cheese007 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Not sure where to put this as it spans multiple subforums but a significant portion of the activity is in AR and LA SPC discussion and risk maps: ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020907 SPC AC 020907 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0407 AM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential exists for a significant severe event to transpire day 4 (Monday) into day 5 (Tuesday) mainly from the lower MS Valley into the Southeast States. Model solutions have converged and demonstrated run to run consistency, depicting significant cyclogenesis to commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in response to an approaching intense upper jet within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into IL overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to destabilization with moderate instability possible from east TX into a portion of the Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are likely to develop along advancing cold front Monday afternoon initially from southeast OK into east TX, then spreading into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley regions Monday night. Impressive wind profiles with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat for damaging wind, tornadoes and large hail. Severe threat will continue east through portions of the Southeast states and Middle Atlantic Tuesday. ..Dial.. 11/02/2018 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Day 3 Outlook still has significant risk in Dixie Alley for Monday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 First tornado warning of the event now for the Toledo Bend area on the Texas/Louisiana border. Incoming tor watch likely for areas from east of Shreveport ne to Memphis and northern MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Confirmed TOG near Natchitoches Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Shreveport LA 414 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018 LAC043-069-127-052245- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0101.000000T0000Z-181105T2245Z/ Grant LA-Natchitoches LA-Winn LA- 414 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN GRANT...CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES AND SOUTHWESTERN WINN PARISHES... At 414 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Natchitoches, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Grant...central Natchitoches and southwestern Winn Parishes, including the following locations... St. Maurice, Natchez and Clarence. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3167 9304 3173 9310 3193 9289 3174 9272 TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 237DEG 29KT 3172 9302 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...<.75IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 With 450 or better helicity in the area and dews now advancing rapidly northward this could be a very interesting evening and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Wow, off and running and solid storm mode in N. La. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Shreveport LA 428 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018 LAC127-052245- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0101.000000T0000Z-181105T2245Z/ Winn LA- 428 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN WINN PARISH... At 427 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles north of Montgomery, or 9 miles east of Natchitoches, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... St. Maurice. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3173 9297 3177 9297 3180 9295 3183 9295 3182 9294 3185 9292 3185 9291 3186 9290 3187 9290 3190 9286 3174 9272 3171 9290 3171 9298 TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 238DEG 24KT 3176 9294 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...<.75IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 This is a bona fide long track, tornadic supercell (pair of them actually). They're not even anywhere near the Enhanced risk area, either, just on the edge of the Slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 It is concerning that we have had several confirmed tornadoes this early in the episode as well as the event coming at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Wow, off and running and solid storm mode in N. La. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 This was a likely tornado (1/2 hour ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 There's one ongoing now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Pretty quiet in here, looks like cell is producing north of Nacthitoches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 i'm here, but what's the point? stormtrack discord and twitter are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Pretty quiet in here, looks like cell is producing north of Nacthitoches. People probably waiting for winter to come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 51 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: i'm here, but what's the point? stormtrack discord and twitter are better. I agree. (Biased because im one of their mods) At which point I am going to shamelessly plug ourselves. Mods please remove if not allowed. http://bit.ly/StormtrackDiscord And to keep this post related to the event, the current cells arent going to do much in the near term as they are dealing with some poorly forecasted CINH. HRRR and other CAMs do slowly alleviate it through 07z, but given that its now after dark, any CINH accumulated would be more difficult to remove, I'd think at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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