Harry Perry Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Agree with Buckeye on this... GFS, GEFS and Euro on board for a decent shot at several events in the next 10 days. All too early to really pin down, but the first looks to be next Tueaday-Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 58 minutes ago, buckeye said: So general concensus backed up with euro weeklies is a pretty cold and stormy 2 to 3 week period followed by a relaxation, (just in time for xmas of course )....then we see how long and what happens next. Things definitely look primed for an early season event or 2 for the sub before any relaxation occurs. I really hope we don’t torch too bad in time for Christmas. I hate that! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 There's something slightly odd about this loop. If you can point it out, you win my praise 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 That east coast surface low splitting and ejecting 2 lows, one to sea and one recycling through the Hudson Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, n1vek said: That east coast surface low splitting and ejecting 2 lows, one to sea and one recycling through the Hudson Bay? This. After that it actually tries to move into the northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This. After that it actually tries to move into the northern Plains. Yeah goes around the top side of the upper low. What an unusual pattern, odds of verification <1%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 32 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah goes around the top side of the upper low. What an unusual pattern, odds of verification <1%. I don't remember a low doing that, and I'm older than dirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just now, IWXwx said: I don't remember a low doing that, and I'm older than dirt. It happens more often than we think, just not at this low of latitude, usually that stuff happens up in eastern Quebec and the Labrador. It is just a wacky pattern all around for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: It happens more often than we think, just not at this low of latitude, usually that stuff happens up in eastern Quebec and the Labrador. It is just a wacky pattern all around for this time of year. Right, I meant in this part of the world. Interesting little fujiwharalike thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just now, IWXwx said: Right, I meant in this part of the world. Interesting little fujiwharalike thing. Yeah it is a result of the NAO/AO falling off a cliff. Really something to even see modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Check the 500 mb up north. Massive Artic circle block. Nothing can go north according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 On 11/20/2018 at 8:51 PM, bowtie` said: Check the 500 mb up north. Massive Artic circle block. Nothing can go north according to the GFS. Yep that is the -AO and it is pretty strong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 4 hours ago, Stebo said: Yeah goes around the top side of the upper low. What an unusual pattern, odds of verification <1%. Strange season, strange pattern. Were those the same odds that STL would be leading the MW in snowfall in mid-Nov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Hudson Bay rapidly freezing over this week, James Bay already half frozen (western half). This is allowing frigid arctic air to arrive in northern Ontario with less than usual early season modification. Looks like a very potent lake effect setup for tomorrow into Thursday. WNW type localized squalls with 12-24" potential. This reminds me of Nov 1976 when all lakes in central Ontario froze over a month to six weeks ahead of schedule and Dec-Jan were brutally cold, Feb-Mar 1977 turned exceptionally warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 5 hours ago, Stebo said: Yeah goes around the top side of the upper low. What an unusual pattern, odds of verification <1%. The models have been consistent with the lows splitting. One over Huron and another moving east over Nova Scotia. Would be a decent lake effect setup for Buffalo and consistent light accumulating snow for the rest of the forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Anyone else notice the low is pretty vertically stacked on the GFS and even shows some slight weakening as it moves eastward into the Ohio Valley? I haven't researched this much, but in my experience a slightly weaker cyclone could yield a further southern (right deviation) track? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Although it’s still far out, seems to be increasing confidence in a storm system affecting the Midwest/Ohio Valley 5-6 days out. GFS is most aggressive for now but something to watch. GFS/GEM currently has a 6-12” swath of snow through central Iowa up through southwestern Wisconsin, while the Euro is further SE with a narrower band of similar amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 GFS looks like a Lakes cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Encouraged to see that the Sun-Mon system is continuing to look fairly potent on most of the guidance. GFS-FV3 lays down over a foot of snow for eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI. That would be insane to see something like that this early for this area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 The FV3 and Euro are deeper with the trough/surface low in the Lakes at 96 hrs. That allows the incoming system to end up on the southern end of model solutions. Probably a hail mary to get this thing to track much farther south but that feature trending slower/stronger would be a way to do it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The FV3 and Euro are deeper with the trough/surface low in the Lakes at 96 hrs. That allows the incoming system to end up on the southern end of model solutions. Probably a hail mary to get this thing to track much farther south but that feature trending slower/stronger would be a way to do it. This is a fun early season system to track, but one neg is this looks like it may be sort of a thread the needle type of an event. Looks like it could end up being a relatively narrow swath of potentially warning criteria snows, with not much else outside of the main swath. Also very little warm sector precip with this wave, which is in stark contrast to the wave that precedes it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 The wind component on this has me concerned for some possible blizzard conditions somewhere. GFS was showing northerly winds of almost 30 knots. I was looking at weather.us and it was showing average surface gusts of 50 knots over Eastern Iowa. If that verifies with even 6 inches of snow, that could be big trouble. I remember on December 20, 2012 we had about 5 inches of snow in Galesburg, IL and one of the sensors clocked a 65 mph gust and it was an absolute mess with wrecks. I was in Wisconsin (unrelated).....I still got around 15 inches up there. I'm really rooting for this one to shift a little more southeast so I can get in on some backyard action. But I also have a place north of Davenport, Iowa so I can always go up there and document it too. Fun storm to track for so early in the season as Cyclone said! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 33 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: This is a fun early season system to track, but one neg is this looks like it may be sort of a thread the needle type of an event. Looks like it could end up being a relatively narrow swath of potentially warning criteria snows, with not much else outside of the main swath. Also very little warm sector precip with this wave, which is in stark contrast to the wave that precedes it. If the FV3 is right, you'll be in prime position up there in Erie. Lock it in. I know its a week out, but still fun to look at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 5 hours ago, cyclone77 said: This is a fun early season system to track, but one neg is this looks like it may be sort of a thread the needle type of an event. Looks like it could end up being a relatively narrow swath of potentially warning criteria snows, with not much else outside of the main swath. Also very little warm sector precip with this wave, which is in stark contrast to the wave that precedes it. Yea, this will be a fun one to pin down for sure. The 00z GFS shifted the Upper low track farther NW, while the 00z Euro came out looking pretty identical to the FV3 GFS from last night in terms of track/placement and potential outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 6 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Encouraged to see that the Sun-Mon system is continuing to look fairly potent on most of the guidance. GFS-FV3 lays down over a foot of snow for eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI. That would be insane to see something like that this early for this area. It's a bit early but please verify GFS-FV3! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Lets hope the 06z GFS was a hiccup, because that storm next week really crapped out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Rumour has it 12Z GFS is further south and east with the Sun-Mon threat.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, Baum said: Rumour has it 12Z GFS is further south and east with the Sun-Mon threat. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk And much weaker with the 6z / 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 The 12z cycle has shifted to having more influence of the Lakes low/trough, which is what the 00z Euro was advertising. GFS for example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 The 12z cycle has shifted to having more influence of the Lakes low/trough, which is what the 00z Euro was advertising. GFS for example The models also seem to be responding to the strong west based NAO block. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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