Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Next system of interest after the Thu-Fri rainer could be the big system consistently showing up on the models around New Years.  GFS/FV3 have both been pretty consistent in showing a big storm around that time, and now the op Euro has it as well.  It's looking like it won't cut as far northwest as the Thu-Fri system, so more of the sub has a shot at getting some decent snows if trends continue.  

And those of us east really, really need that to stem the weenie melt-down watches

[Frog Town]

Alright!  Is this what we all have been waiting for so "patiently"??

From:

000
FXUS63 KIWX 261120
AFDIWX

A sudden stratospheric warming event began over the north pole
region this week and this often sends a delayed arctic intrusion
plunging into the mid latitudes. 00z models seem to be picking up on
this with a dramatic shift to a possible arctic intrusion in
the day 7-10 period. 00z long term models have all come in very cold
for day 7 and beyond with general differences in strength and timing
of this cold air intrusion. Signal is there in most guidance and
blends with highs on New Years day or just after likely only in the
lower to middle 20s, possibly colder depending on timing. Could be a
decent lake response given increased instability but low to mid
chance pops in lake favored areas for now. Will also have to watch
closely energy ejecting out of southern jet stream. At this time,
this energy moves east just ahead of northern stream arctic
front. However, faster and more northward ejection of this feature
and its associated moisture could lend to more phasing and possible
storm system with this arctic front. Will be watching closely.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

Alright!  Is this what we all have been waiting for so "patiently"??

From:

000
FXUS63 KIWX 261120
AFDIWX

A sudden stratospheric warming event began over the north pole
region this week and this often sends a delayed arctic intrusion
plunging into the mid latitudes. 00z models seem to be picking up on
this with a dramatic shift to a possible arctic intrusion in
the day 7-10 period. 00z long term models have all come in very cold
for day 7 and beyond with general differences in strength and timing
of this cold air intrusion. Signal is there in most guidance and
blends with highs on New Years day or just after likely only in the
lower to middle 20s, possibly colder depending on timing. Could be a
decent lake response given increased instability but low to mid
chance pops in lake favored areas for now. Will also have to watch
closely energy ejecting out of southern jet stream. At this time,
this energy moves east just ahead of northern stream arctic
front. However, faster and more northward ejection of this feature
and its associated moisture could lend to more phasing and possible
storm system with this arctic front. Will be watching closely.

 

Well good thing it is happening now so the effects will be wearing off by chase season. Last winter's SSW came in I believe February which was just in time to bollox up spring but good.

[IWXwx]

This morning's GFS says lol to a lasting cold air dump, with Pacific air flooding in and telling the arctic air mass to move along. But hey, we might get something as it rolls through as IWX alluded to and also get a couple of days of Beavis weather.

The 12Z Euro agrees at the end of it's run and it depicts 850's not as cold as the GFS. However, it appears to be primed to send some reinforcements from Canada just after day 10. 

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

This morning's GFS says lol to a lasting cold air dump, with Pacific air flooding in and telling the arctic air mass to move along. But hey, we might get something as it rolls through as IWX alluded to and also get a couple of days of Beavis weather.

The 12Z Euro agrees at the end of it's run and it depicts 850's not as cold as the GFS. However, it appears to be primed to send some reinforcements from Canada just after day 10. 

I wouldn't want the previous runs from yesterday with respect to GFS. Went from warm and dry to cold and dry outside of the lake belts. Haven't had a chance to check today's runs yet though.

[buckeye]

6 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

15-20 days post ssw is usually the lag time. I would say probably more around the 10th, something more snowy and permanently colder comes into focus. I suspect the models will weaken cold shots as they get closer which is the MO of this winter.........this trend will last until the ssw triggers winter in the east and a legit pattern change that will last 2-4 weeks. Wouldn't be surprised that February doesn't have a Strat cooling, which is good for a warm march.

from your keyboard to God's ears....especially the warm March thing

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

from your keyboard to God's ears....especially the warm March thing

After having no spring this year, I would love a prolonged spring.

[DAFF]

We need to see a prolonged winter pattern before we usher thoughts of spring.

[buckeye]

5 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Go away.

Can't even imagine moving to a location based solely on lake effect snow and then seeing that latest gfs run.  You're bitterness is both justified and forgiven.

[cyclone77]

Now that the New Year's system looks like it won't happen it's looking like the first week of Jan will be a dud outside of the lake belts.  Hopefully mid Jan brings something of interest lol.

[DaveNay]

35 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Now that the New Year's system looks like it won't happen it's looking like the first week of Jan will be a dud outside of the lake belts.  Hopefully mid Jan brings something of interest lol.

After that, there will only be 7 weeks of met winter remaining.

[LansingWeather]

1 hour ago, DaveNay said:

After that, there will only be 7 weeks of met winter remaining.

Even worse for me, I head back home around feb 3rd and havent seen more than a 1/4" of snow so far. I havent seen snow since february! Sucks because I love snow and so far its been trash.

[Hoosier]

New Year's Eve is suddenly starting to look a little interesting for somebody.

[snowlover2]

43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

New Year's Eve is suddenly starting to look a little interesting for somebody.

Looking more rainy than anything.

[Stebo]

2 runs in a row of nearly pitching a shut out for snow here locally. Warm and dry, rain, cold and dry. It is just going to be a winter like that.

[RCNYILWX]

New Year's Eve is suddenly starting to look a little interesting for somebody.

Can see what you're saying, just taking 00z operational Euro as example. Southern stream wave coming up out of western Gulf region looks pretty juiced and there will be northern stream energy diving in across the northern Plains. Phase is narrowly missed, which would have served to deepen the surface low, pull in much colder air quicker and markedly expand cold sector precip. As it stands on 00z Euro op, system is mostly southern stream driven and thus warmer and gets only so far north and then sheared out eastward.

There are a few 00z EPS and GEFS members that show the phase occurring and spin up a deep surface low with well developed cold sector precip. Wouldn't put high odds on it occurring right now, but worth watching for a few days.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[buckeye]

6 hours ago, Stebo said:

2 runs in a row of nearly pitching a shut out for snow here locally. Warm and dry, rain, cold and dry. It is just going to be a winter like that.

What amazes me is the lack of 300hr+ fantasy storms and polar vortex visits the gfs almost always spits out this time of year.  We can't even score the proverbial weenie on a stick.

Not sure if that's good or bad.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Had it not been for the early season storm, Hoosier would be firing up the futility thread right now. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Had it not been for the early season storm, Hoosier would be firing up the futility thread right now. 

lol for sure.  For some perspective, ORD could not see another flake until January 11 and still be in a surplus.  

[michsnowfreak]

What is that the weeklies look good. I certainly hope so!

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

What is that the weeklies look good. I certainly hope so!

What is your sourcing on this, my guess is the NE subforum, what is good for them isn't for us more often than not. Most of the time beyond day 15 has troughing in the east but it is centered over us or even further east, that would have a tendency to favor the east coast.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Stebo said:

What is your sourcing on this, my guess is the NE subforum, what is good for them isn't for us more often than not. Most of the time beyond day 15 has troughing in the east but it is centered over us or even further east, that would have a tendency to favor the east coast.

 I did see that new englanders liked the weeklies lol, but my source was actually a weather friend who lives in Port Huron. A much colder look and quite clippery. He also said it's looking like he said all along, February would be our most active month of the Winter.  Granted it's not the best look for storms, but it's far better than this abortion of a December we've had. The  45 day EPS mean snowfall (Dec 27-Feb 9) for DTW was around 15". We've had a lot of great winters this decade, every Winter will not be good or else average would not be average anymore. I really thought this Winter would be a better, but after a great Nov, Dec has been hell and ill take what i can get.

[buckeye]

mjo trend doesn't look good.   The lates euro takes it from 6 into the COD vs. previous runs in which it took it across 7 and 8 at low amplitude.   Meanwhile the gefs takes it into 7 at higher amplitude but then curls it back towards 6.

Really a lot of conflicting signals once you get past about day 10....it's like everything is on the table from a torch to a full on suppressed arctic outbreak.

[buckeye]

10 hours ago, Stebo said:

What is your sourcing on this, my guess is the NE subforum, what is good for them isn't for us more often than not. Most of the time beyond day 15 has troughing in the east but it is centered over us or even further east, that would have a tendency to favor the east coast.

According to the MA and NE forums there hasn't been a sub-epic euro weekly run since October.   Boston is even worse off than us in snowfall to date, not to mention DC as well.

[RCNYILWX]

mjo trend doesn't look good.   The lates euro takes it from 6 into the COD vs. previous runs in which it took it across 7 and 8 at low amplitude.   Meanwhile the gefs takes it into 7 at higher amplitude but then curls it back towards 6. Really a lot of conflicting signals once you get past about day 10....it's like everything is on the table from a torch to a full on suppressed arctic outbreak.

 

Caution is advised with the RMM plots right now due to a westerly wind burst causing interference and "masking" the likely true MJO propagation into colder phases with time. Also, expect significant run to run variability/volatility due to everything going on with forcing from the tropics. 

 

Good thread by Michael Ventrice here: https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1078661726906789888

 

Excellent post here about it:

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1520-eastern-us-dec-2018-consolidated-discussion-obs/?do=findComment&comment=113432

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

[iluvsnow]

Mother nature observed all of the prognosticators bellowing an epic winter for the east. She listened to the hype all November into early December. Then she said....I have other plans. Then as December came and went with only a whimper...the forecasters cried....the hounds of winter will come calling mid January. Mom nature may have other plans. The new replacement GFS operational for mid January...as of noon 12/28.....man that's one ugly Pacific.....

[Stebo]

30 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Mother nature observed all of the prognosticators bellowing an epic winter for the east. She listened to the hype all November into early December. Then she said....I have other plans. Then as December came and went with only a whimper...the forecasters cried....the hounds of winter will come calling mid January. Mom nature may have other plans. The new replacement GFS operational for mid January...as of noon 12/28.....man that's one ugly Pacific.....

I wish that it was May.

[zinski1990]

love how its colder every where else except for eastern us too 

[ILSNOW]

you can dream

 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

I bet my life this verifies.

Well, it's been nice knowing you.