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Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowlover2

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The Christmas miracle on the Euro has a surface low north of Paducah KY on Christmas morning and this weather-type map at 18z. If this were to happen, I would be playing in the snow in Ohio. There is little agreement between this and the GFS and the Canadian. The GFS has a small ridge at 500mb in Ohio/Indiana at this time frame. 

TQvNYxr.png

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

The Christmas miracle on the Euro has a surface low north of Paducah KY on Christmas morning and this weather-type map at 18z. If this were to happen, I would be playing in the snow in Ohio. There is little agreement between this and the GFS and the Canadian. The GFS has a small ridge at 500mb in Ohio/Indiana at this time frame. 

TQvNYxr.png

0z GGEM had something like this but lost it at 12z and now Euro has it. Will be interesting to see if they all can pick up on it or lose it.

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Regarding the near-term system, I was reading the Florida afds and they were actually discussing minor storm surge.  I recall surge happening in the Superstorm and probably some other non tropical systems, but just shows we are dealing with an unusually intense/windy system for so far south.

Probably will get a changeover to wet snow around here tomorrow morning, with perhaps some lake effect component.

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25 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Looking like clobbering time up north in about a week. Hopefully that storm spreads as wide of a swath of snow as is physically possible; it'll play nicely into any snow-pack considerations for future events. 

We need it badly here in WI. Especially in the Northwoods. 

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14 minutes ago, XfireLOW said:

...and pretty much everywhere else in the central part of North America as well.  

image.png.687b2b01659ac825c835127481b50f1f.png

Preaching to the choir my friend, all northern areas are hurting. Hopefully this progged pattern change brings better opportunities. You know its been bad start to the year when Southern Minn and parts of Iowa have more snow on the ground then in Northern Michigan. 

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I'll bite on some Xmas snow. I'm back in the region for the holidays; going to school on the west coast and the storm tracking just isn't the same!

End of the NAM now showing the 23-24th wave with some pre-Xmas flakes. Hard to say if it will be White Christmas material but considering the bare ground now I'd take it.

Beyond that, looks like a system around the 27-28th and one around New Year's as well. The former seems like a rainer, too far north with the track. But the latter can hopefully plough into some nice cold air (and northern snow pack) brought down by the first system and spread some wealth. Active period at least.

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2 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Preaching to the choir my friend, all northern areas are hurting. Hopefully this progged pattern change brings better opportunities. You know its been bad start to the year when Southern Minn and parts of Iowa have more snow on the ground then in Northern Michigan. 

For extreme NW Minnesota and SE Manitoba the weather patterns over last 18-24 months have been dry overall, so the lack of snow really has more to do with lack of moisture than the temperature patterns.   September 2017 we got about 6" of rain in 3 weeks and this fall had a similar stretch in Sept-October.  Without those two stretches of rainfall this area would be in serious drought.  Meanwhile I know not more than 50-60 miles south and east of me its seems to be constantly raining. 

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Yea, I was literally just speaking with someone this evening, about how consistent the models have been with the mid-late week system, compared to all the other energy flying around before. But the midweek system, hasn't budged at all....and then tonight's run of the GEM and GFS both shifted southeast a good bit.

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8 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

The GFS and GEM have uprooted the past like three days' worth of trends with next week's snowstorm. I do not envy the people who just had 15 inches of snow disappear from underneath them, even if it's only for one run:

gfs_asnow_us_34.png

gfs_asnow_us_33.png

I noticed that as well, for almost week they have been showing a strong cutter and now shifted quite a bit south which is a welcome site. Although certainly dont think this will be the last move. Also note is the GFSV3 which ha sbeen consistently further south for next weeks storm is now where the GFS has been so basically trey flipped.  Anyone care to share what the Euro doing no longer have access?

 

GFS.JPG

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21 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

I noticed that as well, for almost week they have been showing a strong cutter and now shifted quite a bit south which is a welcome site. Although certainly dont think this will be the last move. Also note is the GFSV3 which ha sbeen consistently further south for next weeks storm is now where the GFS has been so basically trey flipped.  Anyone care to share what the Euro doing no longer have access?

 

 

Euro has a system around 168 that goes from south dakota to n. minn.   Then is looks ready to go bonkers with a deepening trough in the central US and a pressing cold high from the north at 240.   Verbatim, the euro looks to crush someone beyond 240....but hell, extrapolating the euro beyond 240 is like extrapolating the nam beyond 84.

 

edit:  looking at the other maps for 240 euro...looks more like a progressive system that would probably hit well east and south of us.  So the quick answer is first one misses all of to the nw and the next one misses all of us to the se.  Merry Christmas:grinch:

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16 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Euro has a system around 168 that goes from south dakota to n. minn.   Then is looks ready to go bonkers with a deepening trough in the central US and a pressing cold high from the north at 240.   Verbatim, the euro looks to crush someone beyond 240....but hell, extrapolating the euro beyond 240 is like extrapolating the nam beyond 84.

 

edit:  looking at the other maps for 240 euro...looks more like a progressive system that would probably hit well east and south of us.  So the quick answer is first one misses all of to the nw and the next one misses all of us to the se.  Merry Christmas:grinch:

Snow to left of me, snow to right, here I am stuck in the middle with you.....

Same old song & dance. Been like this for years around here. 

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Models seem to be picking up on the Christmas miracle the euro was putting down a few days ago...doesn’t appear like it’d be much at all but it’d definitely be nice to see flakes flying on Christmas. 
DA44A76C-2C9B-4CFD-AE92-347DC8A000E0.thumb.png.13f06f6b191dcb82768a8638dce6ea56.png
3EAE2C94-5102-43A2-8CC5-2A5AE5DD3C48.thumb.png.8473b9c69184b10e114aec23f08d363b.png
69B33712-0FBE-4CE3-AC5D-3231770C59B5.thumb.png.9d91868136cc47e387d8c2ad94569fb8.png
Outer hours of the NAM caveats apply, but when you're hoping for a Christmas miracle, that 12z run is better than nothing.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Might even be some thunderstorms to contend with on Thursday afternoon and evening. 3km CAPE is maximized ahead of a strong mid level jet. Dew points are progged on the GFS and FV3 to get into the mid 50s in Central IL with some upper 50s to near 60 further south. At least something to watch.

Screen Shot 2018-12-22 at 9.54.49 AM.png

500mb thursday.png

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2 hours ago, ILwxchr said:

Might even be some thunderstorms to contend with on Thursday afternoon and evening. 3km CAPE is maximized ahead of a strong mid level jet. Dew points are progged on the GFS and FV3 to get into the mid 50s in Central IL with some upper 50s to near 60 further south. At least something to watch.

Screen Shot 2018-12-22 at 9.54.49 AM.png

500mb thursday.png

The old "where was this in the spring" trough. That would have one hell of a setup any other time of the year.

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35 minutes ago, ams30721us said:

Surprisingly, 00z NAM still pretty excited about spitting out some light snow for portions of the Sub Monday night into Tuesday.

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh48-69.gif

 

I'd take it. IIRC, the last accumulating snowfall we've had here was the Thanksgiving blizzard... it's been almost a month.

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Next system of interest after the Thu-Fri rainer could be the big system consistently showing up on the models around New Years.  GFS/FV3 have both been pretty consistent in showing a big storm around that time, and now the op Euro has it as well.  It's looking like it won't cut as far northwest as the Thu-Fri system, so more of the sub has a shot at getting some decent snows if trends continue.  

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