising for southern Ontario outside of the snowbelts either. A real disappointment given so many of the forecasts for calling for a big winter, and it had looked hopeful with the cold Fall. I'm in one of the snowbelts and there has been absolutely nothing of note this winter or fall. I can't speak for the areas further north but probably average non-dramatic LES. Every winter is a snoozefest here since 2015, zero redeeming factors to this loathsome season. Looking hard enough for something to point out, I have never seen a rapid cycle rollercoaster like this from freeze to thaw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The long range models have really been badd, all over the place every which way, but I thought JB was talking about things outside of long range window. Edit. I do not follow JB, but i googled his Twitter. Hes going on about a warm spell we had at this time in 1984 when a strat warming was going on, and how cold later in January 1985 was. I don't see any wavering from him on his Twitter lol. Have they been bad? We haven't had much fantasy storm action all winter, and that has verified thus far in real storm action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 50 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The long range models have really been badd, all over the place every which way, but I thought JB was talking about things outside of long range window. Edit. I do not follow JB, but i googled his Twitter. Hes going on about a warm spell we had at this time in 1984 when a strat warming was going on, and how cold later in January 1985 was. I don't see any wavering from him on his Twitter lol. December 1984 actually did have an almost identical temperature profile to this December in Toronto. I can't see it getting as cold as January 1985 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Following fantasy intensely is setting yourself up to be let down all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think it's going to be one of those winters. Usually weak Ninos are Upstates best snowfall years. A bad pacific can ruin what is normally a good year. Have my doubts we'll meet average snowfall by season's end, let alone even reaching a double-digit total. DAY's last single-digit snowfall season was 2016-2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Well in *theory* a +3 or 4 degree departure from average, in January, in Wisconsin, is still cold enough to snow...in *theory.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 GEM does something with the late week system. Even if that system produces snow for somebody, it's kind of useless if you're a fan of snowpack because of the warm up right on the heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: Euro is farther north with the energy that ejects late week. The plot thickens. 0z GFS is much better at 500mb but phases a little too late for any precip in the south sub. 0z GGEM however has an earlier phase and a nice snowstorm of 4-8" especially NW of I-71 in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: GEM does something with the late week system. Even if that system produces snow for somebody, it's kind of useless if you're a fan of snowpack because of the warm up right on the heels. I think at this point all of us would enjoy seeing snow fall and stick....period....regardless of staying power. I mean seriously, after a complete December shutout whose gonna whine about snowpack duration? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Unless it has staying potential, I'll pass on this one locally. Just take this storm to the northwoods. I'll manage with no snow all winter in SE Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The UKMET looks like crap until about January 10th(at least). Really, it has been a bigger sourpuss than the ECMWF this winter. I almost wish the United Kingdom would collapse so it wouldn't be able to run anymore. At least the GFS has a nice fantasy to indulge in every once in awhile. It'd probably be easier to just not look at the UKMET anymore? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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