SchaumburgStormer Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 12z GFS with numerous chances for flakes through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 The latest Euro shows the snow a little bit east of yesterday. It has some 6-10" of snow near Davenport, but none for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 12z Euro looks to have shifted back north a bit. Assuming most of the snow misses, I'm becoming more interested locally in a period of strong winds with the long fetch down the lake, especially if the low passes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just now, Chinook said: The latest Euro shows the snow a little bit east of yesterday. It has some 6-10" of snow near Davenport, but none for Chicago That's 00z. Gotta be really careful with the timestamps on that site as they will give you an old image if the new run is not updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Wow. Major snowstorm for Rockford/DVN and NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Pretty much everything but the 12z GFS has had decent values of snow at Des Moines. So if you're in Des Moines, maybe get ready for some pre-December shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 19 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Wow. Major snowstorm for Rockford/DVN and NW I think I remember hawkeye saying that he's never had a foot of snow. Wonder what he thinks about that run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: The snow map kind of looks like December 7-10, 2009. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, The_Doctor said: The snow map kind of looks like December 7-10, 2009. I have more of a Dec 19-20, 2012 vibe versus a Dec 8-9, 2009. The 2009 cyclone was pretty intense, it got down into the 970s I believe as it moved into Michigan (my avatar). Even the 2012 cyclone was about 984mb near Chicago. Both storms produced widespread blizzard conditions but the 2012 system had a secondary deformation zone that extended down into Western and Central IL that produced blizzard conditions and 60+ mph winds. Based on last night's runs looking at the pressure gradient on the backside of this low, I was concerned somewhat about that scenario. Its too far out to say though I think at this point, even that was a very last minute change (within 8-12 hours we went from advisory to blizzard warning). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 18z GFS is quite similar to its 12z counterpart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 18z GFS similar to the euro although a bit further southeast. Looking like Eastern Iowa on both models is the hot spot for snowfall. Although the GFS is a lot weaker with the system. Only 999mb in Missouri opposed to last nights 988mb run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: 18z GFS is quite similar to its 12z counterpart Same general idea as the Euro, just a bit SE. Riding the line in MBY. Thread worthy event unfolding, who is gonna pop one up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, ILwxchr said: 18z GFS similar to the euro although a bit further southeast. Looking like Eastern Iowa on both models is the hot spot for snowfall. Although the GFS is a lot weaker with the system. Only 999mb in Missouri opposed to last nights 988mb run. It'll be over SE MI by Saturday.....Snow Magnet Activated! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Looks like there could be an overlap area that gets in on 2 November warning criteria snows just a few years apart. The other one being the November 20-21, 2015 storm: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Looks like there could be an overlap area that gets in on 2 November warning criteria snows just a few years apart. The other one being the November 20-21, 2015 storm: I'd be down with another November Death Band.Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 3 hours ago, ILwxchr said: I have more of a Dec 19-20, 2012 vibe versus a Dec 8-9, 2009. The 2009 cyclone was pretty intense, it got down into the 970s I believe as it moved into Michigan (my avatar). Even the 2012 cyclone was about 984mb near Chicago. Both storms produced widespread blizzard conditions but the 2012 system had a secondary deformation zone that extended down into Western and Central IL that produced blizzard conditions and 60+ mph winds. Based on last night's runs looking at the pressure gradient on the backside of this low, I was concerned somewhat about that scenario. Its too far out to say though I think at this point, even that was a very last minute change (within 8-12 hours we went from advisory to blizzard warning). That Dec 2012 blizzard was awesome. That's the only time I've ever seen heavy rain change to heavy snow. Usually the rain will have a tendency to lighten up a bit before it changes over to snow, and then take awhile to transition. That one went from a heavy driving rain to heavy wet snow in <10 mins. Even with the wet ground the snow started sticking pretty much instantly. Only neg about that system was the relatively short duration in all-out blizzard conditions. Picked up several inches in a short time, but it wound down a little too fast to be a really high-end event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Looks like there could be an overlap area that gets in on 2 November warning criteria snows just a few years apart. The other one being the November 20-21, 2015 storm: I remember how sharp the cut off was on the east side, rain by the lake but 5 miles inland 5" of snow. This time wouldn't be the same if something like this evolved from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 28 minutes ago, Stebo said: I remember how sharp the cut off was on the east side, rain by the lake but 5 miles inland 5" of snow. This time wouldn't be the same if something like this evolved from this system. Yeah, that was the storm that screwed downtown Chicago. Can't see it on that map but here's a zoomed in map below. Had some temperature issues around here during the morning of the 21st but then a lake enhanced band came through in the afternoon and it ripped as hard as I had ever seen it snow in November. Ended up with 6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: That Dec 2012 blizzard was awesome. That's the only time I've ever seen heavy rain change to heavy snow. Usually the rain will have a tendency to lighten up a bit before it changes over to snow, and then take awhile to transition. That one went from a heavy driving rain to heavy wet snow in <10 mins. Even with the wet ground the snow started sticking pretty much instantly. Only neg about that system was the relatively short duration in all-out blizzard conditions. Picked up several inches in a short time, but it wound down a little too fast to be a really high-end event. That really was an awesome blizzard. we got the max snowfall from that storm right here at about 20". I remember how big some of those snow piles were after the storm. It was one of the few storms that made me lose power. That doesn't happen very often around here. I also remember the winds the day after that blizzard hit. Climbing around snow piles with a blue sky and frigid winds felt downright arctic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Not sure what all the hype is on long range. Per 12z GFS it looks like poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 22 hours ago, Hoosier said: Looks like there could be an overlap area that gets in on 2 November warning criteria snows just a few years apart. The other one being the November 20-21, 2015 storm: Best storm ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 4 hours ago, pondo1000 said: Not sure what all the hype is on long range. Per 12z GFS it looks like poo. Big time poo. Hoping this upcoming storm hits north for a quick ride during the day time hours.... then it could be weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Big time poo. Hoping this upcoming storm hits north for a quick ride during the day time hours.... then it could be weeks.This time a week ago not many would have seen the potential storm that is possible at the end of the weekend in the midwest. Things can flip in a hurry. And the general trend has been cold and stormy to start the season.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 @judah47: Latest #PolarVortex (PV) forecast animation shows largest PV disruption of the still young 2018/19 season. This will likely keep #winter weather rocking and rolling for the month of December. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1065986594333777920/photo/1Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Baum said: @judah47: Latest #PolarVortex (PV) forecast animation shows largest PV disruption of the still young 2018/19 season. This will likely keep #winter weather rocking and rolling for the month of December. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1065986594333777920/photo/1 Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk It’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out. I’m not as optimistic as I was about 5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 yea, the pattern for December looks very meh.... Not a torch, but not a deep trough either. Hopefully we didn't blow our load on November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 4 hours ago, Baum said: This time a week ago not many would have seen the potential storm that is possible at the end of the weekend in the midwest. Things can flip in a hurry. And the general trend has been cold and stormy to start the season. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Euro ensembles were pretty active last night beyond this storm. Too many around here blindly follow the operational as gospel. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 GFS has a bit of a severe look out in fantasy land around the 1st - 2nd. All I have to look at right now lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 57 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: eh, I didn't see a wintry active pattern on EPS's 500mb pattern. Patterns die. I gave 1911 as a example of those 'witch' flips that occur before the main course comes. Even 1977 had breaks after the late November/early December arctic shot/snowstorms before the main course hit January 7th. We are due for a change. Might want to look again because I don't know what you were looking at. Nor did I say it was locked in winter, I said active. There was potential for some wintry systems in the mix. If you don't think the pattern looks active with the setup EPS is showing, I don't know what to say. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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