snowlover2 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 This is our usual thread for storm threats in the longer range that are not ready for its own thread. There appears to be a system for next Monday/Tuesday that will move along the south and then up the apps/east coast. 12z Euro has precip the farthest north/west to bring some snow to IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 40 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: This is our usual thread for storm threats in the longer range that are not ready for its own thread. There appears to be a system for next Monday/Tuesday that will move along the south and then up the apps/east coast. 12z Euro has precip the farthest north/west to bring some snow to IN/OH. I hear you and raise you this hilarious CMC output from last night: Obviously this was just some laughable model fluff (if only it weren't), but simply out of curiosity, has such a widespread event ever occurred in the history of this country? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 46 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: This is our usual thread for storm threats in the longer range that are not ready for its own thread. There appears to be a system for next Monday/Tuesday that will move along the south and then up the apps/east coast. 12z Euro has precip the farthest north/west to bring some snow to IN/OH. The ICON agrees, though it takes the system further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 3 hours ago, Malacka11 said: I hear you and raise you this hilarious CMC output from last night: Obviously this was just some laughable model fluff (if only it weren't), but simply out of curiosity, has such a widespread event ever occurred in the history of this country? Don't have a precip map handy, but I'm almost certain GHD1 covered even more (in the CONUS vs Canada I mean). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Don't have a precip map handy, but I'm almost certain GHD1 covered even more (in the CONUS vs Canada I mean). Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Wow... And most of S Michigan went to Bliz warned after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 21 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: And most of S Michigan went to Bliz warned after this. Absolute U N I T of a storm. It's strange to imagine that the locally crazy snow totals may not have even been the most impressive thing about GHD I. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 What's the latest on the Monday-ish time frame? Haven't had time to check the models or anything yet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 23 hours ago, Malacka11 said: I hear you and raise you this hilarious CMC output from last night: Obviously this was just some laughable model fluff (if only it weren't), but simply out of curiosity, has such a widespread event ever occurred in the history of this country? I remember quite a few storms that covered a ton of ground. Not those ridiculous totals, but good storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: I remember quite a few storms that covered a ton of ground. Not those ridiculous totals, but good storms. Huh. Yeah, if you discount those 24+ inch values, the would-be storm becomes a lot more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 hours ago, Malacka11 said: What's the latest on the Monday-ish time frame? Haven't had time to check the models or anything yet today. 12z Euro still taking a favorable track up the OHV.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Early week still looking decent around the OV, especially for this early in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Indeed. Somebody said a week or two ago that they had a lot of faith in this being the predominant track of the winter, and so far they're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 06Z GFS trended a little west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 WOW. Over the last few days the CFS, by far the warmest seasonal model and one with a warm bias, has almost completely ditched its warm rest of November and December idea. I have never seen it change so suddenly and drastically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, michsnowfreak said: WOW. Over the last few days the CFS, by far the warmest seasonal model and one with a warm bias, has almost completely ditched its warm rest of November and December idea. I have never seen it change so suddenly and drastically. It defaults to warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 The Euro has been advertising a fairly potent system around the 26th for a few runs now. A long ways out but something to watch. There is a lead system on the 24th that could play havoc with how the main system evolves. May cause the models fits since the two waves are close enough that their interaction could muddle things. The wave around the 26th looks like it could be quite potent if everything times out just right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I was watching this on last night's 00z run. Hopefully it doesn't pass us as a weak shortwave and then phase into another east coast bomb. 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The Euro has been advertising a fairly potent system around the 26th for a few runs now. A long ways out but something to watch. There is a lead system on the 24th that could play havoc with how the main system evolves. May cause the models fits since the two waves are close enough that their interaction could muddle things. The wave around the 26th looks like it could be quite potent if everything times out just right. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: The Euro has been advertising a fairly potent system around the 26th for a few runs now. A long ways out but something to watch. There is a lead system on the 24th that could play havoc with how the main system evolves. May cause the models fits since the two waves are close enough that their interaction could muddle things. The wave around the 26th looks like it could be quite potent if everything times out just right. 12z Euro has a nice storm on the 26th-28th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The Euro has been advertising a fairly potent system around the 26th for a few runs now. A long ways out but something to watch. There is a lead system on the 24th that could play havoc with how the main system evolves. May cause the models fits since the two waves are close enough that their interaction could muddle things. The wave around the 26th looks like it could be quite potent if everything times out just right. 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z Euro has a nice storm on the 26th-28th. Maybe the models are beginning to sniff out a big dog around the end of the month when the pattern flips to full-fledged winter as guidance is depicts the ice box opening up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 12z Euro showing a 996mb low developing in the Southern Plains and moving from Southeast Missouri into Michigan on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Could be interesting to watch. GFS has a much weaker version of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Granted it's fantasy range and the setup could change but one thing I noticed on that run is how the system basically hits a brick wall and sits in the Lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 starting to wonder if calls of an above average December, (temp-wise), ....are gonna be in trouble. Mild signals keep falling apart as we progress into late November with no long term signs of any moderation setting in. An early winter was not in the cards for a lot of the forecasts I've read. The fasten seat belt lights and the oxygen masks just dropped on LC flight 2018-19 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, buckeye said: starting to wonder if calls of an above average December, (temp-wise), ....are gonna be in trouble. Mild signals keep falling apart as we progress into late November with no long term signs of any moderation setting in. An early winter was not in the cards for a lot of the forecasts I've read. The fasten seat belt lights and the oxygen masks just dropped on LC flight 2018-19 In Nino years, December is the month that has the highest chance of being problematic. There have been good Decembers in Ninos though. So if this December ends up cold/snowy (talking more regionwide and not some narrow area that gets a good storm) then I'd say buckle up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Would sure like to lock in the 12z GEM lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 19, 2018 Author Share Posted November 19, 2018 27 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Would sure like to lock in the 12z GEM lol. Makes 2 of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 6" for columbus = bad run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 GFS about to uncork next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 This 00z GFS runs lays down a lot of snow for the Midwest in general. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 So general concensus backed up with euro weeklies is a pretty cold and stormy 2 to 3 week period followed by a relaxation, (just in time for xmas of course )....then we see how long and what happens next. Things definitely look primed for an early season event or 2 for the sub before any relaxation occurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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