Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Did somebody say 1994? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Did somebody say 1994? Wow, -30 down close to the KY border? Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nokywx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Wow, -30 down close to the KY border? Impressive. Shelbyville, KY actually got down to -37. Between Lexington and Louisville, and I'm sure some unique topographical effects were in play there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FWIW, the 12z FV3 is going crazy again with an arctic outbreak toward the end of January. Besides the fact that it's 12-16 days out, and has been pushed back in time a bit relative to a few days ago...there is tremendous cold sitting in southern Canada that could be tapped eventually. Ideally, we would need a strong storm tracking NNE through the GL/OV and/or a potent clipper to drag down the cold air. Hopefully it will happen at some point. Even if the PV does come down for a visit, even I would be forced to admit that the temps shown on the FV3 are overdone. For posterity: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: FWIW, the 12z FV3 is going crazy again with an arctic outbreak toward the end of January. Besides the fact that it's 12-16 days out, and has been pushed back in time a bit relative to a few days ago...there is tremendous cold sitting in southern Canada that could be tapped eventually. Ideally, we would need a strong storm tracking NNE through the GL/OV and/or a potent clipper to drag down the cold air. Hopefully it will happen at some point. Even if the PV does come down for a visit, even I would be forced to admit that the temps shown on the FV3 are overdone. For posterity: That is save worthy though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 hours ago, IWXwx said: That is save worthy though. Yeah, definitely...and then the 18z FV3 outdoes it somehow, at least for the upper midwest. There is a 462 dm thickness contour in southern Canada at hours 306 and 318. To put this in perspective: you very rarely see 474 thicknesses...and I may have seen a 468 once in the past 10-15 years...but I can't ever remember seeing 462. This is shocking cold...even for a model prog 13 days out. Here is another image for the archives. -56 in Ontario and -49 just north of the MN arrowhead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 imagine if timing lines up with one of these deep troughs and one of these pieces of energy that keep flying in from the north and south.... imagine a triple phaser with that airmass /\ available . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The new run of the Euro weeklies is basically like 2014, wire to wire and averaged out, the core of the coldest anomalies centered over the central and western sub. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Yeah, definitely...and then the 18z FV3 outdoes it somehow, at least for the upper midwest. There is a 462 dm thickness contour in southern Canada at hours 306 and 318. To put this in perspective: you very rarely see 474 thicknesses...and I may have seen a 468 once in the past 10-15 years...but I can't ever remember seeing 462. This is shocking cold...even for a model prog 13 days out. Here is another image for the archives. -56 in Ontario and -49 just north of the MN arrowhead. It looks like 850 mb temps get close to -50C in the core of that airmass north of the border. That is the height of absurdity. I mean, it has to modify at least a little, right? -40C has made it into the US on rare occasions though. Here's a forecast sounding I pulled from southern Canada. The skew-t can't even contain the cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Wow, amazing modeled cold. Hard to comprehend. Someone posted the EPS in the mid Atlantic forum...at day 15, departures of -15C to -20C were centered over our area. And good to hear about the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: The new run of the Euro weeklies is basically like 2014, wire to wire and averaged out, the core of the coldest anomalies centered over the central and western sub. Living E of the Rockies now, please no. Also looking at how long the cold lasted and the futility of that subsequent severe season, please no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Yeah, definitely...and then the 18z FV3 outdoes it somehow, at least for the upper midwest. There is a 462 dm thickness contour in southern Canada at hours 306 and 318. To put this in perspective: you very rarely see 474 thicknesses...and I may have seen a 468 once in the past 10-15 years...but I can't ever remember seeing 462. This is shocking cold...even for a model prog 13 days out. Here is another image for the archives. -56 in Ontario and -49 just north of the MN arrowhead. positively toasty in The Mitt. Just don't add wind like 6-Jan-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Living E of the Rockies now, please no. Also looking at how long the cold lasted and the futility of that subsequent severe season, please no.It appears that the long expected effects from the downwelling of the SSW will be coming, so the sort of output on the weeklies is not unexpected. From what I've read both last March and April were significantly affected by the Feb 2018 SSW. Can't expect the same sort of behavior this time, but perhaps Feb and part of March and then things break. I guess the hope would be that with everything shifted a month earlier, would give time to get back into a better pattern earlier, as opposed to last March and April both being toast and then quickly flipping to summer in May. I am with you on not wanting this to last deep into spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The 12z GFS has the longest duration single snow event I've ever seen modeled here next week. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 That system on the GFS next week has snow in Chicago for 2 3/4 days. 15-20” that run.Would put back to back big dogs in play.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 29 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 12z GFS has the longest duration single snow event I've ever seen modeled here next week. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: That system on the GFS next week has snow in Chicago for 2 3/4 days. 15-20” that run. Would put back to back big dogs in play. . Just for fun, 12z GFS 10 day total snowfall (kuchera). Congrats Hoosier... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 41 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: That system on the GFS next week has snow in Chicago for 2 3/4 days. 15-20” that run. Would put back to back big dogs in play. . Not only that, also has Chicago constantly below zero for 5 1/2 days straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Just for fun, 12z GFS 10 day total snowfall (kuchera). Congrats Hoosier... Everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 40 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Just for fun, 12z GFS 10 day total snowfall (kuchera). Congrats Hoosier... That's with the first system "only" dropping about 8". Good stuff. I've been thinking about what the max snowfall could be over the next 10 days in this area if everything pans out. Not even talking about likely, just possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 LOL at EURO HR 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: LOL at EURO HR 216 Nice storm. Rapid snowmelt would be an issue for some areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 ECMWF, like the GfS, with another big dog for the following system. 24”+ across the Chicago area. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ECMWF, like the GfS, with another big dog for the following system. 24”+ across the Chicago area. . 24"+ for both storms combined or just for the 2nd big dog? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, RobertSul said: 24"+ for both storms combined or just for the 2nd big dog? On the off chance that it's just the latter storm, then it isn't a big dog anymore. It's a gargantuan canine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, RobertSul said: 24"+ for both storms combined or just for the 2nd big dog? Just off of the second storm alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 52 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ECMWF, like the GfS, with another big dog for the following system. 24”+ across the Chicago area. . FWIW...over the past few days, HM has been harping on a pattern that could be conducive to a Midwest blizzard around this timeframe. Still way out there, but will be curious to see his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just off of the second storm alone.Could be a special week coming up. Thanks for the post . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Not only that, also has Chicago constantly below zero for 5 1/2 days straight as if the state isn't in bad enough shape, that'd get people to reconsider staying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: as if the state isn't in bad enough shape, that'd get people to reconsider staying. Honestly if I was considering leaving, I think 5+ days of not getting above 0 would be the last straw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Honestly if I was considering leaving, I think 5+ days of not getting above 0 would be the last straw Yep, nothing else is gonna get better any time soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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