Hoosier Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 00z Euro got a little colder/snowier back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: CRAS - Chronic Ridiculously Amplified Solutions *pure entertainment value, don't take seriously* You should be deleted for posting the CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Christmas eve-Christmas morning miracle for parts of the western and central sub on 12z GEM and a not disastrous 00z Euro favoring northward extent. Obviously can't put any stock yet in the op runs verbatim but taking into account some recent op and ensemble members there *may* be hope for a clipper/hybrid or 2 to put down light-moderate accums somewhere in the Sat-Tue timeframe (likely favoring northward extent) and brief LES windows. Current signs are then pointing toward a torchy cutter for most except maybe far north and west sub Wed-Fri period. Would be nice if we could get even a bare minimum white Christmas here in northern IL in what's been a crappy month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Christmas eve-Christmas morning miracle for parts of the western and central sub on 12z GEM and a not disastrous 00z Euro favoring northward extent. Obviously can't put any stock yet in the op runs verbatim but taking into account some recent op and ensemble members there *may* be hope for a clipper/hybrid or 2 to put down light-moderate accums somewhere in the Sat-Tue timeframe (likely favoring northward extent) and brief LES windows. Current signs are then pointing toward a torchy cutter for most except maybe far north and west sub Wed-Fri period. Would be nice if we could get even a bare minimum white Christmas here in northern IL in what's been a crappy month. That would be a race against time for Chicago to fit the technical definition of a white Christmas per 00z Euro, though I guess having snow falling at any time would be satisfactory for the masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That would be a race against time for Chicago to fit the technical definition of a white Christmas per 00z Euro, though I guess having snow falling at any time would be satisfactory for the masses. Euro also had the quick hitter on Sat. night-Sunday so was grouping that and Christmas day system in. Not gonna have any real expectations going in and hope things work out here and for others. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 18, 2018 Author Share Posted December 18, 2018 27 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Christmas eve-Christmas morning miracle for parts of the western and central sub on 12z GEM and a not disastrous 00z Euro favoring northward extent. Obviously can't put any stock yet in the op runs verbatim but taking into account some recent op and ensemble members there *may* be hope for a clipper/hybrid or 2 to put down light-moderate accums somewhere in the Sat-Tue timeframe (likely favoring northward extent) and brief LES windows. Current signs are then pointing toward a torchy cutter for most except maybe far north and west sub Wed-Fri period. Would be nice if we could get even a bare minimum white Christmas here in northern IL in what's been a crappy month. Appears that colder air comes back south after that storm setting up a potentially interesting storm for New Years eve/day. 2 weeks out and hard to get excited about it yet but it has consistently shown up on the GFS/FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 39 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Appears that colder air comes back south after that storm setting up a potentially interesting storm for New Years eve/day. 2 weeks out and hard to get excited about it yet but it has consistently shown up on the GFS/FV3. This is the 27th storm on the last FV3 run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 I am a little wary about the complexity of the setup and even convection affecting the surface low strength/track, but assuming the latest models are handling things pretty well, this has a shot to be a record/near record low pressure for December for parts of the Southeast into the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 We'll see what the 12Z EPS has to say, but the signal for a trough to the west and ridge to the east type of scenario past D7 is looking pretty strong based on the ensemble runs I've seen in recent days. The evolution of the pattern on both the EPS and GEFS with the persistent troughing leads me to believe that either the ejection of energy/vorticity through the long wave has chaotic timing or perhaps more likely is that there could be multiple pockets of energy/vorticity translating through the long wave and into the heart of the CONUS. Either way a period of active weather between Christmas and New Year for parts the CONUS is looking like a pretty reasonable call to me. I'm just hoping we don't see these hypothetical pulses of energy cutting off and burying themselves in the southwest. I have to be honest...I'm not liking how the EPS is currently showing the troughing pattern getting stuck to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 It's nice to see a few model runs dropping a surprise Christmas snowfall in Iowa, including two straight runs of the euro. It's still far off, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 16 hours ago, Malacka11 said: If anyone hasn't seen it yet, here's another reason why the NE forums are a bit happy right around now: Below is the 12z iteration of the GFS on New Year's Day. This points out the difference between our subforum rationally discussing the possibilities and the EC out on a 300+ hr GFS op run, FV3 or otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Below is the 12z iteration of the GFS on New Year's Day. This points out the difference between our subforum rationally discussing the possibilities and the EC out on a 300+ hr GFS op run, FV3 or otherwise. exactly Can you imagine what the ratio of digital bytes spent to inches of snow received is over there by the end of a winter season? My God the paragraphs and paragraphs explaining, disecting, and atmospherically anal-probing a 10 day pattern that ends up yielding nothing. Then the same guy that writes a 4 paragraph post complete with graphs and maps explaining why he's excited about the upcoming 3 week pattern, turns around the next day and writes 4 paragraphs complete with graphs and maps explaining why he's ready to punt the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 18, 2018 Author Share Posted December 18, 2018 18z GFS has a quicker change to snow for the weekend storm especially for central/east OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 00Z Wed and to a greater extent 12z Wed model cycle will pretty much have everything we need into the RAOB network. Fairly sensitive setup though with the timing/degree of phasing and mild thermal profiles, so there may still be an unusual amount of disagreement/waffling in the fine details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Not a horrible look for the end of the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 21 minutes ago, Nelson said: Not a horrible look for the end of the year... Yeah, nice east based -NAO there, that usually is favorable for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Hot off the press from donsutherland. Main takeaway: Winter 2018-19 remains on track to see above to much above normal snowfall in the Great Lakes Region, Middle Atlantic Region, and southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 19, 2018 Author Share Posted December 19, 2018 0z NAM a little west with the secondary low and showing more snow over much of Ohio although the accumulation map shows any accumulation north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 19, 2018 Author Share Posted December 19, 2018 0z GGEM has a healthy clipper for Christmas eve. 0z GFS shows no precip even though it appears to have decent looking energy on the vort map. 12z Euro has this clipper too. 0z Euro TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 0z GGEM has a healthy clipper for Christmas eve. 0z GFS shows no precip even though it appears to have decent looking energy on the vort map. 12z Euro has this clipper too. 0z Euro TBD. 4" over my house. Lock it in! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Until we can get a pattern flip with some entrenched cold air most of these hope and pray slush events are non starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Looks like the next system will be the big rainer around the 27th. Unfortunately not a snow system for most of us, but hopefully we can get some thunder out of it. Euro showing temps/dews in the 50s in the instability axis ahead of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Hot off the press from donsutherland. Main takeaway: Winter 2018-19 remains on track to see above to much above normal snowfall in the Great Lakes Region, Middle Atlantic Region, and southern New England. Don won me over during the winter of 2011/12. I remember I was in Hawaii in early January and every mornng I was checking the weather back home to see what it would be like when I got back. I remember most forecasters like DT were touting a pattern change to much colder later in January and into February but Don was adamant that winter was essentially over and there would be no pattern change or any incoming sustained cold. We all know what happened.... huge win for the Don. This year I'm rooting for Roger Smith's forecast to verify. He's calling for a cold snowy period from mid Jan to mid Feb and then winter exiting quickly and early. That would be my perfect winter. Unfortunately he is the only forecasters I've seen calling for an early end to winter. Most want to keep the cold going into April...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like the next system will be the big rainer around the 27th. Unfortunately not a snow system for most of us, but hopefully we can get some thunder out of it. Euro showing temps/dews in the 50s in the instability axis ahead of the cold front. yeah 'id be concerned about a possible cold core or high shear/low cape event if that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 hours ago, buckeye said: Don won me over during the winter of 2011/12. I remember I was in Hawaii in early January and every mornng I was checking the weather back home to see what it would be like when I got back. I remember most forecasters like DT were touting a pattern change to much colder later in January and into February but Don was adamant that winter was essentially over and there would be no pattern change or any incoming sustained cold. We all know what happened.... huge win for the Don. This year I'm rooting for Roger Smith's forecast to verify. He's calling for a cold snowy period from mid Jan to mid Feb and then winter exiting quickly and early. That would be my perfect winter. Unfortunately he is the only forecasters I've seen calling for an early end to winter. Most want to keep the cold going into April...ugh. Don is great because he does not have a warm or cold bias. Even some of the greats seem to have a bias one way or the other. Thats why i buy him a lot faster than i would jb saying cold and snowy. Likewise, if i heard him say warm it would be a red flag unlike if i heard some of tne warmingistas saying warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 The 12z GFS is still showing a Christmas clipper...............for Bo and Will The Canadian at least depicts returns down the WI/IL and MI/IN line and even gives Toronto some flakes on Christmas evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 .....also if only that Boxing Day 1040 high would be displaced a couple of hundred miles southeast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Hopefully late month doesn't pass without excitement. That is a nice looking pattern in the means with the trough positioning and cold air to play with, but sometimes you fail to produce in a good pattern and manage to get something out of a bad pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Any takers on latest Christmas fantasy hope, this time on 12z Euro? A decent amount of Euro ensemble members show the system, but we're still far enough out that it could be a fake out too. Would like to see several more Euro cycles with the signal and better support on other guidance.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 43 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Any takers on latest Christmas fantasy hope, this time on 12z Euro? A decent amount of Euro ensemble members show the system, but we're still far enough out that it could be a fake out too. Would like to see several more Euro cycles with the signal and better support on other guidance. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 6 days out on the Euro used to be almost a lock, not any more. Get it to 3 days & maybe, just maybe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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