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Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowlover2

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Christmas eve-Christmas morning miracle for parts of the western and central sub on 12z GEM and a not disastrous 00z Euro favoring northward extent.

 

Obviously can't put any stock yet in the op runs verbatim but taking into account some recent op and ensemble members there *may* be hope for a clipper/hybrid or 2 to put down light-moderate accums somewhere in the Sat-Tue timeframe (likely favoring northward extent) and brief LES windows. Current signs are then pointing toward a torchy cutter for most except maybe far north and west sub Wed-Fri period.

 

Would be nice if we could get even a bare minimum white Christmas here in northern IL in what's been a crappy month.

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Christmas eve-Christmas morning miracle for parts of the western and central sub on 12z GEM and a not disastrous 00z Euro favoring northward extent.

 

Obviously can't put any stock yet in the op runs verbatim but taking into account some recent op and ensemble members there *may* be hope for a clipper/hybrid or 2 to put down light-moderate accums somewhere in the Sat-Tue timeframe (likely favoring northward extent) and brief LES windows. Current signs are then pointing toward a torchy cutter for most except maybe far north and west sub Wed-Fri period.

 

Would be nice if we could get even a bare minimum white Christmas here in northern IL in what's been a crappy month.

 

 

 

 

That would be a race against time for Chicago to fit the technical definition of a white Christmas per 00z Euro, though I guess having snow falling at any time would be satisfactory for the masses.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:
That would be a race against time for Chicago to fit the technical definition of a white Christmas per 00z Euro, though I guess having snow falling at any time would be satisfactory for the masses.

Euro also had the quick hitter on Sat. night-Sunday so was grouping that and Christmas day system in. Not gonna have any real expectations going in and hope things work out here and for others.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

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27 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Christmas eve-Christmas morning miracle for parts of the western and central sub on 12z GEM and a not disastrous 00z Euro favoring northward extent.

 

Obviously can't put any stock yet in the op runs verbatim but taking into account some recent op and ensemble members there *may* be hope for a clipper/hybrid or 2 to put down light-moderate accums somewhere in the Sat-Tue timeframe (likely favoring northward extent) and brief LES windows. Current signs are then pointing toward a torchy cutter for most except maybe far north and west sub Wed-Fri period.

 

Would be nice if we could get even a bare minimum white Christmas here in northern IL in what's been a crappy month.

 

 

 

 

Appears that colder air comes back south after that storm setting up a potentially interesting storm for New Years eve/day. 2 weeks out and hard to get excited about it yet but it has consistently shown up on the GFS/FV3.

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39 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Appears that colder air comes back south after that storm setting up a potentially interesting storm for New Years eve/day. 2 weeks out and hard to get excited about it yet but it has consistently shown up on the GFS/FV3.

This is the 27th storm on the last FV3 run:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

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I am a little wary about the complexity of the setup and even convection affecting the surface low strength/track, but assuming the latest models are handling things pretty well, this has a shot to be a record/near record low pressure for December for parts of the Southeast into the mid-Atlantic.

DecemberRecordLowSLPs.thumb.gif.e692080a31381f03de04ab0a6a0a9f10.gif

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We'll see what the 12Z EPS has to say, but the signal for a trough to the west and ridge to the east type of scenario past D7 is looking pretty strong based on the ensemble runs I've seen in recent days. The evolution of the pattern on both the EPS and GEFS with the persistent troughing leads me to believe that either the ejection of energy/vorticity through the long wave has chaotic timing or perhaps more likely is that there could be multiple pockets of energy/vorticity translating through the long wave and into the heart of the CONUS. Either way a period of active weather between Christmas and New Year for parts the CONUS is looking like a pretty reasonable call to me. I'm just hoping we don't see these hypothetical pulses of energy cutting off and burying themselves in the southwest. I have to be honest...I'm not liking how the EPS is currently showing the troughing pattern getting stuck to the west.

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16 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

If anyone hasn't seen it yet, here's another reason why the NE forums are a bit happy right around now:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_59.png

 

Below is the 12z iteration of the GFS on New Year's Day. This points out the difference between our subforum rationally discussing the possibilities and the EC :weenie: out on a 300+ hr GFS op run, FV3 or otherwise.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.thumb.png.8e21deb96938bf835b60606dd9b5158f.png

 

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5 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

 

Below is the 12z iteration of the GFS on New Year's Day. This points out the difference between our subforum rationally discussing the possibilities and the EC :weenie: out on a 300+ hr GFS op run, FV3 or otherwise.

 

 

 

:lol: exactly

Can you imagine what the ratio of digital bytes spent to inches of snow received is over there by the end of a winter season?  My God the paragraphs and paragraphs explaining, disecting, and atmospherically anal-probing a 10 day pattern that ends up yielding nothing.   Then the same guy that writes a 4 paragraph post complete with graphs and maps explaining why he's excited about the upcoming 3 week pattern, turns around the next day and writes 4 paragraphs complete with graphs and maps explaining why he's ready to punt the next month.  :blink:

 

 

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00Z Wed and to a greater extent 12z Wed model cycle will pretty much have everything we need into the RAOB network.  Fairly sensitive setup though with the timing/degree of phasing and mild thermal profiles, so there may still be an unusual amount of disagreement/waffling in the fine details.

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14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hot off the press from donsutherland.

 

Main takeaway: Winter 2018-19 remains on track to see above to much above normal snowfall in the Great Lakes Region, Middle Atlantic Region, and southern New England.

Don won me over during the winter of 2011/12.    I remember I was in Hawaii in early January and every mornng I was checking the weather back home to see what it would be like when I got back.   I remember most forecasters like DT were touting a pattern change to much colder later in January and into February but Don was adamant that winter was essentially over and there would be no pattern change or any incoming sustained cold.

We all know what happened....   huge win for the Don.

This year I'm rooting for Roger Smith's forecast to verify.  He's calling for a cold snowy period from mid Jan to mid Feb and then winter exiting quickly and early.   That would be my perfect winter.    Unfortunately he is  the only forecasters I've seen calling for an early end to winter.  Most want to keep the cold going into April...ugh.

 

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the next system will be the big rainer around the 27th.  Unfortunately not a snow system for most of us, but hopefully we can get some thunder out of it.  Euro showing temps/dews in the 50s in the instability axis ahead of the cold front.  

yeah 'id be concerned about a possible cold core or high shear/low cape event if that pans out.

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

Don won me over during the winter of 2011/12.    I remember I was in Hawaii in early January and every mornng I was checking the weather back home to see what it would be like when I got back.   I remember most forecasters like DT were touting a pattern change to much colder later in January and into February but Don was adamant that winter was essentially over and there would be no pattern change or any incoming sustained cold.

We all know what happened....   huge win for the Don.

This year I'm rooting for Roger Smith's forecast to verify.  He's calling for a cold snowy period from mid Jan to mid Feb and then winter exiting quickly and early.   That would be my perfect winter.    Unfortunately he is  the only forecasters I've seen calling for an early end to winter.  Most want to keep the cold going into April...ugh.

 

Don is great because he does not have a warm or cold bias. Even some of the greats seem to have a bias one way or the other. Thats why i buy him a lot faster than i would jb saying cold and snowy. Likewise, if i heard him say warm it would be a red flag unlike if i heard some of tne warmingistas saying warm.

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Any takers on latest Christmas fantasy hope, this time on 12z Euro? A decent amount of Euro ensemble members show the system, but we're still far enough out that it could be a fake out too. Would like to see several more Euro cycles with the signal and better support on other guidance.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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43 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Any takers on latest Christmas fantasy hope, this time on 12z Euro? A decent amount of Euro ensemble members show the system, but we're still far enough out that it could be a fake out too. Would like to see several more Euro cycles with the signal and better support on other guidance.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

6 days out on the Euro used to be almost a lock, not any more. Get it to 3 days & maybe, just maybe....

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